ESL Challenger League Season 52: Europe - Cup 9
As our forecast of 20 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
No team in the race is expected here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
GenOneEU #48 · Elo 1,507
mellrenEU #91 · Elo 1,485
WBT AcademyEU #96 · Elo 1,430
VexarEU #100 · Elo 1,428
los kogutosEU #185 · Elo 1,424
Spirit Academy GreenEU #140 · Elo 1,421
Four MagicEU #141 · Elo 1,417
LPHEU #108 · Elo 1,386
Noir VerseEU #111 · Elo 1,385
KUUSAMOEU #137 · Elo 1,333
MAYBEEU #132 · Elo 1,328
benched godsEU #116 · Elo 1,328
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
MAYBE
4–2Final
—
WBT Academy
5–0Winner
<1% → <1%unchanged
Four Magic
2–1Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
los kogutos
1–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
benched gods
2–1Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
Spirit Academy Green
1–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
KUUSAMO
1–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
LPH
3–3Semi-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
Noir Verse
0–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
Vexar
0–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
mellren
0–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
GenOne
0–2Out before the quarter-finals
<1% → <1%unchanged
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 20 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 20 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 23 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.