Race to the Major

Majors are filled by direct VRS invitation from each region's own standing — Europe, Americas and Asia — not a single global list (and there are no more Regional Major Qualifiers since June 2025). Every region gets a fixed quota of slots, seeded frozen on November 2, 2026 for the next Major (Nov 25–Dec 13, 2026): its top ranks go to Stage 3, the next block to Stage 2, the next to Stage 1 — and teams below the quota miss the Major entirely.

For the global VRS line that drives tier 1 event invites, see the Race to Tier 1 Invites.

Per-region slot quotas are carried from the previous Major (Europe 18, Americas 9, Asia-Pacific 5). Model includes 8 upcoming matches before the snapshot. Each region's odds are simulated against its whole ladder, not only the rows listed here.

How to read this: ranks and slots are within each region. The highlighted divider rows mark each region's quota cutoffs — teams above a line seed into that stage, and teams below the last line miss the Major. Seeds into is the stage a team takes by its current standing (how Valve actually seeds). P(S3)/P(S2+)/P(Major) are the modelled chances of landing in that region's Stage 3, Stage 2-or-better, and any-slot bands at the snapshot — a Monte Carlo over upcoming matches that starts each team from its VRS points — mapped onto our rating scale, so a team's starting strength does not depend on how many teams the table shows — and then leans on our opponent-weighted Elo wherever we have enough recent results. For a team with a full season of games that is mostly a form reading, so a side sitting inside the cutoff on points can still show a low chance here, and one below it a high one: that disagreement is the number, not a fault in it. Momentum flags where that form would move a team versus its standing: Breaking in / Climbing = form pushing them up across a line, At risk / Sliding = currently in but trending out, Holding = no clear form signal.

Not betting advice. Every percentage on this page describes what past results imply, not what will happen. The model knows match results and nothing else — it cannot see a roster change until the new lineup has played, and it has no opinion on map vetoes or on whether a match is online or on LAN. We publish its hit rate and calibration so you can judge it for yourself. No bookmaker odds or affiliate links appear on this site.