← Race to the Major

Iowa Stormboar

Americas #31
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
aelor · H0NeST · Scorchyy · TyRa · Valter0k
Outside the profile on five of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected, opponent network and LAN wins, above it on head to head.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on four of seven since the 7 September release. Down on bounty offered.Dashed is Iowa Stormboar's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered15 Bounty collected26 Opponent network28 LAN wins18 Activity46 Win rate45 Head to head88
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Iowa Stormboar are 31st, 22 places outside the 9, 510 points behind Imperial
Chance of the Major · Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
31st
  1. 29ALKA
  2. 30ex-ODDIK
  3. 31Iowa Stormboar
  4. 32Isurus
  5. 33Low Cortisol BR
22 places outside the Major
VRS points
787
World #170 · 510 behind Imperial
// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. Iowa Stormboar are 31st, 22 places outside.

<1% Iowa Stormboar are 31st, 22 places outside the 9, 510 points behind Imperial Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
CutTeamTodayMajor
1FURIA1 · 1–22, 1 place up at the cut>99
2Legacy2 · 1–21, 1 place down at the cut>99
Stage 3 line
39z3 · 3–64, 1 place up at the cut>99
Stage 2 line
4MIBR4 · 3–53, 1 place down at the cut>99
5Liquid5 · 3–65>99
6M806 · 4–66>99
7Imperial8 · 7–109, 2 places up at the cut82
8NRG8 · 7–10880
9DENDELE8 · 7–107, 2 places down at the cut80
The cut · top 9 go
10Fluxo10 · 8–1211, 1 place up at the cut41
11paiN12 · 10–1410, 1 place down at the cut7
12Voca12 · 10–1515, 3 places up at the cut5
13Wildcard13 · 10–1612, 1 place down at the cut4
14BESTIA14 · 11–16142
15SportsBetExpert14 · 12–1613, 2 places down at the cut<1
16Iowa Stormboar38 · 29–4431, 15 places up at the cut<1

In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.

TodayValve's Regional Standings, 5 Oct
1Legacy1,931
2FURIA1,829
3MIBR1,585
49z1,544
5Liquid1,527
6M801,491
7DENDELE1,368
8NRG1,322
9Imperial1,297
10paiN1,287
11Fluxo1,277
12Wildcard1,239
14BESTIA1,189
15Voca1,182
31Iowa Stormboar787
At the cutOurs · ordered by chance of the Major · median place and range
2Legacy2 · 1–2>99%
1FURIA1 · 1–2>99%
4MIBR4 · 3–5>99%
39z3 · 3–6>99%
5Liquid5 · 3–6>99%
6M806 · 4–6>99%
9DENDELE8 · 7–1080%
8NRG8 · 7–1080%
7Imperial8 · 7–1082%
11paiN12 · 10–147%
10Fluxo10 · 8–1241%
13Wildcard13 · 10–164%
15SportsBetExpert14 · 12–16<1%
14BESTIA14 · 11–162%
12Voca12 · 10–155%
16Iowa Stormboar38 · 29–44<1%
Iowa StormboarComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 3Oct 8 – Oct 15 · Tier B · Online 0impact
// Act two

How they got here

34 matches in Valve's six-month window, 19 won, across 9 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

22 Sep – 25 Sep
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 2
The event's page →
Record2–2
Head to head-9.54
Still counts100%
4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L FarmVilleSep 25A loss -19.17
W Club 333Sep 24Bounty collected #2Opponent network #5LAN wins #2 +9.99
L MarsborneSep 23A loss -9.02
W Wanted GoonsSep 22Bounty collectedOpponent network #7LAN wins #3 +8.66
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

3 Sep – 12 Sep
NSTLGA League Season 2
The event's page →
Record5–3
Head to head+63.33
Still counts100%
8 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L LAGSep 12A loss -6.39
W MarsborneSep 12Bounty collected #1Opponent network #1LAN wins #4 +22.62
L SportsBetExpertSep 11A loss -2.62
W Overtake SectorSep 9Bounty collected #3Opponent network #2LAN wins #5 +15.83
W Beyond LimitsSep 6Bounty collectedOpponent network #10LAN wins #6 +8.16
L SportsBetExpertSep 5A loss -2.42
W Wanted GoonsSep 4Bounty collectedOpponent network #8LAN wins #7 +11.82
W Overtake SectorSep 3Bounty collected #4Opponent network #3LAN wins #8 +16.33
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network5 / 10 LAN wins5 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 13 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Aug – 28 Aug
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 1
The event's page →
Record2–2
Head to head+1.51
Still counts95%
4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L EMPIREAug 28A loss -17.77
W VillainousAug 27Bounty collected #6Opponent network #4LAN wins #9 +15.09
L MarsborneAug 26A loss -7.47
W ShimmerAug 25Bounty collected #5Opponent networkLAN wins #10 +11.66
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Jun – 14 Jun
NSTLGA League Season 1
Record4–2
Head to head+14.14
Still counts45%

These results are down to 45% of their original weight.

6 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L MarsborneJun 14A loss -3.72
W Festina LenteJun 14A win outside the ten best +4.99
W DETONATEJun 13Bounty collected #9Opponent network #9LAN wins +7.29
W Overtake SectorJun 13Bounty collected #7Opponent network #6LAN wins +7.10
W Club 333Jun 12Bounty collected #10Opponent networkLAN wins +4.77
L DETONATEJun 11A loss -6.29
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

27 Apr – 2 May
Thunderpick World Championship 2026: North American Series
Record2–1
Head to head-1.26
Still counts16%

These results are down to 16% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L ZomblersMay 2A loss -3.06
W IncognitoApr 28A win outside the ten best +0.96
W girl kissersApr 27A win outside the ten best +0.84
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.26.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Apr
FRAG 20
Record1–2
Head to head+0.96
Still counts12%

These results are down to 12% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Chicken CoopApr 25A loss -1.32
L M80Apr 25A loss -0.04
W Chicken CoopApr 25Bounty collected #8Opponent networkLAN wins #1 +2.32
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

8 Apr – 11 Apr
Dust2.us Eagle Masters Series 7
Record1–2
Head to head-0.39
Still counts2%

These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L ZomblersApr 11A loss -0.42
W 900FPSvsECOApr 10A win outside the ten best +0.07
L ChicaneryApr 8A loss -0.04
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.39.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–1
Head to head-0.01
Still counts1%

These results are down to 1% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W NuToriousApr 9A win outside the ten best +0.17
L Club 333Apr 9A loss -0.18
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.01.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

8 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America - Cup 3
Record1–0
Head to head+0.06
Still counts0%

These results are down to 0% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W regainApr 8A win outside the ten best +0.06
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.06.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Iowa Stormboar that is 717.7 plus 68.8.

The two parts

Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value717.7
+
Head to head+68.8
=
Points787

The head-to-head correction is 8.7% of the total.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.273median 0.517
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.280median 0.486
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.071median 0.204
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.011median 0.674
Iowa StormboarMedian of the 16 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.273 + 0.280 + 0.071 + 0.011
Their average÷ 4 = 0.159
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.159 ÷ 0.800 × 1,600 = 717.5
  • 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 717.7; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

Iowa Stormboar: Below the median of the 16 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,426
Rank by our Elo177 of 550
Valve's world standing170

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W L W L L W W L L W W W W L W L W L W W L W W L W L W L W L
Every match by opponent strength

1 of the 34 matches was against a side in the world's top 30, and the largest change in it was 0.0 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.