Every day before the cut we published each team's chance of the Major. Here they are against what Valve decided on the cut day, scored against Valve's own standings on the same days: the forecast you get by assuming nothing changes.
Over all 36 forecasts, our chances of reaching the Major were closer to what happened than Valve's standings. The score is Brier, lower is closer. The interval resamples whole teams, since a team's days are not independent.
Every team and every day, grouped by the chance we gave it of the Major. If our figures are honest, the teams we gave about 80% made it about 80% of the time.
"More" or "fewer" than we said only where a 95% interval that resamples whole teams lies wholly on one side: a team sits in one band for weeks, so its days are not separate chances.
| We said | The Major | evaluation | Stage 2+ | evaluation | Stage 3+ | evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2% of 2,631 | 3% of 255 | 1% of 3,362 | 2% of 337 | 0% of 3,798 | 0% of 394 |
| 10–20% | 25% of 158 | 19% of 26 | 17% of 93 | 10% of 20 | 23% of 22 | 44% of 9 |
| 20–30% | 21% of 113 | 35% of 17 | 54% of 78 | 33% of 15 | 36% of 14 | 13% of 8 |
| 30–40% | 10% of 68 | 30% of 10 | 33% of 30 | 18% of 11 | 40% of 25 | 57% of 7 |
| 40–50% | 40% of 47 | 50% of 16 | 31% of 49 | 50% of 6 | 22% of 23 | 100% of 1 |
| 50–60% | 59% of 54 | 30% of 10 | 62% of 45 | 50% of 6 | 47% of 15 | 33% of 6 |
| 60–70% | 54% of 72 | 69% of 16 | 53% of 34 | 38% of 8 | 50% of 6 | — |
| 70–80% | 71% of 112 | 56% of 16 | 30% of 37 | 88% of 8 | 80% of 5 | 50% of 4 |
| 80–90% | 85% of 130 | 89% of 9 | 52% of 21 | 67% of 9 | 67% of 18 | 100% of 4 |
| 90–100% | 97% of 773 | 94% of 72 | 97% of 409 | 100% of 27 | 100% of 232 | 100% of 14 |
How many made it, of how many team-days. The evaluation is the one published before the cut: Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026, worked out afterwards.
Our last forecast before the cut, of 1 November: every team we put over 90% for a stage that missed it, or under 10% that made it.
Our chance of the Major on four days before the cut, against what Valve decided. In Valve's order on the cut day; the line is the last seat.
| Team | 5 Oct | 19 Oct | 26 Oct | 1 Nov | Valve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1MOUZ | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 3 |
| 2Vitality | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 3 |
| 3Aurora | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 3 |
| 4Spirit | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 3 |
| 5BetBoom | 97 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 3 |
| 6Falcons | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 3 |
| 7FUT | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 2 |
| 8Nemiga | 89 | 83 | >99 | >99 | Stage 2 |
| 9G2 | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 2 |
| 101WIN | 55 | 99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 2 |
| 11Natus Vincere | 95 | 76 | >99 | >99 | Stage 2 |
| 12Astralis | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 2 |
| 13Ninjas in Pyjamas | 71 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 14PARIVISION | 81 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 15HEROIC | 89 | >99 | 98 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 16FaZe | 45 | 80 | 90 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 17Eternal Fire | 17 | 6 | 17 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 18100 Thieves | 27 | 64 | 45 | 66 | Stage 1 |
| 19HOTU | 14 | 2 | <1 | 2 | Out |
| 20fnatic | 8 | 24 | 8 | 33 | Out |
| 21B8 | 76 | 51 | 67 | <1 | Out |
| 22Inner Circle | 44 | 18 | 19 | <1 | Out |
| 23Virtus.pro | 3 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 24BIG | 23 | 20 | 24 | <1 | Out |
| 25SINNERS | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 26K27 | 2 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 27JiJieHao | 18 | 12 | 2 | <1 | Out |
| 28GamerLegion | 6 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 29Nemesis | 14 | 6 | 6 | <1 | Out |
| 30Luminosity | 38 | 31 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 31magic | 34 | 21 | 26 | <1 | Out |
| 32BBL | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 34Sangal | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 36Betclic | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 37FOKUS | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 38Alliance | 27 | 8 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 41Nuclear TigeRES | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 43SAW | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 44EYEBALLERS | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| —3DMAX | 25 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| Team | 5 Oct | 19 Oct | 26 Oct | 1 Nov | Valve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FURIA | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 3 |
| 2Legacy | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 3 |
| 3MIBR | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 2 |
| 4Liquid | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 59z | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 6M80 | >99 | >99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 7DENDELE | 80 | 95 | 91 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 8Imperial | 82 | 40 | 81 | 94 | Stage 1 |
| 9Wildcard | 4 | 82 | 80 | 82 | Stage 1 |
| 10NRG | 80 | 70 | 29 | 9 | Out |
| 11BESTIA | 2 | <1 | 1 | <1 | Out |
| 12paiN | 7 | <1 | 14 | 14 | Out |
| 13Fluxo | 41 | 11 | 4 | <1 | Out |
| 14SportsBetExpert | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 16Voca | 5 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 17ShindeN | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 18Galorys | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 19Without a Roof | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 20Bounty Hunters | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 21LAG | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 22Turma do Pagode | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 23Marsborne | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 24Procyon | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 26Low Cortisol BR | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 28Overtake Sector | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 29Yawara | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 30Isurus | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 31regain | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 32Desi Boyz | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 34Chicken Coop | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 35Iowa Stormboar | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 36DETONATE | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 38ALKA | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 41MIBR fe | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 43UNO MILLE | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 46QUINTESSÊNCIA | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 48FarmVille | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| —LP | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| —ex-Keyd Stars | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| —ex-ODDIK | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| Team | 5 Oct | 19 Oct | 26 Oct | 1 Nov | Valve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1The MongolZ | 98 | 85 | >99 | >99 | Stage 2 |
| 2BC.Game | >99 | 99 | >99 | >99 | Stage 1 |
| 3FlyQuest | 82 | 82 | 57 | 82 | Stage 1 |
| 4Chinggis Warriors | 10 | 70 | 83 | 83 | Stage 1 |
| 5Lynn Vision | 18 | 23 | 79 | 50 | Stage 1 |
| 6TYLOO | >99 | 78 | 43 | 82 | Out |
| 75star | 63 | 46 | 36 | <1 | Out |
| 8NEXVOID | 19 | 16 | 2 | 3 | Out |
| 9Alter Ego | 6 | 1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 10The Huns | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 12DEPO | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 13Rare Atom | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 14Abyssal | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 16Ground Zero | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 17Rooster | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 18Kaleido | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 19THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 20Just Swing | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 21Vitalem Aerem | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 23Mindfreak | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 25THE UNIT | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 26Nas | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 27Revenge | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 285dads | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 29MARKandLARRY | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 30Legion | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 31XDM | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 32The KnockoutX | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 33LFO 8 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 34ex-Arcade | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 35Haunted House | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 36LFO 9 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 39madlikewizards | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| 42SemperFi | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | Out |
| —BORING PLAYERS | <1 | <1 | <1 | — | Out |
| —Ding Cuts | <1 | <1 | <1 | — | Out |
Our Pick'em sets for Singapore are scored here once a stage is played. Pick'em
Brier per stage, ours against Valve's standings on the same days; lower is closer. The evaluation was worked out afterwards, on the data each forecast date had, and is never pooled with forecasts published on the day.
| Major | How | Team-days | The Major | Stage 2+ | Stage 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cologne 2026 | Worked out afterwards | 225 | 0.093 / 0.124 | 0.044 / 0.071 | 0.016 / 0.018 |
| Budapest 2025 | Worked out afterwards | 222 | 0.066 / 0.108 | 0.052 / 0.054 | 0.025 / 0.018 |