ex-Arcade
Asia-Pacific #35at the Major
- 33LFO 9
- 34MARKandLARRY
- 35ex-Arcade
- 36
Legion - 37madlikewizards
The verdict
Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. ex-Arcade are 35th, 30 places outside.
Who they are racing
In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.
FlyQuest comes up into the 5, Lynn Vision falls out.
FlyQuest comes up into the 5, Lynn Vision falls out.
How these numbers are made
- Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
How they got here
20 matches in Valve's six-month window, 8 won, across 11 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 6 of the 24 slots that count, level with 1 other event.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -17.54.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the 24 slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -12.77.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 6 of the 24 slots that count, level with 1 other event.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 81% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -17.03.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 80% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the 24 slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 67% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -6.28.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 67% of their original weight.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the 24 slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
It holds 3 of the 24 slots that count.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.17.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 24 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
- Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For ex-Arcade that is 546.8 plus 18.1.
The two parts
The head-to-head correction is 3.2% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
- 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
- Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
- Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
- Valve's file prints 546.8; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
ex-Arcade: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.
How good are they
We have no Elo for ex-Arcade: it ranks clubs with a match in the last 90 days.
None of the 20 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
- Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
- In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.