← Race to the Major

Turma do Pagode

Americas #20
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
ksloks · matios · naitte · Tuurtle · WOOD7
Outside the profile on four of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected and LAN wins, above it on head to head.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on five of seven since the 7 September release. Dashed is Turma do Pagode's own profile on 7 Sep · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered50 Bounty collected47 Opponent network53 LAN wins37 Activity67 Win rate67 Head to head95
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Turma do Pagode are 20th, 11 places outside the 9, 246 points behind Imperial
Chance of the Major · Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
20th
  1. 18LP
  2. 19Bounty Hunters
  3. 20Turma do Pagode
  4. 21Without a Roof
  5. 22LAG
11 places outside the Major
VRS points
1,051
World #98 · 246 behind Imperial
Next match
vs BORRACHEIROS
2days away
Oct 7 · BO3 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 3
// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. Turma do Pagode are 20th, 11 places outside.

<1% Turma do Pagode are 20th, 11 places outside the 9, 246 points behind Imperial Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
CutTeamTodayMajor
1FURIA1 · 1–22, 1 place up at the cut>99
2Legacy2 · 1–21, 1 place down at the cut>99
Stage 3 line
39z3 · 3–64, 1 place up at the cut>99
Stage 2 line
4MIBR4 · 3–53, 1 place down at the cut>99
5Liquid5 · 3–65>99
6M806 · 4–66>99
7Imperial8 · 7–109, 2 places up at the cut82
8NRG8 · 7–10880
9DENDELE8 · 7–107, 2 places down at the cut80
The cut · top 9 go
10Fluxo10 · 8–1211, 1 place up at the cut41
11paiN12 · 10–1410, 1 place down at the cut7
12Voca12 · 10–1515, 3 places up at the cut5
13Wildcard13 · 10–1612, 1 place down at the cut4
14BESTIA14 · 11–16142
15SportsBetExpert14 · 12–1613, 2 places down at the cut<1
16Turma do Pagode17 · 14–1920, 4 places up at the cut<1

In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.

TodayValve's Regional Standings, 5 Oct
1Legacy1,931
2FURIA1,829
3MIBR1,585
49z1,544
5Liquid1,527
6M801,491
7DENDELE1,368
8NRG1,322
9Imperial1,297
10paiN1,287
11Fluxo1,277
12Wildcard1,239
14BESTIA1,189
15Voca1,182
20Turma do Pagode1,051
At the cutOurs · ordered by chance of the Major · median place and range
2Legacy2 · 1–2>99%
1FURIA1 · 1–2>99%
4MIBR4 · 3–5>99%
39z3 · 3–6>99%
5Liquid5 · 3–6>99%
6M806 · 4–6>99%
9DENDELE8 · 7–1080%
8NRG8 · 7–1080%
7Imperial8 · 7–1082%
11paiN12 · 10–147%
10Fluxo10 · 8–1241%
13Wildcard13 · 10–164%
15SportsBetExpert14 · 12–16<1%
14BESTIA14 · 11–162%
12Voca12 · 10–155%
16Turma do Pagode17 · 14–19<1%
Turma do PagodeComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play
ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3Oct 7 – Oct 15 · Tier B · Online 0impact
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 3Oct 8 – Oct 15 · Tier B · Online 0impact
// Act two

How they got here

40 matches in Valve's six-month window, 25 won, across 13 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

1 Oct – 4 Oct
CCT South America 2026 Series 6
Record4–0
Head to head+51.01
Still counts100%
4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W GalorysOct 4Bounty collected #1Opponent network #2LAN wins #3 +18.66
W Bounty HuntersOct 4Bounty collected #2Opponent network #5LAN wins #4 +17.49
W YawaraOct 3Bounty collected #7Opponent networkLAN wins #5 +9.13
W MIBR feOct 1Bounty collected #8Opponent networkLAN wins #6 +5.73
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected4 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

It holds 10 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

22 Sep – 29 Sep
ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
The event's page →
Record6–1
Head to head+54.94
Still counts100%
7 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W ProcyonSep 29Bounty collected #9Opponent network #3LAN wins #7 +8.62
W GalorysSep 28Bounty collected #3Opponent network #1LAN wins #8 +21.53
W YawaraSep 27Bounty collected #6Opponent network #7LAN wins #9 +10.89
W ALKASep 26Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #10 +10.61
L ProcyonSep 25A loss -22.37
W Bounty HuntersSep 23Bounty collected #4Opponent network #4LAN wins +21.76
W MEIA NOITESep 22Bounty collectedOpponent network #6LAN wins +3.90
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected4 / 10 Opponent network5 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 13 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

23 Sep – 24 Sep
FERJEE In House Season 2
The event's page →
Record0–2
Head to head-25.13
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L ex-Keyd StarsSep 24A loss -20.44
L paiNSep 23A loss -4.69
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -25.13.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

16 Sep – 18 Sep
Circuit X Curitiba 3
The event's page →
Record2–2
Head to head+5.22
Still counts100%
4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L ShindeNSep 18A loss -8.89
W ALKASep 16Bounty collectedOpponent network #9LAN wins #2 +9.01
L paiNSep 16A loss -4.43
W ALKASep 16Bounty collectedOpponent network #8LAN wins #1 +9.53
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Sep – 10 Sep
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: South American Qualifier
The event's page →
Record0–2
Head to head-14.34
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L ShindeNSep 10A loss -10.55
L DENDELESep 9A loss -3.79
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -14.34.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

6 Sep
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: South American Open Qualifier 2
The event's page →
Record2–0
Head to head+21.15
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W IsurusSep 6A win outside the ten best +10.54
W YawaraSep 6A win outside the ten best +10.61
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +21.15.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

4 Sep
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: South American Open Qualifier 1
The event's page →
Record1–1
Head to head-0.76
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L FluxoSep 4A loss -4.93
W your endSep 4A win outside the ten best +4.17
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.76.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Aug – 28 Aug
ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 1
The event's page →
Record2–2
Head to head-10.51
Still counts95%
4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L IsurusAug 28A loss -18.89
W Bounty HuntersAug 27Bounty collected #5Opponent network #10LAN wins +21.10
W ALKAAug 26A win outside the ten best +8.94
L Low Cortisol BRAug 25A loss -21.66
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

24 Apr – 10 May
Odyssey Cup Brazil 2026
Record5–2
Head to head+8.94
Still counts22%

These results are down to 22% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

7 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W GalorysMay 10Bounty collected #10Opponent networkLAN wins +5.16
L YawaraMay 10A loss -4.22
W LPMay 8A win outside the ten best +4.55
W Bounty HuntersMay 2A win outside the ten best +4.26
W ex-Keyd StarsApr 25A win outside the ten best +1.24
W QUINTESSÊNCIAApr 24A win outside the ten best +0.63
L METANOIA WolvesApr 24A loss -2.68
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

7 May – 10 May
CCT South America 2026 Series 1
Record2–1
Head to head+1.13
Still counts21%

These results are down to 21% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L IsurusMay 10A loss -4.93
W Bounty HuntersMay 9A win outside the ten best +5.40
W BESTIA AcademyMay 7A win outside the ten best +0.66
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +1.13.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

28 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-2.78
Still counts14%

These results are down to 14% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L ex-Keyd StarsApr 28A loss -2.78
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.78.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

27 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: South America - Cup 4
Record0–1
Head to head-3.35
Still counts13%

These results are down to 13% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Fake do BiruApr 27A loss -3.35
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -3.35.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

26 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.16
Still counts12%

These results are down to 12% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W RTT100Apr 26A win outside the ten best +0.16
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.16.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Turma do Pagode that is 964.9 plus 85.7.

The two parts

Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value964.9
+
Head to head+85.7
=
Points1,051

The head-to-head correction is 8.2% of the total.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.413median 0.517
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.341median 0.486
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.176median 0.204
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.200median 0.674
Turma do PagodeMedian of the 16 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.413 + 0.341 + 0.176 + 0.200
Their average÷ 4 = 0.283
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.283 ÷ 0.800 × 1,600 = 965.0
  • 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 964.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

Turma do Pagode: Below the median of the 16 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,568
Rank by our Elo64 of 550
Valve's world standing98

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
L L W L W W L W L W W L L W L W L W L W L L W W W W W W W W
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 40 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.