← Race to the Major

Liquid

Americas
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
EliGE · Jorko · JT · malbsMd · NAF
Inside the profile on all seven. Band is the other 8 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on four of seven since the 3 August release. Down on head to head.Dashed is Liquid's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered80 Bounty collected80 Opponent network78 LAN wins86 Activity32 Win rate27 Head to head34
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
>99%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
4th
  1. 2FURIA
  2. 39z
  3. 4Liquid
  4. 5MIBR
  5. 6DENDELE
In the Major, at Stage 1
VRS points
1,465
World #17 · 330 clear of Wildcard
Since April
10th to 4th
Valve's standings
// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. Liquid hold the 4th.

>99% Liquid hold a Stage 1 slot, 330 points clear of Wildcard Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1Legacy1,783
2FURIA1,754
39z1,606
4Liquid1,465
5MIBR1,408
6DENDELE1,301
7M801,270
8paiN1,268
9NRG1,167
10Wildcard1,135
11Imperial1,085
12SportsBetExpert1,075
13Fluxo1,065
14Galorys1,006
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
1Legacy1–2>99%
2FURIA1–2>99%
39z3–5>99%
5Liquid3–6>99%
4MIBR4–5>99%
9DENDELE7–1254%
6M804–6>99%
11paiN8–1420%
7NRG7–1271%
12Wildcard8–1620%
8Imperial7–1261%
13SportsBetExpert8–1719%
10Fluxo9–1518%
14Galorys13–18<1%
LiquidComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

Imperial comes up into the 9, paiN falls out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026Oct 24 – Oct 31 · Tier S · LAN 30impact

Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.

// Act two

How they got here

30 matches in Valve's six-month window, 15 won, across 10 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

7 Aug – 9 Aug
Esports World Cup 2026: Open Qualifier
The event's page →
Record2–1
Head to head-20.89
Still counts100%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 1winAug 9A loss -23.52
W MetizportAug 8Bounty collected #9Opponent network #1LAN wins #1 +2.57
W DhalaAug 7Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #2 +0.06
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

1 Aug – 5 Aug
Stake Pulse Beat I
The event's page →
Record4–1
Head to head-1.73
Still counts98%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L BetclicAug 5A loss -21.20
W fnaticAug 5Bounty collected #8Opponent network #2LAN wins #3 +8.25
W 9INEAug 4Bounty collectedOpponent network #10LAN wins #4 +2.36
W BetclicAug 1Bounty collected #7Opponent network #8LAN wins #5 +8.69
W atputiesAug 1Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #6 +0.17
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026
The event's page →
Record0–1
Head to head-1.50
Still counts94%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SpiritJul 30A loss -1.50
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.50.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

24 Jul – 25 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record2–0
Head to head+48.49
Still counts90%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W G2Jul 25Bounty collected #2Opponent network #4LAN wins +22.64
W VitalityJul 24Bounty collected #1Opponent network #3LAN wins +25.85
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

2 Jun – 5 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1
Record2–3
Head to head-16.68
Still counts57%

These results are down to 57% of their original weight.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L FlyQuestJun 5A loss -15.47
W HEROICJun 4Bounty collected #6Opponent network #5LAN wins #7 +6.06
L MIBRJun 3A loss -9.68
L BETBOOMJun 2A loss -8.46
W BIGJun 2Bounty collected #5Opponent network #6LAN wins #8 +10.87
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

20 May – 21 May
CS Asia Championships 2026
Record1–1
Head to head-3.81
Still counts47%

These results are down to 47% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L The MongolZMay 21A loss -8.00
W 3DMAXMay 20Bounty collected #3Opponent network #7LAN wins #9 +4.19
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 May – 13 May
Intel Extreme Masters Atlanta 2026
Record1–2
Head to head-12.27
Still counts42%

These results are down to 42% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L GamerLegionMay 13A loss -7.94
W M80May 12Bounty collected #4Opponent network #9LAN wins #10 +2.61
L AstralisMay 11A loss -6.94
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

13 Apr – 14 Apr
Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2026
Record0–2
Head to head-5.54
Still counts23%

These results are down to 23% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 3DMAXApr 14A loss -5.18
L SpiritApr 13A loss -0.36
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -5.54.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 Mar – 31 Mar
DraculaN Season 6
Record2–2
Head to head-4.34
Still counts13%

These results are down to 13% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SashiMar 31A loss -3.31
W HAVUMar 31A win outside the ten best +0.13
L M80Mar 31A loss -3.37
W Inner CircleMar 30Bounty collected #10Opponent networkLAN wins +2.21
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

19 Mar – 22 Mar
BLAST Open Spring 2026
Record1–2
Head to head-1.42
Still counts7%

These results are down to 7% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L The MongolZMar 22A loss -1.35
W Ninjas in PyjamasMar 21A win outside the ten best +0.02
L SpiritMar 19A loss -0.09
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.42.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Liquid that is 1,484.9 minus 19.7.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,484.9
+
Head to head−19.7
=
Points1,465

The head-to-head correction is 1.3% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.593median 0.535
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.548median 0.517
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.260median 0.204
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.880median 0.715
LiquidMedian of the 14 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.593 + 0.548 + 0.260 + 0.880
Their average÷ 4 = 0.570
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.570 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 1,484.9
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.

Liquid: At or above the median of the 14 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,653
Rank by our Elo23 of 538
Valve's world standing17

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
L W L W L W L L L L W L W L W L L W L W W L W W W W L W W L
Every match by opponent strength

17 of the 30 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 25.9 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.