Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Aurora hold the 9th.
>99%Aurora hold a Stage 2 slot, 182 points clear of HOTUChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
22 Jul – 26 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: European Qualifier
Record4–0
Head to head+22.31
Still counts91%
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +22.31.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
23 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-25.20
Still counts89%
These results are down to 89% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -25.20.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
11 Jun – 20 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Record4–2
Head to head+34.25
Still counts67%
These results are down to 67% of their original weight.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 11 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
8 May – 15 May
PGL Astana 2026
Record3–3
Head to head-1.08
Still counts43%
These results are down to 43% of their original weight.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
13 Apr – 15 Apr
Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2026
Record2–2
Head to head+1.52
Still counts23%
These results are down to 23% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 Mar – 1 Apr
DraculaN Season 6
Record2–2
Head to head-5.33
Still counts14%
These results are down to 14% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -5.33.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
18 Mar – 28 Mar
BLAST Open Spring 2026
Record3–2
Head to head+1.88
Still counts11%
These results are down to 11% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +1.88.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
13 Mar – 15 Mar
ESL Pro League Season 23
Record2–1
Head to head+0.11
Still counts3%
These results are down to 3% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.11.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Aurora that is 1,540.4 plus 12.1.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,540.4
+
Head to head+12.1
=
Points1,553
The head-to-head correction is 0.8% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.724median 0.682
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.571median 0.559
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.278median 0.295
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.825median 0.851
AuroraMedian of the 23 chasing the slots in Europe
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,540.4; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Aurora: Above the median of the 23 chasing the slots on bounty offered and bounty collected, below on opponent network and LAN wins.
28 of the 41 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 17.4 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
FaZe
Natus Vincere
Aurora
B8
Inner Circle
9z
