Outside the profile on three of seven. They match it on opponent network, activity, win rate and head to head.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on six of seven since the 3 August release.Dashed is ALKA's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered27Bounty collected24Opponent network50LAN wins7Activity65Win rate31Head to head88
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. ALKA are 29th, 20 places outside.
<1%ALKA are 29th, 20 places outside the 9, 381 points behind NRGChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their most valuable event. It holds 11 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
4 Sep
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: South American Open Qualifier 1
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -4.72.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Aug – 26 Aug
ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 1
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -33.90.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
15 Jul – 24 Jul
CCT South America 2026 Series 4
Record3–2
Head to head+5.19
Still counts90%
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
27 Jun – 6 Jul
CCT South America 2026 Series 3
Record3–3
Head to head-12.70
Still counts78%
These results are down to 78% of their original weight.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
12 May – 22 May
CCT South America 2026 Series 2
Record3–1
Head to head+11.08
Still counts48%
These results are down to 48% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
22 Apr – 23 Apr
BetBoom RUSH B! Summit 2026: Part Three
Record0–2
Head to head-4.99
Still counts28%
These results are down to 28% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -4.99.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
17 Apr
CCT South America 2026 Challengers 1
Record0–1
Head to head-4.51
Still counts25%
These results are down to 25% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -4.51.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
26 Mar – 6 Apr
BetBoom Storm 2
Record3–3
Head to head-3.39
Still counts17%
These results are down to 17% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LUNO MILLEApr 6A loss-3.13
WBESTIA AcademyApr 2A win outside the ten best+2.01
WCharradosApr 1A win outside the ten best+0.83
WHereWeGoAgainMar 29A win outside the ten best+0.51
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -3.39.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
1 Apr
Circuit X Mayhem São Paulo
Record0–2
Head to head-2.82
Still counts14%
These results are down to 14% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.82.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For ALKA that is 734.7 plus 51.0.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value734.7
+
Head to head+51.0
=
Points786
The head-to-head correction is 6.5% of the total.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.316median 0.531
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.255median 0.510
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.133median 0.182
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.000median 0.708
ALKAMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 734.7; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
ALKA: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
LWLLWWLWLWWLWLWWWLWWLWLLWWWLWL
Every match by opponent strength
Turma do Pagode #158 −24.2UNO MILLE #174 +18.1+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200ALKA #153Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
1 of the 44 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 0.0 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Passion UA
Without a Roof
ALKA
Yawara
