← Race to the Major

5dads

Asia-Pacific #25
0 stage 31 stage 24 stage 1
nope · Oath · SWANKY · tajne
Outside the profile on five of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected, opponent network, LAN wins and activity.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered10 Bounty collected6 Opponent network9 LAN wins9 Activity3 Win rate83 Head to head65
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
5dads are 25th, 20 places outside the 5, 462 points behind 5star
Chance of the Major · Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Asia-Pacific standing
25th
  1. 23THE UNIT
  2. 24Revenge
  3. 255dads
  4. 27Haunted House
20 places outside the Major
VRS points
649
World #247 · 462 behind 5star
// Act one

The verdict

Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. 5dads are 25th, 20 places outside.

<1% 5dads are 25th, 20 places outside the 5, 462 points behind 5star Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 5 Oct 2026

Who they are racing

Asia-Pacific · 5 slots
CutTeamTodayMajor
1BC.Game2 · 1–33, 2 places up at the cut>99
Stage 2 line
2TYLOO3 · 1–41, 1 place down at the cut>99
3The MongolZ1 · 1–32, 1 place down at the cut98
4FlyQuest4 · 3–66, 2 places up at the cut82
55star5 · 4–7563
The cut · top 5 go
6NEXVOID8 · 5–119, 3 places up at the cut19
7Lynn Vision7 · 5–94, 3 places down at the cut18
8Chinggis Warriors7 · 5–107, 1 place down at the cut10
9THUNDER dOWNUNDER11 · 9–1410, 1 place up at the cut1
10DEPO9 · 7–128, 2 places down at the cut1
115dads25 · 19–2825, 14 places up at the cut<1

In the order of their chance of the Major, our simulation's, as Race to the Major orders them; beside each, its median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs put it in. Today is Valve's standing, and the arrow how far the order by chance moves them.

FlyQuest comes up into the 5, Lynn Vision falls out.

TodayValve's Regional Standings, 5 Oct
1TYLOO1,340
2The MongolZ1,318
3BC.Game1,318
4Lynn Vision1,190
55star1,111
6FlyQuest1,093
7Chinggis Warriors1,084
8DEPO1,041
9NEXVOID995
10THUNDER dOWNUNDER971
255dads649
At the cutOurs · ordered by chance of the Major · median place and range
2TYLOO3 · 1–4>99%
3The MongolZ1 · 1–398%
1BC.Game2 · 1–3>99%
7Lynn Vision7 · 5–918%
55star5 · 4–763%
4FlyQuest4 · 3–682%
8Chinggis Warriors7 · 5–1010%
10DEPO9 · 7–121%
6NEXVOID8 · 5–1119%
9THUNDER dOWNUNDER11 · 9–141%
115dads25 · 19–28<1%
5dadsComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

FlyQuest comes up into the 5, Lynn Vision falls out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their chance of the Major, as Race to the Major orders them, with each one's median place at the cut and the range the middle 80% of runs fall in. A club further down Valve's standings is listed when its median place reaches the figure.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

// Act two

How they got here

6 matches in Valve's six-month window, 4 won, across 5 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

26 Sep – 27 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–1
Head to head-6.64
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AbyssalSep 27A loss -12.56
W Mikey McSnugglesSep 26Bounty collected #2Opponent network #4LAN wins #1 +5.92
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

Among their most valuable. It holds 3 of the 12 slots that count, level with 3 other events.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 12 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

17 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+11.08
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W madlikewizardsSep 17Bounty collected #3Opponent network #3LAN wins #2 +11.08
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

Among their most valuable. It holds 3 of the 12 slots that count, level with 3 other events.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 12 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

10 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-12.70
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AbyssalSep 10A loss -12.70
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -12.70.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 12 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

6 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+17.65
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W MindfreakSep 6Bounty collected #1Opponent network #2LAN wins #3 +17.65
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

Among their most valuable. It holds 3 of the 12 slots that count, level with 3 other events.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 12 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

4 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+12.77
Still counts99%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W ex-ArcadeSep 4Bounty collected #4Opponent network #1LAN wins #4 +12.77
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

Among their most valuable. It holds 3 of the 12 slots that count, level with 3 other events.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 12 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 5 October 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For 5dads that is 626.4 plus 22.2.

The two parts

Valve's · release 5 Oct 2026
Starting value626.4
+
Head to head+22.2
=
Points649

The head-to-head correction is 3.4% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.251median 0.386
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.190median 0.340
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.012median 0.157
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.000median 0.400
5dadsMedian of the 11 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
The four factors0.251 + 0.190 + 0.012 + 0.000
Their average÷ 4 = 0.113
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.113 ÷ 0.800 × 1,600 = 626.5
  • 0.800 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 380 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 626.4; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

5dads: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating

We have no Elo for 5dads: it ranks clubs with a match in the last 90 days.

The last 6 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W W L W W L
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 6 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.