← Race to the Major

Luminosity

Europe
6 stage 36 stage 26 stage 1
afro · AZUWU · Bymas · lux · Rainwaker
Outside the profile on two of seven. They match it on bounty offered, bounty collected, activity, win rate and head to head.Band is the other 18 Europe sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Down on six of seven since the 3 August release. Up on head to head.Dashed is Luminosity's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered73 Bounty collected74 Opponent network51 LAN wins54 Activity35 Win rate24 Head to head76
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
12%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Europe standing
33rd
  1. 31Virtus.pro
  2. 32Nuclear TigeRES
  3. 33Luminosity
  4. 34Nemesis
  5. 35Acend
15 places outside the Major
VRS points
1,229
World #44 · 150 behind HEROIC
Next match
vs B8
Today
Oct 1 · BO3 · Stake Ranked Episode 4
// Act one

The verdict

Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Luminosity are 33rd, 15 places outside.

12% Luminosity are 33rd, 15 places outside the 18, 150 points behind HEROIC Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Europe · 18 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1Spirit2,031
2MOUZ1,902
3Falcons1,881
4FUT1,846
5Vitality1,841
6G21,723
7FaZe1,599
8Natus Vincere1,579
9Aurora1,553
10B81,515
11Inner Circle1,502
12BETBOOM1,499
13BIG1,480
14PARIVISION1,461
15Astralis1,446
16Alliance1,402
17magic1,402
18HEROIC1,379
19HOTU1,371
20100 Thieves1,347
21GamerLegion1,345
22Ninjas in Pyjamas1,338
23Betclic1,331
33Luminosity1,229
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
1Spirit1–2>99%
4MOUZ2–7>99%
2Falcons2–6>99%
7FUT4–9>99%
3Vitality1–5>99%
5G23–7>99%
14FaZe10–2572%
9Natus Vincere6–2286%
6Aurora4–8>99%
10B89–1598%
15Inner Circle13–2358%
8BETBOOM5–10>99%
16BIG12–2754%
12PARIVISION9–3068%
11Astralis10–2088%
19Alliance14–3027%
21magic15–2822%
13HEROIC10–1892%
22HOTU16–3121%
18100 Thieves13–2843%
20GamerLegion15–2723%
17Ninjas in Pyjamas14–2743%
24Betclic31–45<1%
23Luminosity18–3312%
LuminosityComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

100 Thieves and Ninjas in Pyjamas come up into the 18, Alliance and magic fall out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play
Stake Ranked Episode 4Oct 1 – Oct 4 · Tier A · LAN 112impact
Luminosity#33 Europe 12%now 7%74%
// Act two

How they got here

31 matches in Valve's six-month window, 15 won, across 8 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

12 Aug – 13 Aug
Esports World Cup 2026
The event's page →
Record0–2
Head to head-10.64
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SpiritAug 13A loss -0.50
L GamerLegionAug 12A loss -10.14
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -10.64.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

1 Jul – 3 Jul
XSE Pro League 2026
Record0–3
Head to head-33.70
Still counts76%

These results are down to 76% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Ninjas in PyjamasJul 3A loss -9.12
L Lynn VisionJul 2A loss -10.31
L NemesisJul 1A loss -14.27
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -33.70.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Jun – 14 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Record1–3
Head to head+4.42
Still counts63%

These results are down to 63% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L The MongolZJun 14A loss -5.54
L FalconsJun 13A loss -0.61
W PARIVISIONJun 12Bounty collected #2Opponent network #4LAN wins #1 +14.03
L AuroraJun 11A loss -3.46
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

6 Jun – 9 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2
Record3–2
Head to head+39.06
Still counts60%

These results are down to 60% of their original weight.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W paiNJun 9Bounty collected #3Opponent network #5LAN wins #2 +11.18
L BETBOOMJun 8A loss -3.84
W LegacyJun 7Bounty collected #1Opponent network #2LAN wins #3 +17.62
L G2Jun 6A loss -1.20
W BIGJun 6Bounty collected #5Opponent network #1LAN wins #4 +15.30
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 May – 13 May
PGL Astana 2026
Record2–3
Head to head+8.23
Still counts42%

These results are down to 42% of their original weight.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L G2May 13A loss -0.80
W The HunsMay 12Bounty collected #9Opponent network #6LAN wins #5 +1.45
L FalconsMay 11A loss -0.29
W magicMay 10Bounty collected #4Opponent network #3LAN wins #6 +8.41
L FURIAMay 9A loss -0.54
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

23 Apr – 26 Apr
CCT Season 3 Global Finals
Record4–1
Head to head+17.70
Still counts31%

These results are down to 31% of their original weight.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W HEROICApr 26Bounty collected #8Opponent network #7LAN wins #7 +6.88
W Ninjas in PyjamasApr 26Bounty collected #6Opponent network #8LAN wins #8 +6.40
L HEROICApr 25A loss -2.64
W Ninjas in PyjamasApr 24Bounty collected #7Opponent network #9LAN wins #9 +6.11
W BetclicApr 23Bounty collectedOpponent network #10LAN wins #10 +0.95
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network4 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 11 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 Mar – 2 Apr
DraculaN Season 6
Record4–1
Head to head+4.17
Still counts15%

These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L M80Apr 2A loss -2.19
W M80Apr 1A win outside the ten best +2.28
W Passion UAMar 31A win outside the ten best +0.43
W AllianceMar 31Bounty collected #10Opponent networkLAN wins +3.14
W HAVUMar 30A win outside the ten best +0.51
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Mar
BC.Game Masters Championship
Record1–1
Head to head+0.37
Still counts9%

These results are down to 9% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L BETBOOMMar 25A loss -0.54
W 9INEMar 25A win outside the ten best +0.91
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.37.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Luminosity that is 1,198.9 plus 29.6.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,198.9
+
Head to head+29.6
=
Points1,229

The head-to-head correction is 2.4% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.544median 0.658
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.511median 0.558
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.134median 0.287
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.491median 0.838
LuminosityMedian of the 24 chasing the slots in Europe
The four factors0.544 + 0.511 + 0.134 + 0.491
Their average÷ 4 = 0.420
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.420 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 1,199.0
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 1,198.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

Luminosity: Below the median of the 24 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,470
Rank by our Elo115 of 538
Valve's world standing44

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
L W W W W L W W L W W L W L W L W L W L W L W L L L L L L L
Every match by opponent strength

22 of the 31 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 17.6 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.