// Event · Tier B

Tesla Cup 2026

27 Oct – 29 Oct 2026 LAN 16 teams $50,000 prize pool 4 days before the cut

Race impact ?

2nd largest of 7 before the cut

Why it matters

Facts beside our number

Valve's event weight

0.43

From its prize pool, $50,000, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.

Teams in the race known to attend

FaZe

Luminosity

Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures. Our model expects 2 more.

Timing

4 days before the cut

TodayCut · 2 Nov

Starts in 5 days. Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

3 teams in the race known to attend

Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.

TeamTodayWhen it pays off

In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 3%. From a quarter-final it pays: 87%, up to 98% with the title. 3% to 98% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

-66 points

Quarter-final

87%

+18 points

Semi-final

—

too few runs

Final

—

too few runs

Win it

98%

+29 points

In our runs B8 are above the 69% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 66 points below today's.

First match: vs K27, 27 OctIn our runs: win 84% · lose 38% B8's page →

In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 77%. From a quarter-final it pays: >99%. 77% to >99% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

77%

-15 points

Quarter-final

>99%

+8 points

Semi-final

—

too few runs

Final

>99%

+8 points

Win it

>99%

+8 points

In our runs FaZe are above the 92% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 15 points below today's.

First match: vs Alliance, 27 OctIn our runs: win 98% · lose 80% FaZe's page →

In our runs where they go out in the quarter-finals: <1%. From a final it pays: 6%, up to 14% with the title. Never past 50% here: 14% at best, with the title. <1% to 14% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

-1 point

Quarter-final

<1%

-1 point

Semi-final

—

too few runs

Final

+5 points

Win it

14%

+13 points

In our runs Luminosity are above the 1% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 1 point below today's.

First match: vs HOTU, 27 OctIn our runs: win 4% · lose <1% Luminosity's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

—

too few runs

First match: vs B8, 27 OctIn our runs: win <1% · lose <1% K27's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

—

too few runs

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

First match: vs FaZe, 27 OctIn our runs: win <1% · lose <1% Alliance's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

First match: vs Envy, 27 Oct GamerLegion's page →

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

—

too few runs

First match: vs Luminosity, 27 Oct HOTU's page →

Drawn matches

3 with a team in the race · bo3's draw

Each team in the race's chance of the Major today, and in our runs where it wins or loses its drawn match.

27 Oct · BO3

B8 win 68% of our runs

#10 Europe · 69% today

Win84%Lose38%

K27

#26 Europe · <1% today

Out of the race.

Also moves 100 Thieves: 52% where B8 win, 66% where K27 win; JiJieHao: 15% where B8 win, 21% where K27 win.

27 Oct · BO3

FaZe win 65% of our runs

Alliance

#18 Europe · <1% today

Out of the race.

FaZe

#20 Europe · 92% today

Win98%Lose80%

Also moves 100 Thieves: 61% where Alliance win, 54% where FaZe win.

27 Oct · BO3

HOTU win 67% of our runs

Luminosity

#13 Europe · 1% today

Win4%Lose<1%

HOTU

#25 Europe · <1% today

Out of the race.

The field

8 known · in the race · 8 by our model · strongest first, by our Elo

1 In the race, 69% for the Major: B8EU #10 · Elo 1,710 2 In the race, 92% for the Major: FaZeEU #20 · Elo 1,682 3 HOTUEU #25 · Elo 1,657 4 K27EU #26 · Elo 1,619 5 GamerLegionEU #21 · Elo 1,616 6 AllianceEU #18 · Elo 1,605 7 In the race, 1% for the Major: LuminosityEU #13 · Elo 1,575

8 EnvyOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,360

In the race · 69%

Europe #10

Elo 1,710 · 18th

In the race · 92%

FaZe

Europe #20

Elo 1,682 · 22nd

HOTU

Europe #25

Elo 1,657 · 26th

K27

Europe #26

Elo 1,619 · 46th

GamerLegion

Europe #21

Elo 1,616 · 47th

Alliance

Europe #18

Elo 1,605 · 52nd

In the race · 1%

Luminosity

Europe #13

Elo 1,575 · 60th

Envy

Outside the top 40

Elo 1,360 · 275th

How these numbers are made

Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 22 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
The other 8 seats are filled in each run from who usually plays where; no team is named there.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.