Outside the profile on three of seven. They match it on LAN wins, win rate and head to head and beat it on activity.Band is the other 18 Europe sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered53Bounty collected60Opponent network62LAN wins59Activity90Win rate47Head to head35
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. BBL are 40th, 22 places outside.
<1%BBL are 40th, 22 places outside the 18, 242 points behind HEROICChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
100 Thieves and Ninjas in Pyjamas come up into the 18, Alliance and magic fall out.
How these numbers are made
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -8.34.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.25.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -23.31.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Aug
Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Open Qualifier
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -21.44.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
7 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.35
Still counts99%
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
22 Jul – 25 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: European Qualifier
Record2–2
Head to head+11.55
Still counts90%
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
19 Jul
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.30
Still counts86%
These results are down to 86% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.30.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
28 Jun
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+16.28
Still counts73%
These results are down to 73% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
23 Jun – 27 Jun
Super DraculaN Season 1
Record3–1
Head to head+30.36
Still counts72%
These results are down to 72% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
18 Jun – 21 Jun
Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier
Record2–1
Head to head+20.28
Still counts68%
These results are down to 68% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
3 Jun
CCT Europe 2026 Series 3
Record0–1
Head to head-10.82
Still counts56%
These results are down to 56% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -10.82.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 May
BC.Game Masters Season 2 Europe Series 2
Record0–1
Head to head-10.35
Still counts53%
These results are down to 53% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -10.35.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
29 May
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+2.90
Still counts53%
These results are down to 53% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
WNordic PartnersMay 29A win outside the ten best+2.90
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +2.90.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
28 May
CCT Europe 2026 Series 2
Record0–1
Head to head-11.86
Still counts52%
These results are down to 52% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -11.86.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
21 May
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-10.38
Still counts47%
These results are down to 47% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -10.38.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
9 May – 21 May
NODWIN Clutch Series 8
Record6–0
Head to head+32.95
Still counts47%
These results are down to 47% of their original weight.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
7 May
BC.Game Masters Season 2 Europe Series 1
Record0–1
Head to head-10.78
Still counts38%
These results are down to 38% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -10.78.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 Apr
Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-2.48
Still counts33%
These results are down to 33% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.48.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
13 Apr – 28 Apr
Conquest of Prague 2026: Online Stage
Record3–3
Head to head-2.30
Still counts32%
These results are down to 32% of their original weight.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LWalczakiApr 28A loss-6.81
WSINNERSApr 24A win outside the ten best+3.90
WfnaticApr 23A win outside the ten best+7.07
WJohnny SpeedsApr 20A win outside the ten best+1.48
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.30.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
9 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-4.10
Still counts19%
These results are down to 19% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -4.10.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
8 Apr
CCT Season 3 European Series 20
Record1–0
Head to head+0.34
Still counts18%
These results are down to 18% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.34.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
3 Apr – 5 Apr
Urban Riga Open 4
Record1–1
Head to head-3.57
Still counts16%
These results are down to 16% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
3 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.07
Still counts15%
These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 Mar
NODWIN Clutch Series 6
Record0–1
Head to head-3.66
Still counts13%
These results are down to 13% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -3.66.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Mar – 25 Mar
BC.Game Masters Championship
Record3–2
Head to head+1.07
Still counts9%
These results are down to 9% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
14 Mar – 15 Mar
Dust2.dk Ligaen Season 31
Record4–1
Head to head+0.11
Still counts3%
These results are down to 3% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
WSashiMar 15A win outside the ten best+0.48
WECSTATICMar 15A win outside the ten best+0.04
WstruggletonyMar 14A win outside the ten best+0.03
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.11.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For BBL that is 1,155.8 minus 19.3.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,155.8
+
Head to head−19.3
=
Points1,137
The head-to-head correction is 1.7% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.406median 0.658
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.392median 0.558
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.196median 0.287
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.594median 0.838
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,155.8; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
BBL: Below the median of the 24 chasing the slots on all four factors.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
WWWLLWLLWWLWWWLWWWLWLWWLLLWLWL
Every match by opponent strength
Black Phoenix #90 −23.3Inner Circle #14 +18.5+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200BBL #53Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
9 of the 57 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 18.5 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Nemiga
FOKUS
BBL
Omega
Sangal
