← Race to the Major

Nemesis

Europe
6 stage 36 stage 26 stage 1
mag1k3Y · r3salt · Sdaim · SELLTER · tex1y
Outside the profile on two of seven. They match it on bounty offered, opponent network and win rate and beat it on activity and head to head.Band is the other 18 Europe sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Down on five of seven since the 3 August release. Up on head to head.Dashed is Nemesis's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered76 Bounty collected66 Opponent network74 LAN wins43 Activity93 Win rate80 Head to head96
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
16%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Europe standing
34th
  1. 32Nuclear TigeRES
  2. 33Luminosity
  3. 34Nemesis
  4. 35Acend
  5. 36INFINITE
16 places outside the Major
VRS points
1,228
World #45 · 151 behind HEROIC
Since April
27th to 34th
Peaked 21st · Valve's standings
Next match
vs SINNERS
7days away
Oct 8 · BO3 · 1win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier
// Act one

The verdict

Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Nemesis are 34th, 16 places outside.

16% Nemesis are 34th, 16 places outside the 18, 151 points behind HEROIC Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Europe · 18 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1Spirit2,031
2MOUZ1,902
3Falcons1,881
4FUT1,846
5Vitality1,841
6G21,723
7FaZe1,599
8Natus Vincere1,579
9Aurora1,553
10B81,515
11Inner Circle1,502
12BETBOOM1,499
13BIG1,480
14PARIVISION1,461
15Astralis1,446
16Alliance1,402
17magic1,402
18HEROIC1,379
19HOTU1,371
20100 Thieves1,347
21GamerLegion1,345
22Ninjas in Pyjamas1,338
23Betclic1,331
34Nemesis1,228
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
1Spirit1–2>99%
4MOUZ2–7>99%
2Falcons2–6>99%
7FUT4–9>99%
3Vitality1–5>99%
5G23–7>99%
14FaZe10–2572%
9Natus Vincere6–2286%
6Aurora4–8>99%
10B89–1598%
15Inner Circle13–2358%
8BETBOOM5–10>99%
16BIG12–2754%
12PARIVISION9–3068%
11Astralis10–2088%
19Alliance14–3027%
21magic15–2822%
13HEROIC10–1892%
22HOTU16–3121%
18100 Thieves13–2843%
20GamerLegion15–2723%
17Ninjas in Pyjamas14–2743%
24Betclic31–45<1%
23Nemesis16–4116%
NemesisComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

100 Thieves and Ninjas in Pyjamas come up into the 18, Alliance and magic fall out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play
CIS LAN Championship 8Sep 29 – Oct 2 · Tier C · LAN 3impact
1win Private Club 2: Closed QualifierOct 7 – Oct 10 · Tier B · Online 19impact
Nemesis#34 Europe 16%now 9%20%

Our model also expects them at 3 more events before the cut.

// Act two

How they got here

60 matches in Valve's six-month window, 40 won, across 23 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

4 Sep – 5 Sep
Stake Ranked Episode 4: Closed Qualifier
The event's page →
Record1–1
Head to head-12.16
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L NemigaSep 5A loss -19.90
W ASTRALSep 4Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #5 +7.74
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

1 Sep – 3 Sep
NODWIN Clutch Series 11
The event's page →
Record2–1
Head to head+16.74
Still counts100%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L HOTUSep 3A loss -8.00
W 1winSep 2Bounty collected #5Opponent network #2LAN wins #6 +18.90
W SPARTASep 1Bounty collectedOpponent network #3LAN wins #7 +5.84
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

31 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-17.13
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Nuclear TigeRESAug 31A loss -17.13
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -17.13.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

26 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+18.70
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W 1winAug 26Bounty collected #10Opponent network #10LAN wins #8 +18.70
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

24 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.68
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W XcityAug 24Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +0.68
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

22 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+8.61
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W ColorAug 22Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #10 +8.61
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

22 Jul – 24 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: European Qualifier
Record1–2
Head to head-3.44
Still counts90%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L INFINITEJul 24A loss -13.66
L AuroraJul 22A loss -3.42
W INFINITEJul 22A win outside the ten best +13.64
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -3.44.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

21 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-6.67
Still counts88%

These results are down to 88% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AstralisJul 21A loss -6.67
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -6.67.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

1 Jul – 9 Jul
XSE Pro League 2026
Record3–2
Head to head+39.58
Still counts80%

These results are down to 80% of their original weight.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AllianceJul 9A loss -6.16
W EYEBALLERSJul 4Bounty collected #3Opponent network #5LAN wins #1 +15.04
L BETBOOMJul 3A loss -3.27
W B8Jul 2Bounty collected #1Opponent network #1LAN wins #2 +19.70
W LuminosityJul 1Bounty collected #2Opponent network #8LAN wins #3 +14.27
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

18 Jun – 20 Jun
CCT Europe 2026 Series 4
Record1–1
Head to head-5.07
Still counts67%

These results are down to 67% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 1winJun 20A loss -7.12
W BebopJun 18A win outside the ten best +2.05
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -5.07.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

15 Jun – 17 Jun
NODWIN Clutch Series 9
Record3–1
Head to head+17.34
Still counts65%

These results are down to 65% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Nuclear TigeRESJun 17A loss -11.42
W 1winJun 17Bounty collected #8Opponent network #4LAN wins +14.05
W INFINITEJun 16Bounty collectedOpponent network #7LAN wins +11.58
W CYBERSHOKEJun 15A win outside the ten best +3.13
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

29 May – 31 May
BC.Game Masters Season 2 Europe Series 2
Record4–0
Head to head+36.73
Still counts54%

These results are down to 54% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W FOKUSMay 31Bounty collected #6Opponent networkLAN wins +9.63
W Iberian SoulMay 31Bounty collected #7Opponent networkLAN wins +9.10
W 100 ThievesMay 30Bounty collected #4Opponent network #9LAN wins +13.24
W LavkedMay 29Bounty collectedOpponent network #6LAN wins +4.76
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 5 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

26 May – 28 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Europe
Record1–1
Head to head+0.50
Still counts52%

These results are down to 52% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 1winMay 28A loss -4.48
W INOX DivisionMay 26A win outside the ten best +4.98
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.50.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

18 May
NODWIN Clutch Series 8
Record0–1
Head to head-8.24
Still counts45%

These results are down to 45% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L WalczakiMay 18A loss -8.24
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -8.24.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

8 May
BC.Game Masters Season 2 Europe Series 1
Record0–1
Head to head-10.24
Still counts38%

These results are down to 38% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L CYBERSHOKEMay 8A loss -10.24
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -10.24.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

23 Apr – 3 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Europe - Cup 4
Record6–0
Head to head+19.06
Still counts35%

These results are down to 35% of their original weight.

6 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W SPARTAMay 3A win outside the ten best +2.29
W SPARTAMay 1A win outside the ten best +2.17
W fnaticApr 29A win outside the ten best +8.00
W HashirasApr 27A win outside the ten best +0.76
W The Last ResortApr 25A win outside the ten best +2.42
W UPGRADEApr 23A win outside the ten best +3.42
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +19.06.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

8 Apr – 10 Apr
CCT Season 3 European Series 20
Record4–0
Head to head+14.24
Still counts20%

These results are down to 20% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W BIGApr 10Bounty collected #9Opponent networkLAN wins +5.78
W WalczakiApr 10A win outside the ten best +2.18
W EYEBALLERSApr 9A win outside the ten best +4.38
W ex-RUSTECApr 8A win outside the ten best +1.90
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

31 Mar – 3 Apr
CCT Season 3 European Series 19
Record4–0
Head to head+4.13
Still counts15%

These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W WalczakiApr 3A win outside the ten best +1.73
W ECSTATICApr 3A win outside the ten best +0.34
W RBLSApr 2A win outside the ten best +0.76
W STATEMar 31A win outside the ten best +1.30
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +4.13.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

1 Apr – 2 Apr
Stake Ranked Episode 1
Record0–2
Head to head-1.00
Still counts14%

These results are down to 14% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L HEROICApr 2A loss -0.87
L G2Apr 1A loss -0.13
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.00.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 Mar – 2 Apr
NODWIN Clutch Series 6
Record2–1
Head to head-1.10
Still counts14%

These results are down to 14% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Johnny SpeedsApr 2A loss -3.63
W NemigaApr 1A win outside the ten best +1.45
W PsychoFaceMar 30A win outside the ten best +1.08
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.10.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

17 Mar – 24 Mar
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Europe - Cup 2
Record3–2
Head to head-1.68
Still counts9%

These results are down to 9% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L NemigaMar 24A loss -1.84
L K27Mar 23A loss -0.34
W TDKMar 21A win outside the ten best +0.15
W rottweilersMar 19A win outside the ten best +0.05
W ex-Zero TenacityMar 17A win outside the ten best +0.30
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.68.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

13 Mar – 14 Mar
BC.Game Masters Season 1
Record1–1
Head to head-0.36
Still counts2%

These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Eternal FireMar 14A loss -0.54
W WWMar 13A win outside the ten best +0.18
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.36.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

12 Mar
CIS LAN Championship 3
Record1–1
Head to head+0.04
Still counts1%

These results are down to 1% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W NemigaMar 12Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #4 +0.05
L K27Mar 12A loss -0.01
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Nemesis that is 1,119.0 plus 109.2.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,119.0
+
Head to head+109.2
=
Points1,228

The head-to-head correction is 8.9% of the total.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.563median 0.658
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.442median 0.558
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.252median 0.287
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.254median 0.838
NemesisMedian of the 24 chasing the slots in Europe
The four factors0.563 + 0.442 + 0.252 + 0.254
Their average÷ 4 = 0.378
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.378 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 1,118.7
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 1,119.0; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

Nemesis: Below the median of the 24 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,627
Rank by our Elo32 of 538
Valve's world standing45

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W L W W W W W W W L W L W W L W L L W L L W W W L W W L W L
Every match by opponent strength

10 of the 60 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 19.7 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.