// Event · Tier B

1win Private Club 2: Closed Qualifier

7 Oct – 10 Oct 2026 Online 16 teams 23 days before the cut
Race impact ?
19
10th largest of 17 before the cut

Why it matters

Facts beside our number
Valve's event weight
0.14
From its prize pool of $0, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.
Teams in the race known to attend
5
NemesisK27fnaticNuclear TigeRESSINNERS
Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures. Our model expects 2 more.
Timing
23 days before the cut
TodayCut · 2 Nov
Starts in 6 days. Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

5 teams in the race known to attend

Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.

TeamTodayWhen it pays off
Out before the quarter-finals
9%
-7 points
Quarter-final
10%
-6 points
Semi-final
14%
-2 points
Final
31%
+15 points
Win it
38%
+22 points

Nemesis need a final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 16% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 7 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs SINNERS, 8 Oct Nemesis's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
-3 points
Quarter-final
2%
-2 points
Semi-final
2%
-2 points
Final
9%
+5 points
Win it
19%
+14 points

K27 need a final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 4% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 3 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs Metizport, 7 Oct K27's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
4%
-3 points
Quarter-final
4%
-2 points
Semi-final
6%
-1 points
Final
14%
+7 points
Win it
21%
+14 points

fnatic need a final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 7% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 3 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs Phantom, 7 Oct fnatic's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
-3 points
Quarter-final
<1%
-3 points
Semi-final
<1%
-2 points
Final
9%
+6 points
Win it
17%
+13 points

Nuclear TigeRES need a final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 3% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 3 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs Color, 8 Oct Nuclear TigeRES's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
-1 points
Quarter-final
<1%
-1 points
Semi-final
1%
0 points
Final
6%
+4 points
Win it
12%
+10 points

SINNERS need a final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 2% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 1 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs Nemesis, 8 Oct SINNERS's page →

The field

12 known · 4 by our model · strongest first, by our Elo
In the race · 3%
Nuclear TigeRES
Europe #32
Elo 1,629 · 30th
In the race · 16%
Nemesis
Europe #34
Elo 1,627 · 32nd
In the race · 4%
K27
Europe #29
Elo 1,616 · 38th
In the race · 7%
fnatic
Europe #26
Elo 1,599 · 44th
In the race · 2%
SINNERS
Europe #44
Elo 1,586 · 47th
Metizport
Europe #47
Elo 1,565 · 56th
Sashi
Europe #37
Elo 1,538 · 67th
Phantom
Europe #48
Elo 1,521 · 71st
C
Color
Europe #45
Elo 1,520 · 72nd
Betclic
Europe #23
Elo 1,516 · 77th
Acend
Europe #35
Elo 1,514 · 79th
P
PRIVATE
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
How these numbers are made
  • Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 1 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
  • Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
  • Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
  • The other 4 seats are filled in each run from who usually plays where; no team is named there.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.