Outside the profile on four of seven. They match it on activity, win rate and head to head.Band is the other 18 Europe sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Down on four of seven since the 3 August release. Up on opponent network and head to head.Dashed is SINNERS's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered65Bounty collected50Opponent network60LAN wins52Activity62Win rate31Head to head75
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. SINNERS are 44th, 26 places outside.
2%SINNERS are 44th, 26 places outside the 18, 263 points behind HEROICChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
100 Thieves and Ninjas in Pyjamas come up into the 18, Alliance and magic fall out.
How these numbers are made
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Among their most valuable. It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count, level with 1 other event.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -11.91.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -14.53.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
7 Aug – 8 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+1.51
Still counts100%
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
23 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-0.33
Still counts89%
These results are down to 89% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.33.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
1 Jul – 3 Jul
XSE Pro League 2026
Record0–3
Head to head-4.29
Still counts76%
These results are down to 76% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -4.29.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 Jun – 3 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1
Record0–3
Head to head-19.23
Still counts56%
These results are down to 56% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -19.23.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
11 May – 13 May
Intel Extreme Masters Atlanta 2026
Record1–2
Head to head-1.31
Still counts42%
These results are down to 42% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Apr – 26 Apr
LORGAR RANKINGS
Record3–0
Head to head+10.49
Still counts31%
These results are down to 31% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count, level with 1 other event.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
13 Apr – 24 Apr
Conquest of Prague 2026: Online Stage
Record2–3
Head to head-12.85
Still counts29%
These results are down to 29% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LBBLApr 24A loss-3.90
LYoung NinjasApr 22A loss-8.09
LSashiApr 20A loss-2.58
WClutchainApr 15A win outside the ten best+0.24
WJohnny SpeedsApr 13A win outside the ten best+1.48
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -12.85.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
29 Mar – 30 Mar
Roman Imperium Cup VII
Record2–2
Head to head+3.83
Still counts12%
These results are down to 12% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Mar – 26 Mar
BC.Game Masters Championship
Record4–0
Head to head+9.35
Still counts10%
These results are down to 10% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For SINNERS that is 1,087.9 plus 28.4.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,087.9
+
Head to head+28.4
=
Points1,116
The head-to-head correction is 2.5% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.503median 0.658
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.335median 0.558
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.189median 0.287
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.420median 0.838
SINNERSMedian of the 24 chasing the slots in Europe
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,087.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
SINNERS: Below the median of the 24 chasing the slots on all four factors.
12 of the 42 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 3.9 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
INOX Division
SINNERS
Iberian Soul
Lilmix
