Outside the profile on three of seven. They match it on LAN wins, activity, win rate and head to head.Band is the other 8 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Down on one of seven since the 3 August release. Up on opponent network.Dashed is NRG's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered48Bounty collected54Opponent network48LAN wins67Activity32Win rate27Head to head67
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. NRG hold the 9th.
71%NRG hold the last Stage 1 slot, 32 points clear of WildcardChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.
// Act two
How they got here
30 matches in Valve's six-month window, 15 won, across 9 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
28 Jul – 2 Aug
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Among their most valuable. It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count, level with 2 other events.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
12 Jul
FRAG 2026 Windsor
Record3–0
Head to head+14.84
Still counts82%
These results are down to 82% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count, level with 2 other events.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 Jun – 5 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1
Record2–3
Head to head+4.00
Still counts57%
These results are down to 57% of their original weight.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 6 of the thirty slots that count, level with 2 other events.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
19 May – 20 May
CS Asia Championships 2026
Record0–2
Head to head-0.52
Still counts47%
These results are down to 47% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.52.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
11 May – 12 May
Intel Extreme Masters Atlanta 2026
Record0–2
Head to head-1.19
Still counts41%
These results are down to 41% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.19.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Apr
FRAG 20
Record2–1
Head to head-5.08
Still counts30%
These results are down to 30% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
4 Apr – 7 Apr
PGL Bucharest 2026
Record1–3
Head to head-1.13
Still counts18%
These results are down to 18% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
18 Mar – 22 Mar
BLAST Open Spring 2026
Record1–2
Head to head+1.48
Still counts7%
These results are down to 7% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For NRG that is 1,149.9 plus 16.6.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,149.9
+
Head to head+16.6
=
Points1,167
The head-to-head correction is 1.4% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.393median 0.535
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.347median 0.517
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.128median 0.204
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.708median 0.715
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,149.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
NRG: Below the median of the 14 chasing the slots on all four factors.
11 of the 30 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 3.0 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
M80
paiN
NRG
Wildcard
Imperial
