100 Thieves and Ninjas in Pyjamas come up into the 18, Alliance and magic fall out.
How these numbers are made
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.
// Act two
How they got here
43 matches in Valve's six-month window, 29 won, across 13 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
2 Sep – 3 Sep
Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Qualifier
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
21 Jul – 26 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: European Qualifier
Record4–0
Head to head+31.14
Still counts91%
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
WNinjas in PyjamasJul 26Bounty collected #10Opponent networkLAN wins+12.50
WIberian SoulJul 25A win outside the ten best+6.91
WIberian SoulJul 21A win outside the ten best+6.47
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-19.19
Still counts90%
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -19.19.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
9 Jul – 10 Jul
RES Showdown Europe Fall 2026
Record1–1
Head to head-5.74
Still counts81%
These results are down to 81% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
27 May – 30 May
Stake Ranked Episode 2
Record3–1
Head to head+15.95
Still counts53%
These results are down to 53% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LNinjas in PyjamasMay 30A loss-9.58
WNinjas in PyjamasMay 29Bounty collected #6Opponent network #9LAN wins #3+6.90
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
9 May – 17 May
PGL Astana 2026
Record4–4
Head to head+14.66
Still counts44%
These results are down to 44% of their original weight.
8 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 12 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 Apr – 3 May
Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier
Record3–0
Head to head+5.97
Still counts35%
These results are down to 35% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Apr
NODWIN Clutch Series 7
Record0–1
Head to head-7.83
Still counts30%
These results are down to 30% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -7.83.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
4 Apr – 5 Apr
HLC Cyprus Pro
Record2–2
Head to head-6.00
Still counts17%
These results are down to 17% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
4 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+0.04
Still counts16%
These results are down to 16% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.04.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
31 Mar – 3 Apr
PGL Astana 2026: European Qualifier
Record4–0
Head to head+8.25
Still counts15%
These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +8.25.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
23 Mar
PGL Astana 2026: European Open Qualifier 1
Record2–0
Head to head+0.58
Still counts8%
These results are down to 8% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
WNuclear TigeRESMar 23A win outside the ten best+0.40
WInner Circle AcademyMar 23A win outside the ten best+0.18
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.58.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For magic that is 1,355.9 plus 46.2.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,355.9
+
Head to head+46.2
=
Points1,402
The head-to-head correction is 3.3% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.589median 0.682
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.559median 0.559
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.257median 0.295
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.604median 0.851
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,355.9; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
magic: Above the median of the 23 chasing the slots on bounty collected, below on bounty offered, opponent network and LAN wins.
17 of the 43 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 24.6 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Astralis
Alliance
magic
HEROIC
HOTU
