← Race to the Major

LAG

Americas
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
Bwills · Cryptic · djay · Sandman · SLIGHT
Outside the profile on four of seven. They match it on LAN wins, activity and win rate.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on six of seven since the 3 August release. Dashed is LAG's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered41 Bounty collected25 Opponent network28 LAN wins69 Activity74 Win rate44 Head to head12
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
16th
  1. 14Galorys
  2. 15BESTIA
  3. 16LAG
  4. 17Voca
  5. 18ShindeN
7 places outside the Major
VRS points
984
World #87 · 183 behind NRG
Since April
25th to 16th
Valve's standings
// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. LAG are 16th, 7 places outside.

<1% LAG are 16th, 7 places outside the 9, 183 points behind NRG Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1Legacy1,783
2FURIA1,754
39z1,606
4Liquid1,465
5MIBR1,408
6DENDELE1,301
7M801,270
8paiN1,268
9NRG1,167
10Wildcard1,135
11Imperial1,085
12SportsBetExpert1,075
13Fluxo1,065
14Galorys1,006
16LAG984
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
1Legacy1–2>99%
2FURIA1–2>99%
39z3–5>99%
5Liquid3–6>99%
4MIBR4–5>99%
9DENDELE7–1254%
6M804–6>99%
11paiN8–1420%
7NRG7–1271%
12Wildcard8–1620%
8Imperial7–1261%
13SportsBetExpert8–1719%
10Fluxo9–1518%
14Galorys13–18<1%
15LAG16–22<1%
LAGComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

Imperial comes up into the 9, paiN falls out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.

// Act two

How they got here

47 matches in Valve's six-month window, 27 won, across 16 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

29 Aug – 30 Aug
FRAG Midwest: St. Louis 2026
The event's page →
Record3–0
Head to head+34.78
Still counts100%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W SportsBetExpertAug 30Bounty collected #2Opponent network #2LAN wins #1 +20.53
W Without a RoofAug 30Bounty collected #3Opponent network #3LAN wins #2 +8.76
W DETONATEAug 29Bounty collected #4Opponent network #5LAN wins #3 +5.49
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

29 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+9.34
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W For FunAug 29Bounty collected #8Opponent network #4LAN wins #4 +9.34
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

28 Jul – 31 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
The event's page →
Record1–2
Head to head-19.68
Still counts95%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SportsBetExpertJul 31A loss -8.54
W Iowa StormboarJul 29Bounty collected #5Opponent network #6LAN wins +5.83
L MarsborneJul 28A loss -16.97
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Jul – 10 Jul
BLAST Open Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Record1–1
Head to head+0.40
Still counts81%

These results are down to 81% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L M80Jul 10A loss -3.96
W Overtake SectorJul 9Bounty collected #1Opponent network #1LAN wins +4.36
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

12 Jun
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-18.19
Still counts62%

These results are down to 62% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L OlympusJun 12A loss -18.19
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -18.19.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

6 Jun
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-14.79
Still counts58%

These results are down to 58% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L VillainousJun 6A loss -14.79
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -14.79.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 May
FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026
Record1–2
Head to head-14.02
Still counts53%

These results are down to 53% of their original weight.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SportsBetExpertMay 30A loss -5.25
W Wanted GoonsMay 30Bounty collectedOpponent network #7LAN wins #5 +2.53
L MarsborneMay 30A loss -11.30
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 May
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+1.13
Still counts53%

These results are down to 53% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W absolute cinemaMay 30Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #6 +0.58
W makeSHIFTMay 30Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #7 +0.55
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Apr
FRAG 20
Record2–2
Head to head-8.16
Still counts30%

These results are down to 30% of their original weight.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Fisher CollegeApr 25A loss -7.18
W EMPIREApr 25Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +1.02
L NRGApr 25A loss -2.99
W EMPIREApr 25Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +0.99
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Apr
CCT Season 3 North American Series 4
Record0–1
Head to head-5.85
Still counts21%

These results are down to 21% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AetherApr 11A loss -5.85
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -5.85.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

1 Apr – 10 Apr
Dust2.us Eagle Masters Series 7
Record1–3
Head to head-14.25
Still counts20%

These results are down to 20% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L VillainousApr 10A loss -5.28
L BOSSApr 7A loss -5.08
W ClockworkApr 4A win outside the ten best +0.14
L EMPIREApr 1A loss -4.03
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -14.25.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

2 Apr – 7 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America - Cup 3
Record4–2
Head to head-7.19
Still counts18%

These results are down to 18% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

6 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Iowa StormboarApr 7A loss -4.94
W ZomblersApr 6Bounty collected #9Opponent network #8LAN wins +0.64
W New LegendsApr 5A win outside the ten best +0.28
W BOSSApr 4A win outside the ten best +0.54
L Iowa StormboarApr 3A loss -4.25
W Club 333Apr 2Bounty collected #6Opponent network #10LAN wins +0.54
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 4 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

31 Mar – 3 Apr
PGL Astana 2026: North American Qualifier
Record3–1
Head to head-2.75
Still counts16%

These results are down to 16% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Fisher CollegeApr 3A loss -3.85
W FarmVilleApr 2Bounty collectedOpponent network #9LAN wins +0.46
W BOSSApr 1A win outside the ten best +0.45
W OlympusMar 31A win outside the ten best +0.19
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

28 Mar – 29 Mar
FRAG York 2026
Record2–2
Head to head-5.44
Still counts12%

These results are down to 12% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L BOSSMar 29A loss -3.40
W Fisher CollegeMar 29Bounty collected #7Opponent networkLAN wins +0.77
L Fisher CollegeMar 29A loss -2.99
W ElusiveMar 28Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #10 +0.18
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

28 Mar
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record3–0
Head to head+0.71
Still counts11%

These results are down to 11% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W EMPIREMar 28A win outside the ten best +0.31
W EMPIREMar 28A win outside the ten best +0.31
W ZealousMar 28A win outside the ten best +0.09
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.71.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

20 Mar – 25 Mar
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America - Cup 2
Record3–2
Head to head-3.96
Still counts9%

These results are down to 9% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AetherMar 25A loss -2.72
W NuToriousMar 24A win outside the ten best +0.61
L insane playersMar 23A loss -2.32
W ShimmerMar 21Bounty collected #10Opponent networkLAN wins +0.24
W Wanted GoonsMar 20A win outside the ten best +0.23
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For LAG that is 1,051.7 minus 67.9.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,051.7
+
Head to head−67.9
=
Points984

The head-to-head correction is 6.9% of the total.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.356median 0.531
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.256median 0.510
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.048median 0.182
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.709median 0.709
LAGMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.356 + 0.256 + 0.048 + 0.709
Their average÷ 4 = 0.342
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.342 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 1,051.1
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 1,051.7; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

LAG: Above the median of the 15 chasing the slots on LAN wins, below on bounty offered, bounty collected and opponent network.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,516
Rank by our Elo78 of 538
Valve's world standing87

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
L L W W W W L L L L W L W L W L W W L L L W L L W L W W W W
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 47 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.