← Race to the Major

Falcons

Europe
6 stage 36 stage 26 stage 1
karrigan · kyousuke · m0NESY · NiKo · TeSeS
Inside the profile on all seven. Band is the other 17 Europe sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on two of seven since the 3 August release. Down on head to head.Dashed is Falcons's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered98 Bounty collected97 Opponent network96 LAN wins92 Activity56 Win rate94 Head to head32
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
>99%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Europe standing
3rd
  1. 1Spirit
  2. 2MOUZ
  3. 3Falcons
  4. 4FUT
  5. 5Vitality
In the Major, straight to Stage 3
VRS points
1,881
World #3 · 510 clear of HOTU
Since April
5th to 3rd
Peaked 2nd · Valve's standings
Next match
vs TYLOO
1day away
Oct 3 · BO3 · ESL Pro League Season 24
// Act one

The verdict

Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Falcons hold the 3rd.

>99% Falcons hold a Stage 3 slot, 510 points clear of HOTU Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Europe · 18 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1Spirit2,031
2MOUZ1,902
3Falcons1,881
4FUT1,846
5Vitality1,841
6G21,723
7FaZe1,599
8Natus Vincere1,579
9Aurora1,553
10B81,515
11Inner Circle1,502
12BETBOOM1,499
13BIG1,480
14PARIVISION1,461
15Astralis1,446
16Alliance1,402
17magic1,402
18HEROIC1,379
19HOTU1,371
20100 Thieves1,347
21GamerLegion1,345
22Ninjas in Pyjamas1,338
23Betclic1,331
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
1Spirit1–2>99%
4MOUZ2–7>99%
2Falcons2–6>99%
7FUT4–9>99%
3Vitality1–5>99%
5G23–7>99%
18FaZe12–2838%
9Natus Vincere6–2384%
6Aurora3–8>99%
10B89–1696%
16Inner Circle12–2365%
8BETBOOM4–10>99%
13BIG10–2181%
11PARIVISION8–2479%
12Astralis10–2085%
14Alliance10–2276%
17magic11–2561%
15HEROIC13–2276%
19HOTU15–2927%
21100 Thieves17–2821%
22GamerLegion18–2810%
20Ninjas in Pyjamas17–2719%
23Betclic30–44<1%
FalconsComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play
ESL Pro League Season 24Oct 3 – Oct 11 · Tier S · LAN 40impact
Thunderpick World Championship 2026Oct 14 – Oct 18 · Tier S · LAN 21impact
// Act two

How they got here

39 matches in Valve's six-month window, 28 won, across 8 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

27 Aug – 5 Sep
BLAST Open Fall 2026
The event's page →
Record3–2
Head to head-3.62
Still counts100%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SpiritSep 5A loss -10.30
W G2Sep 4Bounty collected #4Opponent network #4LAN wins #1 +9.15
L MOUZAug 31A loss -15.68
W LegacyAug 29Bounty collected #1Opponent network #3LAN wins #2 +11.89
W Lynn VisionAug 27Bounty collectedOpponent network #5LAN wins #3 +1.32
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

It holds 8 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

12 Aug – 21 Aug
Esports World Cup 2026
The event's page →
Record3–1
Head to head-15.00
Still counts100%
4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L LegacyAug 21A loss -21.01
W The MongolZAug 20Bounty collected #10Opponent network #9LAN wins #4 +2.43
W AstralisAug 13Bounty collected #9Opponent network #6LAN wins #5 +2.21
W K27Aug 12Bounty collectedOpponent network #1LAN wins #6 +1.37
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

It holds 8 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

22 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-26.73
Still counts89%

These results are down to 89% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 100 ThievesJul 22A loss -26.73
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -26.73.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

11 Jun – 21 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026
Record6–1
Head to head+22.59
Still counts68%

These results are down to 68% of their original weight.

7 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W FURIAJun 21Bounty collected #5Opponent networkLAN wins #7 +7.04
W SpiritJun 20Bounty collected #2Opponent network #2LAN wins #8 +13.70
W VitalityJun 19Bounty collected #3Opponent network #10LAN wins #9 +10.25
W Natus VincereJun 14Bounty collected #8Opponent networkLAN wins #10 +3.49
W LuminosityJun 13A win outside the ten best +0.61
L BETBOOMJun 12A loss -17.47
W G2Jun 11A win outside the ten best +4.97
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected4 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 10 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

20 May – 24 May
CS Asia Championships 2026
Record4–1
Head to head+4.59
Still counts49%

These results are down to 49% of their original weight.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L LegacyMay 24A loss -9.62
W MOUZMay 23Bounty collected #6Opponent network #8LAN wins +7.67
W LegacyMay 21Bounty collected #7Opponent networkLAN wins +5.79
W M80May 20A win outside the ten best +0.33
W BC.GameMay 20A win outside the ten best +0.42
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 May – 17 May
PGL Astana 2026
Record5–2
Head to head-7.83
Still counts44%

These results are down to 44% of their original weight.

7 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L SpiritMay 17A loss -5.03
W magicMay 16A win outside the ten best +0.67
W FURIAMay 15A win outside the ten best +4.40
W The MongolZMay 12A win outside the ten best +0.92
W LuminosityMay 11A win outside the ten best +0.29
L 9zMay 10A loss -9.88
W K27May 9Bounty collectedOpponent network #7LAN wins +0.80
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

13 Apr – 19 Apr
Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2026
Record4–1
Head to head+8.02
Still counts26%

These results are down to 26% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W FURIAApr 19A win outside the ten best +2.79
L SpiritApr 18A loss -2.99
W VitalityApr 15A win outside the ten best +3.52
W SpiritApr 14A win outside the ten best +4.47
W 3DMAXApr 13A win outside the ten best +0.23
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +8.02.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

18 Mar – 27 Mar
BLAST Open Spring 2026
Record3–2
Head to head-3.71
Still counts11%

These results are down to 11% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L PARIVISIONMar 27A loss -3.04
W FURIAMar 23A win outside the ten best +0.85
W TYLOOMar 22A win outside the ten best +0.09
L Natus VincereMar 20A loss -1.63
W NRGMar 18A win outside the ten best +0.02
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -3.71.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Falcons that is 1,903.0 minus 21.7.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,903.0
+
Head to head−21.7
=
Points1,881

The head-to-head correction is 1.2% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 1.000median 0.682
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.789median 0.559
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.399median 0.295
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.972median 0.851
FalconsMedian of the 23 chasing the slots in Europe
The four factors1.000 + 0.789 + 0.399 + 0.972
Their average÷ 4 = 0.790
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.790 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 1,903.0
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.

Falcons: At or above the median of the 23 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,881
Rank by our Elo3 of 550
Valve's world standing3

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W W L W W W W L W W W W L W L W W W W W L W W W L W W L W L
Every match by opponent strength

30 of the 39 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 26.7 points.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.