Outside the profile on three of seven. They match it on opponent network, activity, win rate and head to head.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on four of seven since the 3 August release. Down on bounty offered and LAN wins.Dashed is 5star's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered31Bounty collected34Opponent network36LAN wins48Activity65Win rate58Head to head57
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. 5star are 8th, 3 places outside.
9%5star are 8th, 3 places outside the 5, 247 points behind DEPOChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
// Act two
How they got here
44 matches in Valve's six-month window, 27 won, across 14 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+11.20
Still counts100%
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Aug
Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Asian Open Qualifier
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
22 Aug – 23 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–1
Head to head-10.05
Still counts100%
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
23 Jul – 25 Jul
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–2
Head to head-26.37
Still counts90%
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
10 Jul – 11 Jul
GGMedia Challenger Series Season 1
Record1–1
Head to head+5.39
Still counts81%
These results are down to 81% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LLynn VisionJul 11A loss-2.44
WAlter EgoJul 10Bounty collected #8Opponent network #1LAN wins+7.83
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
11 May – 14 May
Asian Champions League 2026
Record3–2
Head to head+17.10
Still counts42%
These results are down to 42% of their original weight.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 8 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 May
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+10.37
Still counts34%
These results are down to 34% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+2.07
Still counts34%
These results are down to 34% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 Apr – 5 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Asia - Cup 3
Record3–2
Head to head-2.58
Still counts16%
These results are down to 16% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LNEXVOIDApr 5A loss-3.24
WChange The GameApr 4A win outside the ten best+1.13
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 Apr – 4 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–1
Head to head-1.11
Still counts16%
These results are down to 16% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
20 Mar – 22 Mar
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Asia - Cup 2
Record1–2
Head to head-2.83
Still counts7%
These results are down to 7% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LQuantumXMar 22A loss-1.79
LJust SwingMar 21A loss-1.44
WChange The GameMar 20A win outside the ten best+0.40
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.83.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
16 Mar – 20 Mar
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record5–3
Head to head-0.35
Still counts6%
These results are down to 6% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
8 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For 5star that is 865.1 plus 2.0.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value865.1
+
Head to head+2.0
=
Points867
The head-to-head correction is 0.2% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.323median 0.361
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.278median 0.316
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.068median 0.080
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.309median 0.577
5starMedian of the 10 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 865.1; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
5star: Below the median of the 10 chasing the slots on all four factors.
2 of the 44 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 1.1 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Ground Zero
5star
NEXVOID
Rare Atom
