← Race to the Major

regain

Americas
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
dvrk · grape · H0NeST · sasha · Zucar
Outside the profile on four of seven. They match it on activity, win rate and head to head.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on three of seven since the 3 August release. Down on head to head.Dashed is regain's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered33 Bounty collected33 Opponent network31 LAN wins29 Activity58 Win rate65 Head to head58
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
<1%
Chance of a place
at the Major
Our simulation to the 2 Nov cut
Americas standing
32nd
  1. 31Yawara
  2. 32regain
  3. 33MIBR fe
  4. 34Fake do Biru
23 places outside the Major
VRS points
767
World #164 · 400 behind NRG
Since April
59th to 32nd
Valve's standings
// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. regain are 32nd, 23 places outside.

<1% regain are 32nd, 23 places outside the 9, 400 points behind NRG Chance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026

Who they are racing

Americas · 9 slots
TodayValve's Regional Standings, 7 Sep
1Legacy1,783
2FURIA1,754
39z1,606
4Liquid1,465
5MIBR1,408
6DENDELE1,301
7M801,270
8paiN1,268
9NRG1,167
10Wildcard1,135
11Imperial1,085
12SportsBetExpert1,075
13Fluxo1,065
14Galorys1,006
32regain767
At the cutOurs · ordered by median place · range · chance of the Major
1Legacy1–2>99%
2FURIA1–2>99%
39z3–5>99%
5Liquid3–6>99%
4MIBR4–5>99%
9DENDELE7–1254%
6M804–6>99%
11paiN8–1420%
7NRG7–1271%
12Wildcard8–1620%
8Imperial7–1261%
13SportsBetExpert8–1719%
10Fluxo9–1518%
14Galorys13–18<1%
15regain26–42<1%
regainComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut

Imperial comes up into the 9, paiN falls out.

How these numbers are made
  • Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.

Their calendar to the cut

Events they are known to play

No event before the cut where they are known to play.

Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.

// Act two

How they got here

40 matches in Valve's six-month window, 25 won, across 16 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.

29 Aug – 30 Aug
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–1
Head to head-11.46
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L For FunAug 30A loss -14.79
W SkylineAug 29Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #1 +3.33
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

29 Aug
FRAG Midwest: St. Louis 2026
The event's page →
Record0–1
Head to head-20.96
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L DETONATEAug 29A loss -20.96
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -20.96.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

28 Jul – 31 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
The event's page →
Record1–2
Head to head-3.37
Still counts95%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L MarsborneJul 31A loss -10.97
W Chicken CoopJul 30Bounty collected #2Opponent network #2LAN wins #2 +18.85
L VocaJul 28A loss -11.25
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Jul – 10 Jul
BLAST Open Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Record1–1
Head to head+5.56
Still counts81%

These results are down to 81% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L VocaJul 10A loss -10.49
W MarsborneJul 9Bounty collected #1Opponent network #1LAN wins #4 +16.05
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Jul
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+9.18
Still counts80%

These results are down to 80% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W Club 333Jul 9Bounty collected #3Opponent network #4LAN wins #3 +9.18
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

2 Jul
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+3.63
Still counts75%

These results are down to 75% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W raisedbypixelsJul 2Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #5 +3.63
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 1 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

29 Jun
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+10.29
Still counts73%

These results are down to 73% of their original weight.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W VillainousJun 29Bounty collected #6Opponent network #3LAN wins #6 +10.29
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

26 Apr – 1 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America - Cup 4
Record4–2
Head to head+6.59
Still counts34%

These results are down to 34% of their original weight.

6 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L ZomblersMay 1A loss -6.80
W FarmVilleApr 30Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #7 +3.48
W Chicken CoopApr 29Bounty collected #4Opponent network #5LAN wins #8 +6.61
W Wanted GoonsApr 28Bounty collectedOpponent networkLAN wins #9 +4.09
L ZomblersApr 27A loss -6.31
W Fisher CollegeApr 26Bounty collected #5Opponent network #9LAN wins #10 +5.52
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins4 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 8 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

23 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+3.33
Still counts29%

These results are down to 29% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W ZomblersApr 23Bounty collected #7Opponent network #7LAN wins +3.33
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

19 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+2.23
Still counts26%

These results are down to 26% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W ClayMakersApr 19A win outside the ten best +2.23
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +2.23.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

31 Mar – 18 Apr
Dust2.us Eagle Masters Series 7
Record4–1
Head to head+1.03
Still counts25%

These results are down to 25% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Club 333Apr 18A loss -5.41
W EMPIREApr 15A win outside the ten best +2.39
W Club 333Apr 6A win outside the ten best +1.72
W AetherApr 3A win outside the ten best +1.57
W girl kissersMar 31A win outside the ten best +0.76
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +1.03.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

6 Apr – 13 Apr
CCT Season 3 North American Series 4
Record3–1
Head to head+3.83
Still counts22%

These results are down to 22% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

4 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L VocaApr 13A loss -2.82
W ZomblersApr 12Bounty collected #9Opponent network #8LAN wins +2.45
W FarmVilleApr 8A win outside the ten best +2.02
W Iowa StormboarApr 6A win outside the ten best +2.18
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

2 Apr – 8 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America - Cup 3
Record3–2
Head to head-2.63
Still counts19%

These results are down to 19% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Iowa StormboarApr 8A loss -3.56
L NuToriousApr 7A loss -2.41
W ZomblersApr 5Bounty collected #10Opponent network #10LAN wins +1.99
W TSGApr 3A win outside the ten best +0.81
W FlyQuest REDApr 2A win outside the ten best +0.54
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

31 Mar – 2 Apr
PGL Astana 2026: North American Qualifier
Record1–2
Head to head-4.17
Still counts15%

These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L BOSSApr 2A loss -3.02
W ZomblersApr 1Bounty collected #8Opponent network #6LAN wins +1.65
L FarmVilleMar 31A loss -2.80
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

It holds 2 of the thirty slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Mar
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.95
Still counts10%

These results are down to 10% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W Club 333Mar 25A win outside the ten best +0.95
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.95.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

20 Mar – 22 Mar
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America - Cup 2
Record1–2
Head to head-1.93
Still counts7%

These results are down to 7% of their original weight: almost out of the window.

3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 900FPSvsECOMar 22A loss -1.65
L insane playersMar 21A loss -1.40
W NuToriousMar 20A win outside the ten best +1.12
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.93.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For regain that is 764.6 plus 2.1.

The two parts

Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value764.6
+
Head to head+2.1
=
Points767

The head-to-head correction is 0.3% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.327median 0.531
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.276median 0.510
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.052median 0.182
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.112median 0.708
regainMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.327 + 0.276 + 0.052 + 0.112
Their average÷ 4 = 0.192
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.192 ÷ 0.841 × 1,600 = 764.8
  • 0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 764.6; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

regain: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,428
Rank by our Elo160 of 538
Valve's world standing164

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W W W W L W L W L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W L L W L L W L
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 40 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.