Outside the profile on six of seven. They match it on head to head.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on three of seven since the 3 August release. Down on head to head.Dashed is XDM's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered1Bounty collected12Opponent network14LAN wins7Activity7Win rate8Head to head55
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. XDM are 40th, 35 places outside.
<1%XDM are 40th, 35 places outside the 5, 603 points behind DEPOChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
// Act two
How they got here
8 matches in Valve's six-month window, 3 won, across 3 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 9 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
1 Apr – 2 Apr
GangKui Cup Season 2
Record0–2
Head to head-1.90
Still counts14%
These results are down to 14% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.90.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 9 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
27 Mar – 29 Mar
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–1
Head to head+3.14
Still counts12%
These results are down to 12% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 6 of the 9 slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 9 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For XDM that is 510.1 plus 0.9.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value510.1
+
Head to head+0.9
=
Points511
The head-to-head correction is 0.2% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.000median 0.355
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.220median 0.304
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.012median 0.077
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.000median 0.543
XDMMedian of the 11 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 510.1; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
XDM: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 8 matches Valve counted · oldest first
LWWLLWLL
Every match by opponent strength
Nas #336 −15.65star #121 +27.1+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200XDM #347Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
None of the 8 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Nas
XDM
NSN
FURY
