Outside the profile on five of seven. They match it on LAN wins and beat it on win rate.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on five of seven since the 3 August release. Down on head to head.Dashed is SportsBetExpert's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered34Bounty collected27Opponent network29LAN wins88Activity24Win rate87Head to head11
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. SportsBetExpert are 12th, 3 places outside.
19%SportsBetExpert are 12th, 3 places outside the 9, 92 points behind NRGChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
SportsBetExpertComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
Imperial comes up into the 9, paiN falls out.
How these numbers are made
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their most valuable event. It holds 13 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
29 Jul – 2 Aug
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
12 Jul
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–1
Head to head-8.89
Still counts82%
These results are down to 82% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 May – 31 May
FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026
Record3–2
Head to head-21.21
Still counts54%
These results are down to 54% of their original weight.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 May
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–0
Head to head+3.63
Still counts49%
These results are down to 49% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For SportsBetExpert that is 1,145.6 minus 70.9.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,145.6
+
Head to head−70.9
=
Points1,075
The head-to-head correction is 6.6% of the total.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.330median 0.535
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.262median 0.517
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.050median 0.204
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.926median 0.715
SportsBetExpertMedian of the 14 chasing the slots in Americas
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,145.6; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
SportsBetExpert: Above the median of the 14 chasing the slots on LAN wins, below on bounty offered, bounty collected and opponent network.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 22 matches Valve counted · oldest first
WWWLWWLWWLWLWWLLWWWWWL
Every match by opponent strength
Without a Roof #150 −27.1LAG #87 +8.5+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200SportsBetExpert #69Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
None of the 22 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Wildcard
Imperial
SportsBetExpert
Fluxo
Galorys
HAVU
