Outside the profile on two of seven. They match it on opponent network, LAN wins, activity, win rate and head to head.Band is the other 17 Europe sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on four of seven since the 3 August release. Down on bounty offered and bounty collected.Dashed is HEROIC's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered67Bounty collected68Opponent network70LAN wins82Activity74Win rate53Head to head59
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. HEROIC hold the 18th.
92%HEROIC hold the last Stage 1 slot, 8 points clear of HOTUChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
100 Thieves and Ninjas in Pyjamas come up into the 18, Alliance and magic fall out.
How these numbers are made
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.
// Act two
How they got here
47 matches in Valve's six-month window, 28 won, across 14 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
6 Sep
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: European Open Qualifier 2
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -15.65.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 Sep – 4 Sep
Intel Extreme Masters Beijing 2026: Global Qualifier
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
21 Jul – 25 Jul
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026: European Qualifier
Record2–2
Head to head-3.26
Still counts91%
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-10.74
Still counts90%
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -10.74.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
15 Jul – 18 Jul
Stake Ranked Episode 3
Record4–0
Head to head+42.87
Still counts86%
These results are down to 86% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 11 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 Jun – 4 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1
Record1–3
Head to head-23.73
Still counts56%
These results are down to 56% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
27 May – 28 May
Stake Ranked Episode 2
Record0–2
Head to head-11.49
Still counts52%
These results are down to 52% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -11.49.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
8 May – 12 May
PGL Astana 2026
Record1–3
Head to head-9.20
Still counts41%
These results are down to 41% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Apr – 26 Apr
CCT Season 3 Global Finals
Record2–1
Head to head+2.71
Still counts31%
These results are down to 31% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
16 Apr
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.24
Still counts24%
These results are down to 24% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.24.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
1 Apr – 3 Apr
Stake Ranked Episode 1
Record2–2
Head to head-2.47
Still counts15%
These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LBETBOOMApr 3A loss-1.80
WNinjas in PyjamasApr 3A win outside the ten best+0.10
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.47.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
28 Mar – 30 Mar
Roman Imperium Cup VII
Record4–1
Head to head-0.74
Still counts13%
These results are down to 13% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LAcendMar 30A loss-2.02
WFluxoMar 28A win outside the ten best+1.01
WSAW YoungstersMar 28A win outside the ten best+0.10
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.74.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Mar
BC.Game Masters Championship
Record0–1
Head to head-2.24
Still counts9%
These results are down to 9% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.24.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For HEROIC that is 1,376.3 plus 2.4.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,376.3
+
Head to head+2.4
=
Points1,379
The head-to-head correction is 0.2% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.515median 0.682
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.448median 0.559
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.234median 0.295
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.856median 0.851
HEROICMedian of the 23 chasing the slots in Europe
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,376.3; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
HEROIC: Above the median of the 23 chasing the slots on LAN wins, below on bounty offered, bounty collected and opponent network.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
LLLLLWLWWWWLWLWLWWWLWLWWWWWWWL
Every match by opponent strength
magic #23 +18.3Eternal Fire #67 −26.3+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200HEROIC #24Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
17 of the 47 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 18.3 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Alliance
magic
HEROIC
HOTU
100 Thieves
