Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1. M80 hold the 7th.
>99%M80 hold a Stage 1 slot, 135 points clear of WildcardChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -7.22.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
21 Jul
BLAST Bounty Summer 2026: Closed Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-11.69
Still counts88%
These results are down to 88% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -11.69.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
9 Jul – 11 Jul
BLAST Open Fall 2026: North American Qualifier
Record3–0
Head to head+6.76
Still counts81%
These results are down to 81% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
6 Jun – 8 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2
Record1–3
Head to head+8.25
Still counts59%
These results are down to 59% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 Jun – 4 Jun
Intel Extreme Masters Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1
Record3–1
Head to head+24.86
Still counts56%
These results are down to 56% of their original weight.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
26 May – 28 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: North America
Record2–0
Head to head+2.02
Still counts52%
These results are down to 52% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
WVocaMay 28A win outside the ten best+1.87
WIowa StormboarMay 26A win outside the ten best+0.15
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +2.02.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
20 May – 21 May
CS Asia Championships 2026
Record1–2
Head to head+8.68
Still counts47%
These results are down to 47% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
11 May – 12 May
Intel Extreme Masters Atlanta 2026
Record0–2
Head to head-3.03
Still counts41%
These results are down to 41% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -3.03.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 May – 3 May
Thunderpick World Championship 2026: North American Series
Record3–0
Head to head+4.62
Still counts36%
These results are down to 36% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 Apr
FRAG 20
Record2–1
Head to head-7.77
Still counts30%
These results are down to 30% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
30 Mar – 2 Apr
DraculaN Season 6
Record5–1
Head to head+11.45
Still counts15%
These results are down to 15% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Mar – 27 Mar
Journey Spring 2026
Record1–1
Head to head-2.84
Still counts11%
These results are down to 11% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LHEROIC AcademyMar 27A loss-3.16
WJohnny SpeedsMar 24A win outside the ten best+0.32
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.84.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
12 Mar
Roman Imperium Cup VI
Record2–2
Head to head-0.13
Still counts1%
These results are down to 1% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.13.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For M80 that is 1,215.3 plus 54.2.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,215.3
+
Head to head+54.2
=
Points1,270
The head-to-head correction is 4.3% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.531median 0.535
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.510median 0.517
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.157median 0.204
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.516median 0.715
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,215.3; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
M80: Below the median of the 14 chasing the slots on all four factors.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
WWLWWWLLWLLWWWWLWLWLLWWWLLLWLL
Every match by opponent strength
Natus Vincere #11 +27.3Ninjas in Pyjamas #29 −11.7+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200M80 #41Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
18 of the 42 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 27.3 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
MIBR
DENDELE
M80
paiN
NRG
MOUZ
