Outside the profile on three of seven. They match it on opponent network, activity, win rate and head to head.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on three of seven since the 3 August release. Down on win rate and head to head.Dashed is Ground Zero's own profile on 3 Aug · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered37Bounty collected27Opponent network34LAN wins53Activity86Win rate55Head to head46
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among the rosters Valve ranks
Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1. Ground Zero are 7th, 2 places outside.
<1%Ground Zero are 7th, 2 places outside the 5, 195 points behind DEPOChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Ground ZeroComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
How these numbers are made
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
// Act two
How they got here
55 matches in Valve's six-month window, 33 won, across 14 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Among their most valuable. It holds 8 of the thirty slots that count, level with 1 other event.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
17 Jul – 18 Jul
HyperX & Intel Nationals 2026
Record4–3
Head to head+16.21
Still counts86%
These results are down to 86% of their original weight.
7 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Among their most valuable. It holds 8 of the thirty slots that count, level with 1 other event.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
10 Jul
GGMedia Challenger Series Season 1
Record0–1
Head to head-2.54
Still counts80%
These results are down to 80% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -2.54.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
10 Jun – 18 Jun
DFRAG Open Series 5
Record4–1
Head to head-1.15
Still counts66%
These results are down to 66% of their original weight.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
25 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Asia-Pacific
Record0–1
Head to head-11.44
Still counts50%
These results are down to 50% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -11.44.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
11 May – 12 May
Asian Champions League 2026
Record1–2
Head to head-7.07
Still counts42%
These results are down to 42% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
27 Apr – 3 May
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Oceania - Cup 4
Record3–2
Head to head-3.42
Still counts35%
These results are down to 35% of their original weight.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
2 Apr – 9 Apr
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Oceania - Cup 3
Record4–0
Head to head+4.95
Still counts19%
These results are down to 19% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +4.95.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
1 Apr
PGL Astana 2026: Asian Qualifier
Record0–1
Head to head-0.75
Still counts14%
These results are down to 14% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.75.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
31 Mar – 1 Apr
PGL Astana 2026: Oceanic Qualifier
Record3–0
Head to head+1.96
Still counts14%
These results are down to 14% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +1.96.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
23 Mar – 26 Mar
ESL Challenger League Season 51: Oceania - Cup 2
Record1–2
Head to head-4.17
Still counts10%
These results are down to 10% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -4.17.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
15 Mar – 16 Mar
ANZC Locals Autumn 2026
Record2–3
Head to head-1.56
Still counts3%
These results are down to 3% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
5 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
11 Mar – 14 Mar
Dfrag Season 1: Wildcard LAN
Record3–3
Head to head-0.53
Still counts2%
These results are down to 2% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Ground Zero that is 926.0 minus 6.7.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value926.0
+
Head to head−6.7
=
Points919
The head-to-head correction is 0.7% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.349median 0.361
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.258median 0.316
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.061median 0.080
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.438median 0.577
Ground ZeroMedian of the 10 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Ground Zero: Below the median of the 10 chasing the slots on all four factors.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
WLLWLLWWWWLLWLWLWWLWWWLWWWWLWL
Every match by opponent strength
Abyssal #197 −24.1THUNDER dOWNUNDER #77 +17.5+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200Ground Zero #104Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
1 of the 55 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 1.3 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
DEPO
THUNDER dOWNUNDER
Ground Zero
5star
NEXVOID
