Europe has 18 slots: the top 6 go straight to Stage 3; 7th to 12th enter at Stage 2; 13th to 18th start in Stage 1. Inner Circle hold the 11th.
58%Inner Circle hold a Stage 2 slot, 131 points clear of HOTUChance of the Major: our simulation to the 2 Nov cut · standing and points: Valve's, 7 Sep 2026
Inner CircleComes up across the cutFalls outThe cut
100 Thieves and Ninjas in Pyjamas come up into the 18, Alliance and magic fall out.
How these numbers are made
Today is Valve's Regional Standings. At the cut is our simulation: the clubs in the order of their median place, with the range the middle 80% of runs fall in.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Their calendar to the cut
Events they are known to play
No event before the cut where they are known to play.
Our model also expects them at 1 more event before the cut.
// Act two
How they got here
45 matches in Valve's six-month window, 28 won, across 11 events. Every figure below is Valve's own, taken from the published standings.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
9 Jul – 11 Jul
RES Showdown Europe Fall 2026
Record3–0
Head to head+18.45
Still counts81%
These results are down to 81% of their original weight.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
23 Jun – 28 Jun
Super DraculaN Season 1
Record6–1
Head to head+9.17
Still counts73%
These results are down to 73% of their original weight.
7 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Their most valuable event. It holds 13 of the thirty slots that count, more than any other.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
18 Jun – 20 Jun
Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier
Record1–1
Head to head-17.84
Still counts67%
These results are down to 67% of their original weight.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LBBLJun 20A loss-18.46
WSpirit AcademyJun 18A win outside the ten best+0.62
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -17.84.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
21 May – 24 May
BC.Game Masters Championship 2
Record6–4
Head to head-39.39
Still counts49%
These results are down to 49% of their original weight.
10 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
21 May
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+0.03
Still counts47%
These results are down to 47% of their original weight.
1 match
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by +0.03.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
4 Apr – 7 Apr
PGL Bucharest 2026
Record1–3
Head to head-1.25
Still counts18%
These results are down to 18% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
4 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
29 Mar – 31 Mar
DraculaN Season 6
Record3–3
Head to head-8.30
Still counts13%
These results are down to 13% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
6 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
LAllianceMar 31A loss-2.74
WBASEMENT BOYSMar 30A win outside the ten best+0.26
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -8.30.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
24 Mar – 25 Mar
BC.Game Masters Championship
Record2–1
Head to head-1.50
Still counts9%
These results are down to 9% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
3 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.50.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
17 Mar – 19 Mar
CCT Season 3 European Series 18
Record1–1
Head to head-0.83
Still counts5%
These results are down to 5% of their original weight: almost out of the window.
2 matches
A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.
Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.83.
Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. All thirty slots are full, so a new result counts only by pushing an older one out. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.
How these numbers are made
Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 7 September 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three
What the rating is made of
Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For Inner Circle that is 1,537.7 minus 36.1.
The two parts
Valve's · release 7 Sep 2026
Starting value1,537.7
+
Head to head−36.1
=
Points1,502
The head-to-head correction is 2.4% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.
The four factors
Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved.0.572median 0.682
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved.0.533median 0.559
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten.0.361median 0.295
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field.0.925median 0.851
Inner CircleMedian of the 23 chasing the slots in Europe
0.841 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
Valve ranked 401 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
Valve's file prints 1,537.7; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.
Inner Circle: Above the median of the 23 chasing the slots on opponent network and LAN wins, below on bounty offered and bounty collected.
Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →
The last 30 matches Valve counted · oldest first
WWLWLWLWWWLWLWLWWWWWWWWWWWLWLL
Every match by opponent strength
Vitality #5 +27.1HOTU #25 −20.2+30+150−15−30#1#5#10#20#50#100#200Inner Circle #14Stronger opponentWeaker opponent
12 of the 45 matches were against sides in the world's top 30, and the largest change in any of them was 27.1 points.
How these numbers are made
Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
Aurora
B8
Inner Circle
BETBOOM
BIG
