// Event · Tier C

Fiesta Series 3: Closed Qualifier

19 Oct – 24 Oct 2026 Online 17 teams 9 days before the cut

Race impact ?

Little effect on the race

Why it matters

Facts beside our number

Valve's event weight

0.14

From its prize pool, $0, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.

Teams in the race known to attend

Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.

Timing

9 days before the cut

TodayCut · 2 Nov

Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

0 teams in the race known to attend

No team in the race is expected here.

TeamTodayWhen it pays off

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

—

too few runs

Semi-final

—

too few runs

Final

—

too few runs

Win it

—

too few runs

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

—

too few runs

Semi-final

—

too few runs

Final

—

too few runs

Win it

—

too few runs

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

—

too few runs

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

—

too few runs

Semi-final

—

too few runs

Final

—

too few runs

Win it

—

too few runs

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

—

too few runs

Semi-final

—

too few runs

Final

—

too few runs

Win it

—

too few runs

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

—

too few runs

First match: vs Revise, 23 Oct

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

First match: vs ROUNDS, 23 Oct

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

—

too few runs

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

First match: vs eSuba, 23 Oct

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

First match: vs XI, 23 Oct

Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.

Out before the quarter-finals

<1%

0 points

Quarter-final

<1%

0 points

Semi-final

<1%

0 points

Final

<1%

0 points

Win it

<1%

0 points

First match: vs NOCTIS, 23 Oct

The field

17 known · in the race · strongest first, by our Elo

1 CPH WolvesEU · Elo 1,434

2 XIEU #202 · Elo 1,407

3 KAMUIEU #138 · Elo 1,404

4 eSubaEU #186 · Elo 1,390

5 WingmanEU #208 · Elo 1,388

6 eternal premiumEU #190 · Elo 1,381

7 TTG EsportsOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,372

8 Dark MoonEU #157 · Elo 1,357

9 MAYBEEU #132 · Elo 1,355

10 NOCTISOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,347

11 Trainwrecks eSportsOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,330

12 ReviseEU #168 · Elo 1,306

13 ROUNDSEU #203 · Elo 1,289

14 DNKEU #191 · Elo 1,287

15 A Great ChaosEU #201 · Elo 1,252

16 RcaveOutside the top 40 · Elo 1,246

17 DucksOutside the top 40

CPH Wolves

Europe · no Valve standing yet

Elo 1,434 · 163rd

Europe #202

Elo 1,407 · 200th

KAMUI

Europe #138

Elo 1,404 · 202nd

eSuba

Europe #186

Elo 1,390 · 222nd

Wingman

Europe #208

Elo 1,388 · 228th

eternal premium

Europe #190

Elo 1,381 · 237th

TTG Esports

Outside the top 40

Elo 1,372 · 249th

Dark Moon

Europe #157

Elo 1,357 · 281st

MAYBE

Europe #132

Elo 1,355 · 291st

NOCTIS

Outside the top 40

Elo 1,347 · 313th

Trainwrecks eSports

Outside the top 40

Elo 1,330 · 420th

Revise

Europe #168

Elo 1,306 · 496th

ROUNDS

Europe #203

Elo 1,289 · 512th

DNK

Europe #191

Elo 1,287 · 517th

A Great Chaos

Europe #201

Elo 1,252 · 546th

Rcave

Outside the top 40

Elo 1,246 · 550th

Ducks

Outside the top 40

No Elo yet

How these numbers are made

Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 23 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.