← Race to the Major

EMPIRE

Americas #40
2 stage 31 stage 26 stage 1
ayaneuu · BAGEL · C0C0 · Walco
Outside the profile on six of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected, opponent network, LAN wins and activity, above it on head to head.Band is the other 9 Americas sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Up on three of seven since the 5 October release. Down on win rate.Dashed is EMPIRE's own profile on 5 Oct · same scale
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered16 Bounty collected11 Opponent network15 LAN wins7 Activity14 Win rate40 Head to head82
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
40th
Not qualified
Americas on Valve's invitation standings, 2 Nov
Americas standing
40th
  1. 38ALKA
  2. 39RED Canids Academy
  3. 40EMPIRE
  4. 41MIBR fe
  5. 42MEIA NOITE
31 places outside the Major
VRS points
688
World #213 · 703 behind Wildcard
Since April
52nd to 40th
Valve's standings
Not qualified

Not qualified: 40th in the Americas on Valve's invitation standings of 2 Nov, 31 places outside.

// Act one

The verdict

Americas has 9 slots: the top 2 go straight to Stage 3; 3rd place enters at Stage 2; 4th to 9th start in Stage 1.

What we said

Our forecast before the cut

Our last forecast before the cut, on 1 Nov, gave them <1% for the Major.

How these numbers are made
  • Who goes to the Major is Valve's: its invitation standings of 2 Nov 2026, the slots taken down each region's standing, a roster no longer intact skipped.
  • What we said is our last forecast made before the cut, as it stood that day, whether it was right or not.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act two

How they got here

13 matches in Valve's six-month window, 7 won, across 5 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

18 Oct
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record2–1
Head to head+26.30
Still counts100%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L LAGOct 18A loss -4.00
W KODEXOct 18Bounty collected #4Opponent network #6LAN wins #1 +11.11
W Iowa StormboarOct 18Bounty collected #1Opponent network #2LAN wins #2 +19.19
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

It holds 6 of the 21 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 21 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

7 Oct – 10 Oct
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 3
The event's page →
Record0–2
Head to head-23.30
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L regainOct 10A loss -10.54
L DETONATEOct 7A loss -12.76
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -23.30.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 21 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Oct
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–0
Head to head+20.75
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

W Desi BoyzOct 9Bounty collected #2Opponent network #1LAN wins #3 +20.75
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the 21 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 21 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

4 Sep
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026: North American Open Qualifier 1
Record1–1
Head to head+2.24
Still counts81%

These results are down to 81% of their original weight.

2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Without a RoofSep 4A loss -3.41
W Unreal NightmareSep 4Bounty collected #5Opponent network #4LAN wins #4 +5.65
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

It holds 3 of the 21 slots that count.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 21 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

25 Aug – 29 Aug
ESL Challenger League Season 52: North America - Cup 1
Record3–2
Head to head+14.23
Still counts77%

These results are down to 77% of their original weight.

5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Overtake SectorAug 29A loss -9.20
W Iowa StormboarAug 28Bounty collected #6Opponent network #5LAN wins #5 +11.87
W New LegendsAug 27Bounty collected #7Opponent network #7LAN wins #6 +7.36
L Chicken CoopAug 26A loss -7.80
W ZomblersAug 25Bounty collected #3Opponent network #3LAN wins #7 +12.00
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected3 / 10 Opponent network3 / 10 LAN wins3 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 9 of the 21 slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 21 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 2 November 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For EMPIRE that is 648.0 plus 40.2.

The two parts

Valve's · release 2 Nov 2026
Starting value648.0
+
Head to head+40.2
=
Points688

The head-to-head correction is 5.8% of the total.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.276median 0.547
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.226median 0.496
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.028median 0.239
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.000median 0.949
EMPIREMedian of the 15 chasing the slots in Americas
The four factors0.276 + 0.226 + 0.028 + 0.000
Their average÷ 4 = 0.133
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.133 ÷ 0.854 × 1,600 = 648.2
  • 0.854 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 376 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 648.0; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

EMPIRE: Below the median of the 15 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,368
Rank by our Elo264 of 544
Valve's world standing213

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 13 matches Valve counted · oldest first
W L W W L W L L W L W W L
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 13 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.