← Race to the Major

KZG

Asia-Pacific #22
0 stage 31 stage 24 stage 1
Estate · Hassie · Kras · Mingovi · Samuukxs
Outside the profile on six of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected, opponent network, LAN wins, activity and win rate.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered11 Bounty collected9 Opponent network4 LAN wins29 Activity1 Win rate8 Head to head65
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
22nd
Not qualified
Asia-Pacific on Valve's invitation standings, 2 Nov
Asia-Pacific standing
22nd
  1. 20Just Swing
  2. 21Vitalem Aerem
  3. 22KZG
  4. 23Mindfreak
  5. 24Morningstar
17 places outside the Major
VRS points
736
World #187 · 531 behind Lynn Vision
Not qualified

Not qualified: 22nd in Asia-Pacific on Valve's invitation standings of 2 Nov, 17 places outside.

// Act one

The verdict

Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1.

What we said

Our forecast before the cut

Our last forecast before the cut, on 1 Nov, gave them <1% for the Major.

How these numbers are made
  • Who goes to the Major is Valve's: its invitation standings of 2 Nov 2026, the slots taken down each region's standing, a roster no longer intact skipped.
  • What we said is our last forecast made before the cut, as it stood that day, whether it was right or not.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act two

How they got here

5 matches in Valve's six-month window, 2 won, across 1 event, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

9 Oct – 10 Oct
ANZC Locals Spring 2026
The event's page →
Record2–3
Head to head+17.09
Still counts100%
5 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L AbyssalOct 10A loss -6.70
L FlyQuestOct 10A loss -1.49
W BGNS OrangeOct 10Bounty collected #2Opponent network #2LAN wins #1 +8.01
W Off ChopsOct 9Bounty collected #1Opponent network #1LAN wins #2 +23.60
L Ground ZeroOct 9A loss -6.33
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected2 / 10 Opponent network2 / 10 LAN wins2 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 6 of the 6 slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 6 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 2 November 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For KZG that is 718.4 plus 17.1.

The two parts

Valve's · release 2 Nov 2026
Starting value718.4
+
Head to head+17.1
=
Points736

The head-to-head correction is 2.3% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.257median 0.432
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.217median 0.379
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.006median 0.153
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.200median 0.677
KZGMedian of the 11 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
The four factors0.257 + 0.217 + 0.006 + 0.200
Their average÷ 4 = 0.170
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.170 ÷ 0.854 × 1,600 = 718.5
  • 0.854 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 376 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 718.4; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

KZG: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating
Our Elo, per map1,330
Rank by our Elo403 of 544
Valve's world standing187

Our Elo answers who wins a match not yet played; Valve's standing measures results weighted by prize money. How our Elo is scored →

The last 5 matches Valve counted · oldest first
L W W L L
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 5 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.