← Race to the Major

the ONE

Asia-Pacific #40
0 stage 31 stage 24 stage 1
dobo · FELSADIA · grizzly · Kamui · Wexde
Outside the profile on six of seven. Below it on bounty offered, bounty collected, opponent network, LAN wins, activity and win rate.Band is the other 5 Asia-Pacific sides holding a Major slot · dashed is their median
Profile · against the clubs holding a Major slot
Bounty offered4 Bounty collected1 Opponent network1 LAN wins21 Activity8 Win rate0 Head to head38
Valve's factorsOurs: activity, win rate, head to headPercentile among each region's top 40
40th
Not qualified
Asia-Pacific on Valve's invitation standings, 2 Nov
Asia-Pacific standing
40th
  1. 38LFO 9
  2. 39BGNS Orange
  3. 40the ONE
  4. 41madlikewizards
  5. 42WXM
35 places outside the Major
VRS points
530
World #318 · 737 behind Lynn Vision
Not qualified

Not qualified: 40th in Asia-Pacific on Valve's invitation standings of 2 Nov; with rosters no longer intact skipped, 33 places outside.

// Act one

The verdict

Asia-Pacific has 5 slots: 1st place enters at Stage 2; 2nd to 5th start in Stage 1.

What we said

Our forecast before the cut

We made no forecast for them before the cut.

How these numbers are made
  • Who goes to the Major is Valve's: its invitation standings of 2 Nov 2026, the slots taken down each region's standing, a roster no longer intact skipped.
  • What we said is our last forecast made before the cut, as it stood that day, whether it was right or not.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act two

How they got here

8 matches in Valve's six-month window, 1 won, across 4 events, every figure Valve's own, from the published standings.

27 Oct
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–2
Head to head-1.15
Still counts100%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L 5starOct 27A loss -0.70
L Chinggis WarriorsOct 27A loss -0.45
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -1.15.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 3 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

9 Oct
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–1
Head to head-0.42
Still counts100%
1 match

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L Chinggis WarriorsOct 9A loss -0.42
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -0.42.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 3 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

30 Sep – 2 Oct
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record1–2
Head to head+7.36
Still counts99%
3 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L NEXVOIDOct 2A loss -0.58
W BRONUUDOct 1Bounty collected #1Opponent network #1LAN wins #1 +9.70
L The HunsSep 30A loss -1.76
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected1 / 10 Opponent network1 / 10 LAN wins1 / 10

Their most valuable event. It holds 3 of the 3 slots that count, more than any other.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 3 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

22 Sep – 23 Sep
Not linked to an event
Valve counted these matches, but we have not linked them to an event: bo3, where our calendar comes from, holds none for them, or holds it under another name.
Record0–2
Head to head-24.39
Still counts93%
2 matches

A lit factor means the win holds one of its ten counting slots there; #1 is their most valuable result in that factor.

L bLight blueSep 23A loss -17.22
L Just SwingSep 22A loss -7.17
Was it worth going?
Bounty collected0 / 10 Opponent network0 / 10 LAN wins0 / 10

Nothing here counts toward the factors. No result from this event is among the ten best in bounty collected, opponent network or LAN wins. It moved head to head by -24.39.

Valve counts only the ten best wins in each of these three factors. 3 of the thirty slots are filled. A loss takes no slot: it moves only head to head.

How these numbers are made
  • Matches, head-to-head changes, age weights and counting slots are Valve's, from its Regional Standings of 2 November 2026. Which event a match belongs to is our join to bo3's calendar.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.
// Act three

What the rating is made of

Valve's model averages four factors into a starting value, then adjusts it for head-to-head results. For the ONE that is 548.8 minus 18.6.

The two parts

Valve's · release 2 Nov 2026
Starting value548.8
+
Head to head−18.6
=
Points530

The head-to-head correction is 3.5% of the total. Almost everything about where they sit comes from the four factors, not from whom they have beaten.

The four factors

Valve's · each runs from 0 to 1
Bounty offeredTheir own prize money, their ten best events, aged. Divided by the fifth-highest in the field, capped at 1, then curved. 0.219median 0.432
Bounty collectedThe bounty of the sides they beat, their ten best wins. Divided by ten, then curved. 0.000median 0.379
Opponent networkHow many sides their opponents had beaten, their ten best wins. Divided by ten. 0.000median 0.153
LAN winsWins at LAN events, their ten best, aged. Divided by ten, then by the fifth-highest in the field. 0.099median 0.677
the ONEMedian of the 11 chasing the slots in Asia-Pacific
The four factors0.219 + 0.000 + 0.000 + 0.099
Their average÷ 4 = 0.080
Stretched onto 400–2,000400 + 0.080 ÷ 0.854 × 1,600 = 548.9
  • 0.854 is the highest average of any roster Valve loaded and 0.000 the lowest, both printed in Valve's file. If the top pulls away, everyone below falls without playing worse.
  • Valve ranked 376 rosters in this release: every lineup with a win and at least five matches in the six-month window.
  • Head to head is added last: a Glicko adjustment, match by match in date order.
  • Valve's file prints 548.8; the factors here are rounded to three decimals.

the ONE: Below the median of the 11 chasing the slots on all four factors.

How good are they

Ours · not part of Valve's rating

We have no Elo for the ONE: it ranks clubs with a match in the last 90 days.

The last 8 matches Valve counted · oldest first
L L L W L L L L
Every match by opponent strength

None of the 8 matches was against a side in the world's top 30.

How these numbers are made
  • Valve prints the points rounded to a whole number.
  • In the scatter both axes are Valve's: across, the opponent's world standing (unranked at the far right); up, Valve's head-to-head change for the match.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.