Elisa BreakOut Series 2
As our forecast of 14 October saw it, before the event started.
Why it matters
VocaRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they lose the final: 7%. From the title it pays: 18%. Never past 50% here: 18% at best, with the title. 1% to 18% here.
In our runs Voca are above the 11% they hold today only with the title. In the runs where they go out in the quarter-finals, their chance is 9 points below today's.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
The field
VocaAM #15 · Elo 1,602
PhantomEU #53 · Elo 1,530
WBTEU #45 · Elo 1,450
EACEU #75 · Elo 1,449
ENCEEU #76 · Elo 1,446
HAVUEU #90 · Elo 1,408
ROUNDSEU #203 · Elo 1,301
BOJONGEU #237 · Elo 1,300
What it moved
VocaAmericas · bottom half
11% → 1%
-9 points
How it finished
Winners and losers
Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.
Phantom
5–0Winner
<1% → <1%unchanged
HAVU
3–2Final
<1% → <1%unchanged
ENCE
2–2Semi-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
WBT
3–1Semi-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
BOJONG
0–3Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
ROUNDS
0–3Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
EAC
1–2Quarter-final
<1% → <1%unchanged
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 14 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- What it moved is each team in the race's chance given the half of the field it finished in, against its chance before, summed. Race impact was what that sum was expected to be.
- Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 14 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
- Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 17 October, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.