// Event · Tier C

Fiesta Series 3

25 Oct – 6 Nov 2026 Online $20,000 prize pool Finished

Winner

QUAZAR

4–0 · Europe #65

As our forecast of 24 October saw it, before the event started.

It ends after the cut on 2 November, so it cannot change who goes to the Major: its race impact is 0.

Why it matters

Facts beside our number

Valve's event weight

0.37

From its prize pool, $20,000, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.

Teams in the race known to attend

Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.

Timing

After the cut

TodayCut · 2 Nov

After the cut on 2 November: nothing here counts for this Major.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

0 teams in the race known to attend

No team in the race is expected here.

The field

0 known · in the race · 1 from qualifiers · strongest first, by our Elo

QFiesta Series 3: Closed QualifierQualifier · from 19 Oct

Fiesta Series 3: Closed Qualifier

Qualifier · from 19 Oct

How it finished

Results from bo3

Winner

QUAZAR

4–0Europe #65

Final

Honvéd

6–1Europe #125

Semi-final

BRUTE

2–1Europe #55

Semi-final

Revise

5–2Europe #168

Winners and losers

Our reckoning, until Valve's release

Valve's points come with its first release after the event. Until then, our reckoning of what this event alone did to each team's points.

QUAZAR won the tournament, but Revise gained more from it: 194 points against 61. What counts is whom you beat and what it replaced in your ten best.

Revise 5–2Semi-final +194 —

Honvéd 6–1Final +130 —

Dark Moon 4–2Quarter-final +85 —

Wingman 2–3Out before the quarter-finals +62 —

QUAZAR 4–0Winner +61 —

Just Players 3–1Out before the quarter-finals +26 —

Lilmix 3–3Out before the quarter-finals +21 —

DNK 3–3Out before the quarter-finals +19 —

INOX Division 1–1Quarter-final +10 —

BRUTE 2–1Semi-final +3 —

Azuolas 2–3Out before the quarter-finals +3 —

GenOne 1–1Quarter-final -2 —

PRIVATE 0–1Out before the quarter-finals -4 —

ex-NEW VISION 0–3Out before the quarter-finals -14 —

FOKUS 1–1Quarter-final -17 —

SINQU 1–3Out before the quarter-finals -18 —

BERG 1–3Out before the quarter-finals -20 —

Fortress 0–3Out before the quarter-finals -25 —

ex-Zero Tenacity 0–1Out before the quarter-finals -26 —

9INE 0–1Out before the quarter-finals -26 —

Walczaki 1–3Out before the quarter-finals -31 —

Saint Sinners 2–3Out before the quarter-finals -32 —

Johnny Speeds 3–3Out before the quarter-finals -35 —

Nexus 3–2Out before the quarter-finals -36 —

How these numbers are made

Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 24 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
Chance of the Major beside each team: from our forecast of 24 October, given they came, against given the finish they had.
Points are our reckoning until Valve's next release: every team's points on 6 November, worked out with the event and without it. The difference is the event's alone. Every match counts as Ranked; Valve may not count them all.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.