Circuito Retake Season 13
Why it matters
TYLOO
JiJieHaoRace impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.
Who it matters to
Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.
In our runs where they go out before the quarter-finals: 74%. From a quarter-final it pays: 94%, up to 96% with the title. 74% to 96% here.
In our runs TYLOO are above the 91% they hold today only with a quarter-final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 17 points below today's.
In our runs where they go out in the semi-finals: 1%. From a final it pays: 10%, up to 54% with the title; past 50% with the title. <1% to 54% here.
In our runs JiJieHao are above the 5% they hold today only with a final or better. In the runs where they go out before the quarter-finals, their chance is 5 points below today's.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Over 99% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. >99% to >99% here.
Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Teletubisie, 30 Oct Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
ZOTIX, 29 Oct Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
SNITKO, 30 Oct Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
BC.Game, 30 Oct Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
WBT Academy, 29 Oct Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
BASEMENT BOYS, 30 Oct Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
SAW Youngsters, 29 Oct Under 1% for the Major in our runs, whatever their finish here. <1% to <1% here.
Iberian Soul, 29 Oct The field
Natus VincereEU #28 · Elo 1,784
2
In the race, 91% for the Major: TYLOOAP #1 · Elo 1,656
3
In the race, 5% for the Major: JiJieHaoEU #24 · Elo 1,632
Iberian SoulEU #44 · Elo 1,600
BC.GameAP #3 · Elo 1,600
MetizportEU #41 · Elo 1,576
OGEU #78 · Elo 1,506
BASEMENT BOYSEU #74 · Elo 1,487
WBT AcademyEU #96 · Elo 1,473
TeletubisieEU #177 · Elo 1,465
SAW YoungstersEU #110 · Elo 1,423
ZOTIXEU #200 · Elo 1,332
SNITKOOutside the top 40
How these numbers are made
- Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 28 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
- Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
- Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
- The other 3 seats are filled in each run from who usually plays where; no team is named there.
- The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.