// Pick'em · IEM Cologne Major 2026

Stage 2 Pick'em

Stage 2 is over. The table is our forecast from before the first match, next to where each team finished.

Worked out afterwards, as the backtest was: on our Elo from the day before the stage and nothing after it. It was not published at the time.

Forecast and result

Chances are from before the first match. The last column is where each team finished.

Seed#	Team	3–02 slots	3–1 or 3–23–1 3–26 slots	2–3 or 1–32–3 1–3no slot	0–32 slots	Finished
1						3–0
Opens against B8 (seed 9) in a best of one and wins it in 54% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 17% 23% 21% 18% 14% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 54% FlyQuest 32%, BIG 32% At 2–0, best of three 34% Legacy 13%, 9z 13% At 0–1 46% FlyQuest 68%, BIG 17% At 0–2, best of three 16% MIBR 13%, M80 12%
2						3–0
Opens against BetBoom (seed 10) in a best of one and wins it in 70% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 43% 33% 16% 4% 3% 1% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 70% BIG 22%, TYLOO 21% At 2–0, best of three 54% Legacy 13%, 9z 12% At 0–1 30% FlyQuest 37%, BIG 26% At 0–2, best of three 6% FlyQuest 11%, M80 11%
3						1–3
Opens against GamerLegion (seed 11) in a best of one and wins it in 48% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 13% 23% 22% 18% 16% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 48% TYLOO 16%, MIBR 13% At 2–0, best of three 27% Spirit 16%, Legacy 13% At 0–1 52% FlyQuest 26%, BIG 24% At 0–2, best of three 20% FlyQuest 16%, M80 11%
4						3–1
Opens against M80 (seed 12) in a best of one and wins it in 60% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 16% 23% 22% 18% 14% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 60% GamerLegion 16%, 9z 13% At 2–0, best of three 32% Spirit 16%, Legacy 10% At 0–1 40% BIG 19%, MIBR 19% At 0–2, best of three 17% FlyQuest 18%
5						3–2
Opens against MIBR (seed 13) in a best of one and wins it in 64% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 23% 29% 23% 12% 9% 4% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 64% paiN 17%, GamerLegion 13% At 2–0, best of three 39% Spirit 17%, FUT 12% At 0–1 36% M80 18%, TYLOO 16% At 0–2, best of three 13% FlyQuest 18%
6						2–3
Opens against TYLOO (seed 14) in a best of one and wins it in 52% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 9% 16% 17% 23% 22% 13% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 52% Legacy 21%, Monte 19% At 2–0, best of three 23% Spirit 19%, FUT 13% At 0–1 48% MIBR 20%, M80 14% At 0–2, best of three 25% FlyQuest 16%
7						3–2
Opens against BIG (seed 15) in a best of one and wins it in 54% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 9% 16% 18% 23% 22% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 54% 9z 20%, paiN 18% At 2–0, best of three 24% Spirit 18%, FUT 14% At 0–1 46% MIBR 14%, M80 13% At 0–2, best of three 24% FlyQuest 14%, MIBR 10%
8						3–1
Opens against FlyQuest (seed 16) in a best of one and wins it in 68% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 15% 22% 21% 19% 16% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 68% Monte 16%, B8 13% At 2–0, best of three 33% Spirit 19%, FUT 13% At 0–1 32% B8 16%, Monte 14% At 0–2, best of three 15% No single likely opponent
9						3–2
Opens against FUT (seed 1) in a best of one and wins it in 46% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 9% 17% 20% 21% 21% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 46% 9z 20%, Legacy 13% At 2–0, best of three 21% Spirit 16%, Legacy 12% At 0–1 54% BetBoom 20%, MIBR 13% At 0–2, best of three 27% FlyQuest 19%, BIG 11%
10						3–1
Opens against Spirit (seed 2) in a best of one and wins it in 30% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 9% 20% 24% 17% 18% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 30% B8 14%, Legacy 13% At 2–0, best of three 16% Legacy 11%, 9z 10% At 0–1 70% GamerLegion 17%, B8 16% At 0–2, best of three 32% FlyQuest 20%, BIG 11%
11						0–3
Opens against Astralis (seed 3) in a best of one and wins it in 52% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 13% 23% 24% 17% 15% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 52% G2 19%, Legacy 15% At 2–0, best of three 26% Spirit 16%, FUT 11% At 0–1 48% BetBoom 24%, M80 21% At 0–2, best of three 21% FlyQuest 17%, BIG 12%
12						1–3
Opens against G2 (seed 4) in a best of one and wins it in 40% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 12% 16% 23% 25% 19% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 40% Legacy 19%, Spirit 17% At 2–0, best of three 15% Spirit 18%, FUT 12% At 0–1 60% GamerLegion 17%, BetBoom 12% At 0–2, best of three 35% FlyQuest 16%, BIG 11%
13						1–3
Opens against Legacy (seed 5) in a best of one and wins it in 36% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 14% 18% 21% 24% 17% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 36% Spirit 22%, G2 18% At 2–0, best of three 15% Spirit 16%, FUT 11% At 0–1 64% paiN 15%, Astralis 12% At 0–2, best of three 35% FlyQuest 15%, BIG 11%
14						2–3
Opens against paiN (seed 6) in a best of one and wins it in 48% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 13% 16% 23% 25% 17% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 48% Spirit 30%, FUT 20% At 2–0, best of three 17% Spirit 15%, Legacy 12% At 0–1 52% Astralis 18%, G2 14% At 0–2, best of three 32% BIG 12%, MIBR 11%
15						2–3
Opens against Monte (seed 7) in a best of one and wins it in 46% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 11% 15% 23% 26% 20% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 46% FUT 37%, Spirit 34% At 2–0, best of three 16% Spirit 15%, Legacy 12% At 0–1 54% Astralis 23%, Spirit 15% At 0–2, best of three 34% M80 12%, MIBR 12%
16						0–3
Opens against 9z (seed 8) in a best of one and wins it in 32% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 2% 5% 7% 20% 31% 35% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 32% FUT 55%, Spirit 32% At 2–0, best of three 8% Spirit 16%, Legacy 13% At 0–1 68% FUT 46%, Astralis 20% At 0–2, best of three 49% BetBoom 13%, M80 12%

In our setEach slot has its own colour, and its strength is the chance. It steps up at 50%. Each row sums to 100.

How the sets did

5 of 10

for our set, which completes the stage. Before the first match it had a 33% chance of 5 or more.

Picking by seed

7 of 10

3–02 of 2

Spirit Hit

Legacy Miss

3–1 or 3–26 of 6

FUT Miss

Astralis Miss

G2 Hit

9z Hit

BetBoom Hit

GamerLegion Miss

0–32 of 2

BIG Miss

FlyQuest Hit

One stage is one draw, so a single result says little about the model. How our chances held up over the nine stages of the last three Majors is in the method.

How these numbers are made

Ours: every chance on this page, from 200,000 simulated runs of the stage on our per-map Elo rating. Forecast of 5 Jun 2026, model v1.5.
Valve's: the seeding, taken from the Regional Standings of 4 May 2026.
Pairings follow Valve's Major rulebook: round 1 is seed 1 against 9 and so on, later rounds pair within the same record by Difficulty Score and seed without rematches, and matches that can advance or eliminate a team are best of three.
The model's opinion: on the nine Swiss stages of Austin 2025, Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026 the model was ahead of picking by seed, but not by more than chance can explain, so these numbers are not shown to beat seeding.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.