// Pick'em · IEM Cologne Major 2026

Stage 3 Pick'em

Stage 3 is over. The table is our forecast from before the first match, next to where each team finished.

Worked out afterwards, as the backtest was: on our Elo from the day before the stage and nothing after it. It was not published at the time.

Forecast and result

Chances are from before the first match. The last column is where each team finished.

Seed#	Team	3–02 slots	3–1 or 3–23–1 3–26 slots	2–3 or 1–32–3 1–3no slot	0–32 slots	Finished
1						3–1
Opens against FUT (seed 9) in a best of three and wins it in 82% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 53% 30% 12% 3% 1% 1% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 82% Legacy 43%, B8 22% At 2–0, best of three 68% Spirit 13%, MOUZ 13% At 0–1 18% Legacy 57%, B8 27% At 0–2, best of three 3% B8 14%, Monte 14%
2						2–3
Opens against Spirit (seed 10) in a best of three and wins it in 38% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 17% 30% 26% 13% 9% 5% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 38% 9z 23%, Monte 21% At 2–0, best of three 27% Falcons 19%, MOUZ 12% At 0–1 62% Legacy 47%, B8 28% At 0–2, best of three 18% Monte 14%, B8 12%
3						3–1
Opens against G2 (seed 11) in a best of three and wins it in 70% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 27% 32% 22% 11% 6% 2% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 70% 9z 22%, Monte 16% At 2–0, best of three 48% Spirit 17%, Vitality 16% At 0–1 30% B8 28%, Monte 20% At 0–2, best of three 8% PARIVISION 13%, Legacy 11%
4						2–3
Opens against BetBoom (seed 12) in a best of three and wins it in 47% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 7% 16% 19% 24% 21% 13% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 47% Spirit 17%, 9z 17% At 2–0, best of three 22% Vitality 21%, Falcons 15% At 0–1 53% B8 23%, Monte 20% At 0–2, best of three 25% Legacy 14%, B8 12%
5						0–3
Opens against 9z (seed 13) in a best of three and wins it in 40% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 3% 8% 12% 24% 30% 23% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 40% Aurora 20%, BetBoom 15% At 2–0, best of three 14% Vitality 23%, Falcons 15% At 0–1 60% Monte 18%, G2 16% At 0–2, best of three 36% Legacy 13%, B8 13%
6						3–1
Opens against Monte (seed 14) in a best of three and wins it in 55% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 13% 17% 25% 24% 15% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 55% FURIA 22%, PARIVISION 14% At 2–0, best of three 23% Vitality 24%, Falcons 15% At 0–1 45% G2 16%, FUT 13% At 0–2, best of three 25% FUT 12%, B8 11%
7						3–0
Opens against B8 (seed 15) in a best of three and wins it in 62% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 10% 19% 21% 23% 18% 9% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 62% Aurora 20%, MOUZ 18% At 2–0, best of three 29% Vitality 26%, Falcons 15% At 0–1 38% FUT 15%, MOUZ 14% At 0–2, best of three 19% FUT 12%, G2 11%
8						1–3
Opens against Legacy (seed 16) in a best of three and wins it in 57% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 13% 25% 24% 18% 13% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 57% FURIA 20%, Spirit 14% At 2–0, best of three 30% Vitality 28%, Falcons 15% At 0–1 43% FUT 26%, FURIA 12% At 0–2, best of three 17% G2 12%, B8 11%
9						2–3
Opens against Vitality (seed 1) in a best of three and wins it in 18% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 13% 21% 20% 23% 19% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 18% MOUZ 19%, Spirit 19% At 2–0, best of three 8% Falcons 13%, Spirit 11% At 0–1 82% G2 14%, MOUZ 14% At 0–2, best of three 41% B8 15%, Legacy 13%
10						3–0
Opens against Natus Vincere (seed 2) in a best of three and wins it in 62% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 32% 36% 20% 6% 4% 2% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 62% MOUZ 13%, The MongolZ 13% At 2–0, best of three 46% Vitality 19%, Falcons 17% At 0–1 38% FUT 25%, G2 23% At 0–2, best of three 8% B8 13%, Legacy 11%
11						3–2
Opens against Falcons (seed 3) in a best of three and wins it in 30% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 13% 19% 21% 23% 19% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 30% Spirit 19%, The MongolZ 14% At 2–0, best of three 13% Vitality 25%, Spirit 12% At 0–1 70% FUT 17%, PARIVISION 14% At 0–2, best of three 38% B8 14%, Legacy 13%
12						3–2
Opens against The MongolZ (seed 4) in a best of three and wins it in 53% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 7% 17% 21% 23% 20% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 53% Falcons 21%, Aurora 14% At 2–0, best of three 22% Vitality 28%, Spirit 15% At 0–1 47% G2 20%, PARIVISION 17% At 0–2, best of three 24% B8 13%, Legacy 12%
13						3–2
Opens against PARIVISION (seed 5) in a best of three and wins it in 60% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 15% 19% 24% 24% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 60% Falcons 26%, Vitality 16% At 2–0, best of three 21% Vitality 30%, Spirit 16% At 0–1 40% FUT 15%, The MongolZ 15% At 0–2, best of three 23% Monte 12%, FUT 12%
14						1–3
Opens against Aurora (seed 6) in a best of three and wins it in 45% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 3% 8% 12% 23% 31% 23% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 45% Vitality 29%, Falcons 26% At 2–0, best of three 10% Vitality 26%, Spirit 17% At 0–1 55% The MongolZ 19%, PARIVISION 19% At 0–2, best of three 36% FUT 13%, G2 12%
15						0–3
Opens against FURIA (seed 7) in a best of three and wins it in 38% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 2% 8% 13% 22% 30% 25% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 38% Vitality 46%, Falcons 22% At 2–0, best of three 8% Spirit 18%, Vitality 17% At 0–1 62% Natus Vincere 28%, The MongolZ 20% At 0–2, best of three 41% FUT 15%, G2 13%
16						1–3
Opens against MOUZ (seed 8) in a best of three and wins it in 43% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 15% 22% 21% 21% 16% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 43% Vitality 82% At 2–0, best of three 10% Falcons 19%, Spirit 18% At 0–1 57% Natus Vincere 50%, Vitality 18% At 0–2, best of three 36% FUT 15%, G2 13%

In our setEach slot has its own colour, and its strength is the chance. It steps up at 50%. Each row sums to 100.

How the sets did

5 of 10

for our set, which completes the stage. Before the first match it had a 37% chance of 5 or more.

Picking by seed

3 of 10

3–02 of 2

Vitality Miss

Spirit Hit

3–1 or 3–26 of 6

Natus Vincere Miss

Falcons Hit

FURIA Miss

MOUZ Miss

BetBoom Hit

Legacy Miss

0–32 of 2

PARIVISION Hit

B8 Hit

One stage is one draw, so a single result says little about the model. How our chances held up over the nine stages of the last three Majors is in the method.

How these numbers are made

Ours: every chance on this page, from 200,000 simulated runs of the stage on our per-map Elo rating. Forecast of 10 Jun 2026, model v1.5.
Valve's: the seeding, taken from the Regional Standings of 4 May 2026.
Pairings follow Valve's Major rulebook: round 1 is seed 1 against 9 and so on, later rounds pair within the same record by Difficulty Score and seed without rematches, and matches that can advance or eliminate a team are best of three.
The model's opinion: on the nine Swiss stages of Austin 2025, Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026 the model was ahead of picking by seed, but not by more than chance can explain, so these numbers are not shown to beat seeding.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.