// Event · Tier C

CIS LAN Championship 8

29 Sep – 2 Oct 2026 LAN 16 teams $40,000 31 days before the cut
Race impact ?
3
16th largest of 17 before the cut

Why it matters

Facts beside our number
Valve's event weight
0.42
From its prize pool of $40,000, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.
Teams in the race known to attend
4
HOTUNemesisNuclear TigeRESK27
Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.
Timing
31 days before the cut
TodayCut · 2 Nov
Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

4 teams in the race known to attend

Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.

TeamTodayWhen it pays off
Out before the quarter-finals
4%
-17 points
Quarter-final
7%
-14 points
Semi-final
11%
-10 points
Final
16%
-5 points
Win it
45%
+24 points

HOTU need the title for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 21% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 17 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

HOTU's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
—
too few runs
Quarter-final
7%
-9 points
Semi-final
12%
-4 points
Final
18%
+2 points
Win it
33%
+17 points

Nemesis need a final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 16% they hold today. Going out in the quarter-finals costs them 9 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

Nemesis's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
-3 points
Quarter-final
1%
-2 points
Semi-final
2%
-1 points
Final
4%
0 points
Win it
8%
+5 points

Nuclear TigeRES need a final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 3% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 3 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

Nuclear TigeRES's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
—
too few runs
Quarter-final
2%
-2 points
Semi-final
3%
-2 points
Final
4%
0 points
Win it
10%
+5 points

K27 need the title for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 4% they hold today. Going out in the quarter-finals costs them 2 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

K27's page →

The field

16 known · strongest first, by our Elo
In the race · 21%
HOTU
Europe #19
Elo 1,637 · 28th
In the race · 3%
Nuclear TigeRES
Europe #32
Elo 1,629 · 30th
In the race · 16%
Nemesis
Europe #34
Elo 1,627 · 32nd
In the race · 4%
K27
Europe #29
Elo 1,616 · 38th
CYBERSHOKE
Europe #59
Elo 1,553 · 61st
Black Phoenix
Europe #68
Elo 1,519 · 74th
BAKS
Europe #76
Elo 1,431 · 155th
Omega
Europe #41
Elo 1,415 · 173rd
UPGRADE
Europe #64
Elo 1,377 · 233rd
D
DARKWALL
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
E
EVO Elite
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
K
Krytiepacani
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
R
REFRESHER
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
T
Team Magnum
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
C
CRUISER AURORA
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
P
PRIVATE
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
How these numbers are made
  • Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 1 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
  • Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
  • Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.