// Pick'em · BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025

Stage 1 Pick'em

Stage 1 is over. The table is our forecast from before the first match, next to where each team finished.

Worked out afterwards, as the backtest was: on our Elo from the day before the stage and nothing after it. It was not published at the time.

Forecast and result

Chances are from before the first match. The last column is where each team finished.

Seed#	Team	3–02 slots	3–1 or 3–23–1 3–26 slots	2–3 or 1–32–3 1–3no slot	0–32 slots	Finished
1						1–3
Opens against OG (seed 9) in a best of one and wins it in 52% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 13% 21% 21% 19% 17% 9% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 52% Fluxo 61%, Metizport 14% At 2–0, best of three 26% Wildcard 12%, HEROIC 10% At 0–1 48% Metizport 39%, Fluxo 39% At 0–2, best of three 21% Nemiga 15%, Chinggis Warriors 13%
2						3–0
Opens against Chinggis Warriors (seed 10) in a best of one and wins it in 72% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 27% 28% 21% 12% 9% 3% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 72% Fluxo 29%, Legacy 21% At 2–0, best of three 43% No single likely opponent At 0–1 28% Metizport 32%, Fluxo 21% At 0–2, best of three 10% Nemiga 13%, Metizport 11%
3						3–0
Opens against Imperial (seed 11) in a best of one and wins it in 50% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 17% 25% 24% 15% 13% 6% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 50% Legacy 20%, NRG 16% At 2–0, best of three 30% Fluxo 13%, HEROIC 13% At 0–1 50% Metizport 27%, Legacy 17% At 0–2, best of three 19% Metizport 13%, Chinggis Warriors 13%
4						3–1
Opens against Nemiga (seed 12) in a best of one and wins it in 61% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 13% 19% 19% 22% 18% 9% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 61% Legacy 15%, NRG 15% At 2–0, best of three 30% HEROIC 14%, Fluxo 11% At 0–1 39% Metizport 18%, NRG 16% At 0–2, best of three 19% Metizport 14%, Chinggis Warriors 13%
5						3–2
Opens against NRG (seed 13) in a best of one and wins it in 53% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 17% 25% 23% 15% 13% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 53% Lynn Vision 16%, Imperial 12% At 2–0, best of three 31% HEROIC 14%, Fluxo 11% At 0–1 47% Nemiga 19%, Legacy 14% At 0–2, best of three 19% Metizport 16%, Chinggis Warriors 13%
6						3–2
Opens against Legacy (seed 14) in a best of one and wins it in 46% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 11% 19% 21% 20% 18% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 46% Wildcard 22%, TYLOO 18% At 2–0, best of three 24% HEROIC 14% At 0–1 54% NRG 16%, Nemiga 15% At 0–2, best of three 25% Metizport 15%, Chinggis Warriors 13%
7						2–3
Opens against Metizport (seed 15) in a best of one and wins it in 64% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 13% 18% 18% 23% 19% 9% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 64% Lynn Vision 16%, FlyQuest 12% At 2–0, best of three 31% HEROIC 14%, Complexity 11% At 0–1 36% FlyQuest 19%, Lynn Vision 14% At 0–2, best of three 18% Chinggis Warriors 14%, Nemiga 11%
8						2–3
Opens against Fluxo (seed 16) in a best of one and wins it in 39% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 13% 15% 23% 25% 18% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 39% Wildcard 20%, OG 14% At 2–0, best of three 16% HEROIC 13%, Complexity 11% At 0–1 61% OG 15%, Chinggis Warriors 12% At 0–2, best of three 33% Metizport 14%, Chinggis Warriors 13%
9						3–1
Opens against Complexity (seed 1) in a best of one and wins it in 48% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 11% 18% 20% 21% 19% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 48% Wildcard 14%, FlyQuest 11% At 2–0, best of three 24% HEROIC 12%, Fluxo 11% At 0–1 52% Chinggis Warriors 23%, FlyQuest 18% At 0–2, best of three 24% Metizport 14%, Nemiga 11%
10						1–3
Opens against HEROIC (seed 2) in a best of one and wins it in 28% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 3% 7% 9% 21% 30% 30% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 28% OG 15%, Imperial 15% At 2–0, best of three 10% Fluxo 12% At 0–1 72% Imperial 17%, OG 16% At 0–2, best of three 46% Metizport 14%, Nemiga 12%
11						1–3
Opens against B8 (seed 3) in a best of one and wins it in 50% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 17% 25% 23% 15% 13% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 50% BetBoom 17%, TYLOO 13% At 2–0, best of three 29% HEROIC 13%, Fluxo 11% At 0–1 50% Chinggis Warriors 24%, Nemiga 15% At 0–2, best of three 19% Metizport 14%
12						3–1
Opens against BetBoom (seed 4) in a best of one and wins it in 39% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 8% 10% 23% 30% 25% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 39% TYLOO 16%, B8 14% At 2–0, best of three 14% HEROIC 14% At 0–1 61% TYLOO 15%, Lynn Vision 13% At 0–2, best of three 38% Chinggis Warriors 14%, Metizport 13%
13						2–3
Opens against TYLOO (seed 5) in a best of one and wins it in 47% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 13% 22% 22% 18% 16% 9% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 47% BetBoom 19%, HEROIC 18% At 2–0, best of three 25% HEROIC 13% At 0–1 53% Lynn Vision 16%, B8 14% At 0–2, best of three 24% Chinggis Warriors 13%, Metizport 12%
14						3–2
Opens against Lynn Vision (seed 6) in a best of one and wins it in 54% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 15% 22% 23% 17% 15% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 54% HEROIC 29%, B8 19% At 2–0, best of three 27% HEROIC 11%, TYLOO 10% At 0–1 46% B8 19%, TYLOO 14% At 0–2, best of three 22% Chinggis Warriors 14%, Nemiga 12%
15						0–3
Opens against Wildcard (seed 7) in a best of one and wins it in 36% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 3% 6% 7% 21% 32% 31% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 36% HEROIC 36%, Complexity 20% At 2–0, best of three 11% Imperial 10% At 0–1 64% Complexity 29%, B8 21% At 0–2, best of three 44% Chinggis Warriors 15%, Nemiga 11%
16						0–3
Opens against FlyQuest (seed 8) in a best of one and wins it in 61% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 17% 24% 22% 16% 14% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 61% Complexity 52%, HEROIC 35% At 2–0, best of three 31% B8 13%, TYLOO 11% At 0–1 39% Complexity 48%, B8 19% At 0–2, best of three 19% Chinggis Warriors 19%, Nemiga 11%

In our setEach slot has its own colour, and its strength is the chance. It steps up at 50%. Each row sums to 100.

How the sets did

4 of 10

for our set, which misses the stage. Before the first match it had a 31% chance of 5 or more.

Picking by seed

6 of 10

3–02 of 2

HEROIC Hit

Fluxo Miss

3–1 or 3–26 of 6

Complexity Miss

B8 Miss

TYLOO Hit

Imperial Miss

NRG Miss

Legacy Hit

0–32 of 2

Chinggis Warriors Miss

Metizport Hit

One stage is one draw, so a single result says little about the model. How our chances held up over the nine stages of the last three Majors is in the method.

How these numbers are made

Ours: every chance on this page, from 200,000 simulated runs of the stage on our per-map Elo rating. Forecast of 2 Jun 2025, model v1.5.
Valve's: the seeding, taken from the Regional Standings of 5 May 2025.
Pairings follow Valve's Major rulebook: round 1 is seed 1 against 9 and so on, later rounds pair within the same record by Difficulty Score and seed without rematches, and matches that can advance or eliminate a team are best of three.
The model's opinion: on the nine Swiss stages of Austin 2025, Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026 the model was ahead of picking by seed, but not by more than chance can explain, so these numbers are not shown to beat seeding.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.