// Pick'em · BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025

Stage 3 Pick'em

Stage 3 is over. The table is our forecast from before the first match, next to where each team finished.

Worked out afterwards, as the backtest was: on our Elo from the day before the stage and nothing after it. It was not published at the time.

Forecast and result

Chances are from before the first match. The last column is where each team finished.

Seed#	Team	3–02 slots	3–1 or 3–23–1 3–26 slots	2–3 or 1–32–3 1–3no slot	0–32 slots	Finished
1						3–1
Opens against Legacy (seed 9) in a best of one and wins it in 77% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 53% 31% 13% 2% 1% 0% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 77% Lynn Vision 51%, Nemiga 18% At 2–0, best of three 63% Natus Vincere 14%, Spirit 14% At 0–1 23% Lynn Vision 49%, Nemiga 32% At 0–2, best of three 4% FURIA 14%, paiN 13%
2						3–2
Opens against Virtus.pro (seed 10) in a best of one and wins it in 70% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 28% 31% 22% 10% 6% 3% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 70% FaZe 24%, Nemiga 18% At 2–0, best of three 48% Spirit 22%, The MongolZ 14% At 0–1 30% Lynn Vision 38%, Nemiga 32% At 0–2, best of three 9% paiN 13%, FURIA 13%
3						3–0
Opens against paiN (seed 11) in a best of one and wins it in 78% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 34% 33% 20% 7% 4% 2% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 78% FaZe 17%, 3DMAX 15% At 2–0, best of three 55% MOUZ 20%, Vitality 16% At 0–1 22% Nemiga 30%, Lynn Vision 26% At 0–2, best of three 6% FURIA 11%, Virtus.pro 10%
4						2–3
Opens against 3DMAX (seed 12) in a best of one and wins it in 53% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 10% 21% 23% 21% 17% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 53% The MongolZ 27%, Natus Vincere 13% At 2–0, best of three 28% Vitality 20%, Spirit 19% At 0–1 47% Nemiga 27%, Lynn Vision 20% At 0–2, best of three 20% paiN 17%, Nemiga 11%
5						3–2
Opens against FURIA (seed 13) in a best of one and wins it in 63% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 16% 28% 24% 16% 11% 5% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 63% G2 22%, Aurora 20% At 2–0, best of three 37% Vitality 23%, Spirit 17% At 0–1 37% Nemiga 20%, FaZe 16% At 0–2, best of three 14% Nemiga 13%, paiN 13%
6						1–3
Opens against FaZe (seed 14) in a best of one and wins it in 48% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 16% 19% 24% 22% 13% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 48% The MongolZ 27%, Natus Vincere 21% At 2–0, best of three 21% Vitality 25%, MOUZ 16% At 0–1 52% FURIA 21%, Nemiga 15% At 0–2, best of three 25% paiN 13%, Nemiga 12%
7						3–1
Opens against Nemiga (seed 15) in a best of one and wins it in 64% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 12% 24% 23% 20% 15% 6% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 64% Spirit 18%, Aurora 16% At 2–0, best of three 32% Vitality 28%, MOUZ 14% At 0–1 36% paiN 14%, FURIA 14% At 0–2, best of three 15% paiN 14%, Virtus.pro 12%
8						0–3
Opens against Lynn Vision (seed 16) in a best of one and wins it in 49% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 15% 18% 25% 23% 14% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 49% Spirit 18%, Natus Vincere 15% At 2–0, best of three 19% Vitality 27%, MOUZ 14% At 0–1 51% Legacy 20%, paiN 17% At 0–2, best of three 26% paiN 14%, Virtus.pro 13%
9						2–3
Opens against Vitality (seed 1) in a best of one and wins it in 23% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 19% 24% 19% 19% 13% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 23% The MongolZ 14%, Liquid 13% At 2–0, best of three 12% Spirit 15%, MOUZ 12% At 0–1 77% Virtus.pro 20%, Liquid 13% At 0–2, best of three 32% Lynn Vision 15%, Nemiga 15%
10						2–3
Opens against MOUZ (seed 2) in a best of one and wins it in 30% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 11% 16% 23% 26% 20% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 30% G2 16%, The MongolZ 15% At 2–0, best of three 12% Spirit 18%, Vitality 17% At 0–1 70% paiN 27%, Legacy 22% At 0–2, best of three 37% Lynn Vision 14%, Nemiga 14%
11						3–2
Opens against Spirit (seed 3) in a best of one and wins it in 22% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 2% 6% 9% 21% 30% 32% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 22% G2 17%, The MongolZ 15% At 2–0, best of three 7% Vitality 18%, MOUZ 15% At 0–1 78% Virtus.pro 24%, 3DMAX 16% At 0–2, best of three 49% Nemiga 16%, Lynn Vision 12%
12						1–3
Opens against G2 (seed 4) in a best of one and wins it in 47% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 17% 21% 23% 21% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 47% Spirit 25%, MOUZ 18% At 2–0, best of three 19% Vitality 22%, Spirit 14% At 0–1 53% paiN 24%, Legacy 17% At 0–2, best of three 26% Nemiga 14%, Virtus.pro 11%
13						3–0
Opens against The MongolZ (seed 5) in a best of one and wins it in 37% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 11% 17% 23% 26% 19% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 37% Spirit 28%, MOUZ 24% At 2–0, best of three 12% Vitality 23%, Spirit 12% At 0–1 63% Aurora 17%, Legacy 15% At 0–2, best of three 35% paiN 15%, Nemiga 13%
14						3–1
Opens against Aurora (seed 6) in a best of one and wins it in 52% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 15% 20% 23% 23% 13% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 52% MOUZ 32%, Spirit 25% At 2–0, best of three 17% Vitality 23%, Spirit 11% At 0–1 48% G2 16%, Legacy 14% At 0–2, best of three 27% paiN 16%, FURIA 12%
15						0–3
Opens against Natus Vincere (seed 7) in a best of one and wins it in 36% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 2% 8% 12% 22% 30% 26% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 36% Vitality 37%, MOUZ 36% At 2–0, best of three 8% Vitality 17%, Spirit 14% At 0–1 64% G2 20%, MOUZ 15% At 0–2, best of three 43% paiN 18%, Virtus.pro 12%
16						1–3
Opens against Liquid (seed 8) in a best of one and wins it in 51% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 13% 19% 23% 25% 16% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 51% Vitality 77%, MOUZ 16% At 2–0, best of three 11% Spirit 20%, MOUZ 14% At 0–1 49% Vitality 23%, MOUZ 23% At 0–2, best of three 32% paiN 19%, Virtus.pro 16%

In our setEach slot has its own colour, and its strength is the chance. It steps up at 50%. Each row sums to 100.

How the sets did

5 of 10

for our set, which completes the stage. Before the first match it had a 42% chance of 5 or more.

Picking by seed

3 of 10

3–02 of 2

Vitality Miss

Spirit Hit

3–1 or 3–26 of 6

MOUZ Hit

G2 Miss

The MongolZ Hit

Natus Vincere Hit

Legacy Miss

3DMAX Miss

0–32 of 2

paiN Miss

Nemiga Hit

One stage is one draw, so a single result says little about the model. How our chances held up over the nine stages of the last three Majors is in the method.

How these numbers are made

Ours: every chance on this page, from 200,000 simulated runs of the stage on our per-map Elo rating. Forecast of 11 Jun 2025, model v1.5.
Valve's: the seeding, taken from the Regional Standings of 5 May 2025.
Pairings follow Valve's Major rulebook: round 1 is seed 1 against 9 and so on, later rounds pair within the same record by Difficulty Score and seed without rematches, and matches that can advance or eliminate a team are best of three.
The model's opinion: on the nine Swiss stages of Austin 2025, Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026 the model was ahead of picking by seed, but not by more than chance can explain, so these numbers are not shown to beat seeding.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.