// Pick'em · BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025

Stage 2 Pick'em

Stage 2 is over. The table is our forecast from before the first match, next to where each team finished.

Worked out afterwards, as the backtest was: on our Elo from the day before the stage and nothing after it. It was not published at the time.

Forecast and result

Chances are from before the first match. The last column is where each team finished.

Seed#	Team	3–02 slots	3–1 or 3–23–1 3–26 slots	2–3 or 1–32–3 1–3no slot	0–32 slots	Finished
1						1–3
Opens against B8 (seed 9) in a best of one and wins it in 55% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 25% 30% 24% 9% 8% 4% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 55% TYLOO 56%, Legacy 26% At 2–0, best of three 34% OG 13%, Lynn Vision 11% At 0–1 45% TYLOO 44%, Legacy 23% At 0–2, best of three 17% MIBR 11%, paiN 11%
2						3–2
Opens against HEROIC (seed 10) in a best of one and wins it in 39% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 10% 18% 21% 19% 19% 13% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 39% Legacy 31%, TYLOO 25% At 2–0, best of three 19% OG 12% At 0–1 61% TYLOO 24%, Legacy 20% At 0–2, best of three 30% paiN 11%
3						3–1
Opens against BetBoom (seed 11) in a best of one and wins it in 50% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 12% 18% 20% 19% 19% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 50% Legacy 25%, Lynn Vision 20% At 2–0, best of three 25% HEROIC 13%, OG 10% At 0–1 50% Lynn Vision 17%, Nemiga 15% At 0–2, best of three 25% paiN 12%, Virtus.pro 10%
4						3–0
Opens against OG (seed 12) in a best of one and wins it in 41% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 12% 14% 23% 25% 20% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 41% Lynn Vision 18%, Nemiga 17% At 2–0, best of three 18% HEROIC 12% At 0–1 59% BetBoom 14%, Nemiga 14% At 0–2, best of three 33% paiN 10%
5						3–1
Opens against Nemiga (seed 13) in a best of one and wins it in 45% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 8% 9% 24% 30% 25% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 45% OG 18%, Lynn Vision 15% At 2–0, best of three 16% HEROIC 11%, Falcons 10% At 0–1 55% FURIA 16%, OG 12% At 0–2, best of three 35% No single likely opponent
6						3–1
Opens against Lynn Vision (seed 14) in a best of one and wins it in 45% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 8% 14% 16% 23% 23% 16% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 45% Nemiga 16%, OG 14% At 2–0, best of three 21% HEROIC 12% At 0–1 55% MIBR 20%, paiN 16% At 0–2, best of three 29% No single likely opponent
7						2–3
Opens against Legacy (seed 15) in a best of one and wins it in 40% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 13% 15% 22% 25% 19% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 40% M80 13%, FURIA 13% At 2–0, best of three 18% HEROIC 12%, Falcons 11% At 0–1 60% FURIA 18%, M80 17% At 0–2, best of three 33% paiN 10%
8						1–3
Opens against TYLOO (seed 16) in a best of one and wins it in 44% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 9% 16% 18% 21% 21% 15% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 44% B8 13%, MIBR 12% At 2–0, best of three 21% Falcons 12%, HEROIC 11% At 0–1 56% MIBR 18%, B8 16% At 0–2, best of three 29% paiN 10%
9						2–3
Opens against Falcons (seed 1) in a best of one and wins it in 45% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 17% 27% 25% 13% 11% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 45% HEROIC 18%, M80 13% At 2–0, best of three 27% TYLOO 13%, Legacy 11% At 0–1 55% M80 17%, HEROIC 12% At 0–2, best of three 21% No single likely opponent
10						2–3
Opens against FaZe (seed 2) in a best of one and wins it in 61% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 25% 28% 23% 11% 9% 4% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 61% BetBoom 17%, B8 13% At 2–0, best of three 38% No single likely opponent At 0–1 39% B8 16%, BetBoom 13% At 0–2, best of three 14% MIBR 10%
11						0–3
Opens against 3DMAX (seed 3) in a best of one and wins it in 50% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 12% 19% 20% 20% 18% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 50% HEROIC 21%, OG 19% At 2–0, best of three 25% Falcons 12%, Legacy 10% At 0–1 50% Virtus.pro 17%, paiN 13% At 0–2, best of three 24% No single likely opponent
12						0–3
Opens against Virtus.pro (seed 4) in a best of one and wins it in 59% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 15% 21% 20% 19% 16% 9% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 59% BetBoom 16%, paiN 14% At 2–0, best of three 32% Falcons 14%, HEROIC 11% At 0–1 41% paiN 17%, 3DMAX 14% At 0–2, best of three 19% FaZe 10%, MIBR 10%
13						3–2
Opens against paiN (seed 5) in a best of one and wins it in 55% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 7% 12% 13% 25% 26% 17% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 55% 3DMAX 14%, FURIA 13% At 2–0, best of three 22% Falcons 16%, HEROIC 11% At 0–1 45% Virtus.pro 18%, FaZe 18% At 0–2, best of three 26% FaZe 11%, FURIA 11%
14						3–2
Opens against FURIA (seed 6) in a best of one and wins it in 55% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 12% 19% 19% 20% 19% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 55% 3DMAX 19%, FaZe 14% At 2–0, best of three 27% Falcons 14%, HEROIC 11% At 0–1 45% FaZe 25%, 3DMAX 19% At 0–2, best of three 23% paiN 12%, MIBR 11%
15						3–0
Opens against MIBR (seed 7) in a best of one and wins it in 60% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 16% 22% 21% 18% 15% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 60% Falcons 24%, 3DMAX 20% At 2–0, best of three 31% HEROIC 12% At 0–1 40% FaZe 31%, Falcons 25% At 0–2, best of three 19% Virtus.pro 12%, paiN 12%
16						1–3
Opens against M80 (seed 8) in a best of one and wins it in 56% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 15% 22% 22% 17% 15% 9% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 56% Falcons 55%, FaZe 18% At 2–0, best of three 27% HEROIC 14%, B8 13% At 0–1 44% Falcons 45%, FaZe 34% At 0–2, best of three 23% Virtus.pro 14%, paiN 13%

In our setEach slot has its own colour, and its strength is the chance. It steps up at 50%. Each row sums to 100.

How the sets did

1 of 10

for our set, which misses the stage. Before the first match it had a 24% chance of 5 or more.

Picking by seed

3 of 10

3–02 of 2

HEROIC Miss

OG Miss

3–1 or 3–26 of 6

Falcons Miss

3DMAX Hit

B8 Miss

BetBoom Miss

Legacy Miss

TYLOO Miss

0–32 of 2

Virtus.pro Miss

paiN Miss

One stage is one draw, so a single result says little about the model. How our chances held up over the nine stages of the last three Majors is in the method.

How these numbers are made

Ours: every chance on this page, from 200,000 simulated runs of the stage on our per-map Elo rating. Forecast of 6 Jun 2025, model v1.5.
Valve's: the seeding, taken from the Regional Standings of 5 May 2025.
Pairings follow Valve's Major rulebook: round 1 is seed 1 against 9 and so on, later rounds pair within the same record by Difficulty Score and seed without rematches, and matches that can advance or eliminate a team are best of three.
The model's opinion: on the nine Swiss stages of Austin 2025, Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026 the model was ahead of picking by seed, but not by more than chance can explain, so these numbers are not shown to beat seeding.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.