// Pick'em · StarLadder Budapest Major 2025

Stage 1 Pick'em

Stage 1 is over. The table is our forecast from before the first match, next to where each team finished.

Worked out afterwards, as the backtest was: on our Elo from the day before the stage and nothing after it. It was not published at the time.

Forecast and result

Chances are from before the first match. The last column is where each team finished.

Seed#	Team	3–02 slots	3–1 or 3–23–1 3–26 slots	2–3 or 1–32–3 1–3no slot	0–32 slots	Finished
1						2–3
Opens against FlyQuest (seed 9) in a best of one and wins it in 66% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 25% 28% 22% 12% 9% 4% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 66% Rare Atom 46%, NRG 36% At 2–0, best of three 40% PARIVISION 15% At 0–1 34% Rare Atom 54%, The Huns 21% At 0–2, best of three 12% RED Canids 14%, The Huns 13%
2						3–2
Opens against Lynn Vision (seed 10) in a best of one and wins it in 48% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 15% 23% 23% 17% 14% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 48% NRG 32%, Rare Atom 16% At 2–0, best of three 27% PARIVISION 16% At 0–1 52% Rare Atom 36%, The Huns 26% At 0–2, best of three 21% RED Canids 13%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 11%
3						3–1
Opens against M80 (seed 11) in a best of one and wins it in 46% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 11% 20% 21% 19% 18% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 46% NRG 22%, Fluxo 14% At 2–0, best of three 24% PARIVISION 14% At 0–1 55% The Huns 27%, RED Canids 17% At 0–2, best of three 24% Rare Atom 12%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 11%
4						1–3
Opens against Fluxo (seed 12) in a best of one and wins it in 51% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 11% 19% 19% 21% 19% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 51% M80 16%, NRG 14% At 2–0, best of three 25% PARIVISION 14%, Legacy 11% At 0–1 49% The Huns 22%, RED Canids 20% At 0–2, best of three 23% Rare Atom 13%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 11%
5						3–1
Opens against RED Canids (seed 13) in a best of one and wins it in 61% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 14% 21% 20% 20% 17% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 61% PARIVISION 20%, Fluxo 16% At 2–0, best of three 30% Legacy 13%, NRG 12% At 0–1 39% The Huns 16%, Fluxo 16% At 0–2, best of three 19% The Huns 12%, Rare Atom 11%
6						3–2
Opens against The Huns (seed 14) in a best of one and wins it in 70% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 30% 30% 21% 9% 7% 3% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 70% fnatic 17%, M80 12% At 2–0, best of three 45% Legacy 14% At 0–1 30% Ninjas in Pyjamas 19%, RED Canids 14% At 0–2, best of three 10% RED Canids 12%, Rare Atom 11%
7						3–1
Opens against NRG (seed 15) in a best of one and wins it in 34% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 10% 13% 22% 28% 23% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 34% PARIVISION 24%, Imperial 16% At 2–0, best of three 13% Legacy 15% At 0–1 66% RED Canids 15%, Imperial 14% At 0–2, best of three 38% The Huns 13%, RED Canids 11%
8						3–2
Opens against Rare Atom (seed 16) in a best of one and wins it in 54% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 10% 16% 18% 23% 21% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 54% PARIVISION 16%, FlyQuest 11% At 2–0, best of three 24% Legacy 14%, PARIVISION 12% At 0–1 46% FlyQuest 21%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 20% At 0–2, best of three 23% The Huns 11%, RED Canids 10%
9						3–0
Opens against Legacy (seed 1) in a best of one and wins it in 34% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 12% 15% 22% 26% 20% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 34% Imperial 17%, Lynn Vision 17% At 2–0, best of three 14% PARIVISION 14%, NRG 13% At 0–1 66% Lynn Vision 16%, Imperial 15% At 0–2, best of three 37% Rare Atom 12%, The Huns 12%
10						0–3
Opens against FaZe (seed 2) in a best of one and wins it in 52% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 16% 25% 24% 15% 13% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 52% M80 16%, PARIVISION 13% At 2–0, best of three 29% PARIVISION 14%, NRG 12% At 0–1 48% FlyQuest 21%, M80 16% At 0–2, best of three 20% Rare Atom 12%, The Huns 12%
11						3–0
Opens against B8 (seed 3) in a best of one and wins it in 55% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 16% 24% 23% 16% 14% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 55% PARIVISION 16%, Lynn Vision 15% At 2–0, best of three 29% Legacy 14%, PARIVISION 12% At 0–1 46% Lynn Vision 17%, Fluxo 15% At 0–2, best of three 20% The Huns 13%, Rare Atom 11%
12						2–3
Opens against GamerLegion (seed 4) in a best of one and wins it in 49% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 9% 17% 19% 21% 21% 13% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 49% fnatic 20%, PARIVISION 15% At 2–0, best of three 22% Legacy 15%, PARIVISION 12% At 0–1 51% Ninjas in Pyjamas 15%, M80 14% At 0–2, best of three 26% The Huns 13%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 11%
13						1–3
Opens against fnatic (seed 5) in a best of one and wins it in 39% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 9% 12% 23% 29% 23% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 39% PARIVISION 17%, GamerLegion 16% At 2–0, best of three 14% Legacy 15%, PARIVISION 12% At 0–1 61% Ninjas in Pyjamas 16%, GamerLegion 16% At 0–2, best of three 37% The Huns 12%, FlyQuest 11%
14						1–3
Opens against PARIVISION (seed 6) in a best of one and wins it in 30% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 11% 14% 21% 26% 23% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 30% FaZe 19%, B8 18% At 2–0, best of three 12% Legacy 14% At 0–1 70% B8 21%, FaZe 19% At 0–2, best of three 41% Ninjas in Pyjamas 12%, RED Canids 11%
15						2–3
Opens against Ninjas in Pyjamas (seed 7) in a best of one and wins it in 66% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 19% 25% 23% 15% 12% 6% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 66% Legacy 36%, FaZe 24% At 2–0, best of three 34% PARIVISION 13% At 0–1 34% FaZe 25%, B8 23% At 0–2, best of three 15% FlyQuest 13%, The Huns 13%
16						0–3
Opens against Imperial (seed 8) in a best of one and wins it in 46% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 11% 15% 23% 26% 19% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 46% Legacy 66%, FaZe 17% At 2–0, best of three 16% PARIVISION 13%, Lynn Vision 11% At 0–1 54% FaZe 34%, Legacy 34% At 0–2, best of three 34% FlyQuest 14%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 12%

In our setEach slot has its own colour, and its strength is the chance. It steps up at 50%. Each row sums to 100.

How the sets did

3 of 10

for our set, which misses the stage. Before the first match it had a 29% chance of 5 or more.

Picking by seed

6 of 10

3–02 of 2

Legacy Miss

PARIVISION Miss

3–1 or 3–26 of 6

FaZe Hit

B8 Hit

fnatic Hit

Lynn Vision Miss

M80 Miss

NRG Miss

0–32 of 2

RED Canids Miss

The Huns Miss

One stage is one draw, so a single result says little about the model. How our chances held up over the nine stages of the last three Majors is in the method.

How these numbers are made

Ours: every chance on this page, from 200,000 simulated runs of the stage on our per-map Elo rating. Forecast of 23 Nov 2025, model v1.5.
Valve's: the seeding, taken from the Regional Standings of 3 Nov 2025.
Pairings follow Valve's Major rulebook: round 1 is seed 1 against 9 and so on, later rounds pair within the same record by Difficulty Score and seed without rematches, and matches that can advance or eliminate a team are best of three.
The model's opinion: on the nine Swiss stages of Austin 2025, Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026 the model was ahead of picking by seed, but not by more than chance can explain, so these numbers are not shown to beat seeding.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.