// Pick'em · StarLadder Budapest Major 2025

Stage 3 Pick'em

Stage 3 is over. The table is our forecast from before the first match, next to where each team finished.

Worked out afterwards, as the backtest was: on our Elo from the day before the stage and nothing after it. It was not published at the time.

Forecast and result

Chances are from before the first match. The last column is where each team finished.

Seed#	Team	3–02 slots	3–1 or 3–23–1 3–26 slots	2–3 or 1–32–3 1–3no slot	0–32 slots	Finished
1						3–0
Opens against Natus Vincere (seed 9) in a best of one and wins it in 67% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 36% 32% 20% 6% 4% 2% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 67% 3DMAX 50%, Passion UA 17% At 2–0, best of three 51% Spirit 15%, G2 13% At 0–1 33% 3DMAX 50%, Passion UA 33% At 0–2, best of three 7% Imperial 14%, Liquid 13%
2						3–1
Opens against FaZe (seed 10) in a best of one and wins it in 71% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 35% 32% 20% 7% 4% 2% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 71% Passion UA 17%, 3DMAX 17% At 2–0, best of three 52% Falcons 18%, MOUZ 14% At 0–1 29% 3DMAX 34%, Passion UA 32% At 0–2, best of three 7% Imperial 13%, paiN 11%
3						3–2
Opens against B8 (seed 11) in a best of one and wins it in 70% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 30% 32% 22% 9% 5% 2% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 70% PARIVISION 14%, G2 14% At 2–0, best of three 48% Vitality 19%, FURIA 12% At 0–1 30% Passion UA 29%, 3DMAX 24% At 0–2, best of three 8% Imperial 12%, Passion UA 12%
4						3–1
Opens against Imperial (seed 12) in a best of one and wins it in 61% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 11% 20% 21% 23% 17% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 61% MOUZ 20%, G2 14% At 2–0, best of three 30% Vitality 17%, FURIA 17% At 0–1 39% Passion UA 25%, Liquid 22% At 0–2, best of three 17% Passion UA 13%, B8 12%
5						3–1
Opens against PARIVISION (seed 13) in a best of one and wins it in 60% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 21% 30% 25% 13% 8% 3% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 60% Spirit 25%, The MongolZ 20% At 2–0, best of three 37% Vitality 19%, FURIA 17% At 0–1 40% Liquid 21%, Passion UA 20% At 0–2, best of three 13% Passion UA 15%, 3DMAX 11%
6						3–0
Opens against Liquid (seed 14) in a best of one and wins it in 64% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 18% 28% 25% 15% 10% 4% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 64% MOUZ 24%, G2 22% At 2–0, best of three 36% FURIA 21%, Vitality 18% At 0–1 36% PARIVISION 20%, Passion UA 14% At 0–2, best of three 13% Passion UA 15%, Imperial 11%
7						2–3
Opens against Passion UA (seed 15) in a best of one and wins it in 65% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 10% 19% 20% 24% 19% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 65% Spirit 21%, Falcons 15% At 2–0, best of three 29% FURIA 24%, Vitality 16% At 0–1 35% PARIVISION 15%, Liquid 14% At 0–2, best of three 16% Liquid 12%, FaZe 11%
8						1–3
Opens against 3DMAX (seed 16) in a best of one and wins it in 50% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 10% 13% 27% 28% 18% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 50% Falcons 15%, G2 15% At 2–0, best of three 17% FURIA 22%, Vitality 16% At 0–1 50% Natus Vincere 16%, Liquid 13% At 0–2, best of three 29% Passion UA 13%, FaZe 11%
9						3–2
Opens against FURIA (seed 1) in a best of one and wins it in 33% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 8% 19% 24% 20% 18% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 33% The MongolZ 14%, MOUZ 13% At 2–0, best of three 16% Vitality 14%, Falcons 13% At 0–1 67% FaZe 19%, Imperial 12% At 0–2, best of three 28% Passion UA 18%, 3DMAX 18%
10						3–2
Opens against Vitality (seed 2) in a best of one and wins it in 29% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 13% 18% 23% 24% 17% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 29% The MongolZ 16%, Falcons 14% At 2–0, best of three 12% Falcons 14%, FURIA 13% At 0–1 71% B8 24%, Natus Vincere 18% At 0–2, best of three 37% 3DMAX 18%, Passion UA 17%
11						2–3
Opens against Falcons (seed 3) in a best of one and wins it in 30% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 12% 17% 23% 25% 18% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 30% The MongolZ 20%, MOUZ 14% At 2–0, best of three 12% Vitality 15%, FURIA 15% At 0–1 70% FaZe 25%, Imperial 21% At 0–2, best of three 36% Passion UA 17%, 3DMAX 15%
12						1–3
Opens against The MongolZ (seed 4) in a best of one and wins it in 39% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 3% 8% 13% 24% 30% 22% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 39% Falcons 23%, Vitality 19% At 2–0, best of three 12% FURIA 17%, Vitality 15% At 0–1 61% B8 24%, Natus Vincere 14% At 0–2, best of three 37% Passion UA 16%, Liquid 12%
13						0–3
Opens against MOUZ (seed 5) in a best of one and wins it in 40% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 7% 18% 24% 20% 19% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 40% Vitality 26%, Falcons 24% At 2–0, best of three 16% FURIA 17%, Vitality 14% At 0–1 60% FaZe 15%, Natus Vincere 13% At 0–2, best of three 29% Passion UA 15%, Liquid 12%
14						0–3
Opens against Spirit (seed 6) in a best of one and wins it in 36% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 4% 12% 17% 23% 25% 19% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 36% Vitality 31%, Falcons 23% At 2–0, best of three 12% FURIA 16%, MOUZ 12% At 0–1 64% The MongolZ 14%, MOUZ 13% At 0–2, best of three 37% Passion UA 15%, Imperial 12%
15						2–3
Opens against G2 (seed 7) in a best of one and wins it in 35% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 1% 5% 8% 20% 32% 34% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 35% Vitality 36%, FURIA 33% At 2–0, best of three 7% Falcons 13%, FURIA 12% At 0–1 65% FURIA 17%, The MongolZ 15% At 0–2, best of three 48% B8 13%, FaZe 13%
16						1–3
Opens against paiN (seed 8) in a best of one and wins it in 50% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 3% 9% 13% 24% 29% 22% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 50% FURIA 67%, Vitality 24% At 2–0, best of three 12% Falcons 19%, Vitality 15% At 0–1 50% FURIA 33%, Vitality 20% At 0–2, best of three 36% FaZe 18%, B8 15%

In our setEach slot has its own colour, and its strength is the chance. It steps up at 50%. Each row sums to 100.

How the sets did

5 of 10

for our set, which completes the stage. Before the first match it had a 40% chance of 5 or more.

Picking by seed

4 of 10

3–02 of 2

FURIA Hit

Vitality Miss

3–1 or 3–26 of 6

Falcons Hit

The MongolZ Hit

MOUZ Hit

Spirit Miss

Natus Vincere Hit

PARIVISION Miss

0–32 of 2

Imperial Miss

Passion UA Miss

One stage is one draw, so a single result says little about the model. How our chances held up over the nine stages of the last three Majors is in the method.

How these numbers are made

Ours: every chance on this page, from 200,000 simulated runs of the stage on our per-map Elo rating. Forecast of 3 Dec 2025, model v1.5.
Valve's: the seeding, taken from the Regional Standings of 3 Nov 2025.
Pairings follow Valve's Major rulebook: round 1 is seed 1 against 9 and so on, later rounds pair within the same record by Difficulty Score and seed without rematches, and matches that can advance or eliminate a team are best of three.
The model's opinion: on the nine Swiss stages of Austin 2025, Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026 the model was ahead of picking by seed, but not by more than chance can explain, so these numbers are not shown to beat seeding.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.