// Pick'em · StarLadder Budapest Major 2025

Stage 2 Pick'em

Stage 2 is over. The table is our forecast from before the first match, next to where each team finished.

Worked out afterwards, as the backtest was: on our Elo from the day before the stage and nothing after it. It was not published at the time.

Forecast and result

Chances are from before the first match. The last column is where each team finished.

Seed#	Team	3–02 slots	3–1 or 3–23–1 3–26 slots	2–3 or 1–32–3 1–3no slot	0–32 slots	Finished
1						1–3
Opens against M80 (seed 9) in a best of one and wins it in 50% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 17% 25% 24% 14% 13% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 50% FaZe 62%, Imperial 21% At 2–0, best of three 28% PARIVISION 15%, Astralis 10% At 0–1 50% FaZe 38%, Imperial 28% At 0–2, best of three 21% Passion UA 13%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 13%
2						3–0
Opens against FlyQuest (seed 10) in a best of one and wins it in 63% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 23% 26% 22% 13% 11% 5% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 63% FaZe 31%, Imperial 28% At 2–0, best of three 36% PARIVISION 10% At 0–1 37% Imperial 22%, FaZe 19% At 0–2, best of three 15% Passion UA 12%, MIBR 11%
3						3–2
Opens against B8 (seed 11) in a best of one and wins it in 53% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 16% 23% 22% 16% 15% 8% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 53% PARIVISION 25%, Imperial 21% At 2–0, best of three 29% FaZe 11%, Natus Vincere 11% At 0–1 47% Ninjas in Pyjamas 20%, Imperial 17% At 0–2, best of three 20% Passion UA 11%, MIBR 10%
4						3–2
Opens against fnatic (seed 12) in a best of one and wins it in 48% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 11% 18% 19% 20% 20% 12% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 48% PARIVISION 20%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 13% At 2–0, best of three 24% Natus Vincere 11%, FaZe 11% At 0–1 52% Ninjas in Pyjamas 18%, B8 13% At 0–2, best of three 25% Passion UA 11%
5						2–3
Opens against Ninjas in Pyjamas (seed 13) in a best of one and wins it in 58% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 14% 21% 20% 19% 17% 9% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 58% fnatic 16%, PARIVISION 15% At 2–0, best of three 30% Natus Vincere 12% At 0–1 42% fnatic 15%, TYLOO 14% At 0–2, best of three 20% Passion UA 11%
6						1–3
Opens against PARIVISION (seed 14) in a best of one and wins it in 36% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 7% 14% 16% 21% 24% 18% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 36% Astralis 17%, MIBR 15% At 2–0, best of three 17% Natus Vincere 12% At 0–1 64% MIBR 15%, Ninjas in Pyjamas 14% At 0–2, best of three 33% Ninjas in Pyjamas 12%, Passion UA 11%
7						0–3
Opens against Imperial (seed 15) in a best of one and wins it in 45% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 11% 12% 24% 27% 20% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 45% TYLOO 12%, Passion UA 12% At 2–0, best of three 19% Natus Vincere 12%, Aurora 11% At 0–1 55% Passion UA 19%, TYLOO 18% At 0–2, best of three 32% Ninjas in Pyjamas 10%
8						3–2
Opens against FaZe (seed 16) in a best of one and wins it in 38% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 5% 10% 12% 23% 27% 23% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 38% M80 16%, MIBR 14% At 2–0, best of three 15% Natus Vincere 12%, Aurora 11% At 0–1 62% MIBR 17%, M80 16% At 0–2, best of three 37% FlyQuest 10%
9						2–3
Opens against Aurora (seed 1) in a best of one and wins it in 50% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 18% 26% 23% 14% 12% 7% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 50% Passion UA 12%, FlyQuest 11% At 2–0, best of three 30% PARIVISION 11%, FaZe 11% At 0–1 50% FlyQuest 20%, Passion UA 19% At 0–2, best of three 20% No single likely opponent
10						0–3
Opens against Natus Vincere (seed 2) in a best of one and wins it in 37% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 7% 14% 17% 21% 23% 18% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 37% B8 16%, M80 15% At 2–0, best of three 17% PARIVISION 12%, FaZe 11% At 0–1 63% M80 16%, B8 15% At 0–2, best of three 33% Passion UA 11%
11						3–1
Opens against Liquid (seed 3) in a best of one and wins it in 47% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 12% 20% 21% 18% 18% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 47% fnatic 16%, Astralis 13% At 2–0, best of three 24% Natus Vincere 12%, PARIVISION 11% At 0–1 53% FlyQuest 18%, TYLOO 14% At 0–2, best of three 24% Passion UA 11%
12						1–3
Opens against 3DMAX (seed 4) in a best of one and wins it in 52% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 13% 19% 20% 19% 18% 11% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 52% Astralis 18%, B8 15% At 2–0, best of three 26% Natus Vincere 13%, PARIVISION 12% At 0–1 48% TYLOO 16%, Astralis 13% At 0–2, best of three 24% Passion UA 11%
13						2–3
Opens against Astralis (seed 5) in a best of one and wins it in 42% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 6% 12% 14% 23% 25% 20% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 42% Liquid 15%, 3DMAX 15% At 2–0, best of three 18% Natus Vincere 12%, PARIVISION 11% At 0–1 58% 3DMAX 16%, Liquid 16% At 0–2, best of three 34% TYLOO 12%, Passion UA 11%
14						3–1
Opens against TYLOO (seed 6) in a best of one and wins it in 64% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 23% 27% 23% 12% 10% 5% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 64% Natus Vincere 21%, Liquid 20% At 2–0, best of three 36% Aurora 12%, Natus Vincere 10% At 0–1 36% Liquid 18%, Aurora 17% At 0–2, best of three 16% MIBR 11%, FlyQuest 11%
15						3–1
Opens against MIBR (seed 7) in a best of one and wins it in 55% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 9% 14% 16% 23% 23% 15% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 55% Natus Vincere 31%, Liquid 20% At 2–0, best of three 22% PARIVISION 10% At 0–1 45% Aurora 31%, Natus Vincere 19% At 0–2, best of three 27% TYLOO 12%, Passion UA 11%
16						3–0
Opens against Passion UA (seed 8) in a best of one and wins it in 62% of runs. 3–0 3–1 3–2 2–3 1–3 0–3 14% 20% 20% 19% 17% 10% Record Gets there Most often against, when there At 1–0 62% Aurora 50%, Natus Vincere 31% At 2–0, best of three 28% Liquid 12%, M80 11% At 0–1 38% Aurora 50%, Natus Vincere 19% At 0–2, best of three 21% FlyQuest 13%, TYLOO 12%

In our setEach slot has its own colour, and its strength is the chance. It steps up at 50%. Each row sums to 100.

How the sets did

3 of 10

for our set, which misses the stage. Before the first match it had a 24% chance of 5 or more.

Picking by seed

4 of 10

3–02 of 2

Natus Vincere Hit

PARIVISION Miss

3–1 or 3–26 of 6

Aurora Miss

Liquid Hit

Astralis Miss

M80 Miss

B8 Hit

FaZe Miss

0–32 of 2

Passion UA Miss

Ninjas in Pyjamas Miss

One stage is one draw, so a single result says little about the model. How our chances held up over the nine stages of the last three Majors is in the method.

How these numbers are made

Ours: every chance on this page, from 200,000 simulated runs of the stage on our per-map Elo rating. Forecast of 28 Nov 2025, model v1.5.
Valve's: the seeding, taken from the Regional Standings of 3 Nov 2025.
Pairings follow Valve's Major rulebook: round 1 is seed 1 against 9 and so on, later rounds pair within the same record by Difficulty Score and seed without rematches, and matches that can advance or eliminate a team are best of three.
The model's opinion: on the nine Swiss stages of Austin 2025, Budapest 2025 and Cologne 2026 the model was ahead of picking by seed, but not by more than chance can explain, so these numbers are not shown to beat seeding.
The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.