← all matches · ESL Pro League Season 23 Stage 1 · March 2, 2026
HEROIC vs Astralis
Astralis beat HEROIC 2–0 at ESL Pro League Season 23 Stage 1 on March 2, 2026 in a BO3 series.
Maps
| # | Map | HEROIC | Astralis | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dust2 | 13 | 16 | Astralis |
| 2 | Overpass | 10 | 13 | Astralis |
What the result was worth
Our Elo model favoured Astralis at 54% going in, and the result moved their rating +16 points to 1,554 as it stood that day.
The two had met 3 times before this, with Astralis ahead on 1–2 — so this result took the head-to-head to 2–2.
Astralis came into the series having won 3 of their previous 5 matches on record here.
Head to head before this match
HEROIC 2–1 Astralis across 3 meetings.
| Date | Event | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2025 | ESL Pro League Season 22 Stage 1 | Astralis 2–1 HEROIC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | Intel Extreme Masters Dallas 2025: European Qualifier | Astralis 0–2 HEROIC |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Intel Extreme Masters Rio 2024 | Astralis 0–2 HEROIC |
These maps, before this series
Each side's record on these maps going into the match — the series above is not counted, so the numbers are the form the two teams brought with them rather than the result of it.
| Map | HEROIC | Astralis |
|---|---|---|
| Dust2 | 23–23 | 6–23 |
| Overpass | 6–4 | 12–7 |
Form going in
Elo here is our own opponent-weighted rating as it stood on the day, replayed from the results available then — not where the two sides stand now, which is on strength ratings, where the method is written out. How often the model has been right is on the prediction accuracy page.
Not betting advice. Every percentage on this page describes what past results imply, not what will happen. The model knows match results and nothing else — it cannot see a roster change until the new lineup has played, and it has no opinion on map vetoes or on whether a match is online or on LAN. We publish its hit rate and calibration so you can judge it for yourself. No bookmaker odds or affiliate links appear on this site.