Prediction model accuracy
Our Elo strength model powers the win probabilities on every team head-to-head. Here's how it actually performed — each match graded against the prediction the model would have made from only the games before it, over the last 730 days.
When the model says it's X% confident, how often is it actually right? A well-calibrated model tracks the diagonal.
| Confidence | Actual win rate | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 54.6% | 1110 |
| 60–70% | 64.2% | 564 |
| 70–80% | 76.5% | 247 |
| 80–90% | 86.2% | 109 |
| 90–100% | 83.3% | 12 |
| Date | Model favorite | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | magic over GamerLegion | 55.9% | ✓ |
| Sep 26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas over SINNERS | 54% | ✓ |
| Sep 26 | K27 over EYEBALLERS | 51.9% | ✓ |
| Sep 26 | Alliance over 3DMAX | 53.5% | ✗ |
| Sep 25 | GamerLegion over K27 | 51.5% | ✓ |
| Sep 25 | magic over EYEBALLERS | 61.6% | ✓ |
| Sep 25 | 3DMAX over Ninjas in Pyjamas | 57.1% | ✗ |
| Sep 25 | Alliance over SINNERS | 62.6% | ✗ |
| Sep 23 | Luminosity over 3DMAX | 54.2% | ✗ |
| Sep 22 | Inner Circle over 3DMAX | 61.5% | ✗ |
| Sep 22 | B8 over Luminosity | 68% | ✗ |
| Sep 20 | Vitality over Aurora | 66.4% | ✓ |
| Sep 20 | Vitality over FURIA | 64.1% | ✓ |
| Sep 19 | FURIA over MIBR | 71% | ✓ |
| Sep 19 | Vitality over Aurora | 69% | ✗ |
| Sep 19 | 3DMAX over M80 | 52.5% | ✓ |
| Sep 19 | MOUZ over FURIA | 59.7% | ✗ |
| Sep 19 | BBL over Luminosity | 58.3% | ✗ |
| Sep 19 | MIBR over NRG | 68.3% | ✓ |
| Sep 18 | Vitality over FURIA | 66.3% | ✓ |
| Sep 18 | 3DMAX over INFINITE | 51% | ✓ |
| Sep 18 | Inner Circle over EYEBALLERS | 70.7% | ✗ |
| Sep 18 | INFINITE over EYEBALLERS | 57.6% | ✗ |
| Sep 18 | BBL over Liquid | 51.7% | ✓ |
| Sep 18 | BBL over EYEBALLERS | 63.6% | ✓ |
Not betting advice. Every percentage on this page describes what past results imply, not what will happen. The model knows match results and nothing else — it cannot see a roster change until the new lineup has played, and it has no opinion on map vetoes or on whether a match is online or on LAN. We publish its hit rate and calibration so you can judge it for yourself. No bookmaker odds or affiliate links appear on this site.