// MODEL BACKTEST · 730D
Prediction model accuracy
Our Elo strength model powers the win probabilities on every team head-to-head. Here's how it actually performed — each match graded against the prediction the model would have made from only the games before it, over the last 730 days.
56.5%
favorite won
35/62
correct predictions
0.2497
Brier score (lower is better)
Calibration
When the model says it's X% confident, how often is it actually right? A well-calibrated model tracks the diagonal.
| Confidence | Actual win rate | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 56.5% | 62 |
Recent predictions
| Date | Model favorite | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2 | Spirit over MOUZ | 55.6% | ✗ |
| Aug 1 | MOUZ over Astralis | 50.1% | ✓ |
| Aug 1 | Spirit over FaZe | 51.5% | ✓ |
| Jul 31 | FaZe over The MongolZ | 54.8% | ✓ |
| Jul 30 | MOUZ over 3DMAX | 51.5% | ✓ |
| Jul 26 | Spirit over 100 Thieves | 54.5% | ✓ |
| Jul 26 | The MongolZ over Wildcard | 52.2% | ✓ |
| Jul 26 | 3DMAX over FUT | 51.1% | ✓ |
| Jul 26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas over paiN | 52.1% | ✗ |
| Jul 25 | FOKUS over MOUZ | 50.2% | ✗ |
| Jul 24 | HEROIC over The MongolZ | 59.7% | ✗ |
| Jul 23 | FUT over SINNERS | 52.5% | ✓ |
| Jul 23 | Aurora over FOKUS | 56.3% | ✗ |
| Jul 22 | FaZe over EYEBALLERS | 56.5% | ✓ |
| Jul 18 | K27 over HEROIC | 51.3% | ✗ |
| Jul 18 | K27 over Ninjas in Pyjamas | 55.3% | ✓ |
| Jul 17 | K27 over 3DMAX | 52.4% | ✓ |
| Jul 17 | Phantom over K27 | 56.8% | ✗ |
| Jul 17 | Gentle Mates over 3DMAX | 53.3% | ✗ |
| Jul 16 | Gentle Mates over Ninjas in Pyjamas | 55.4% | ✗ |
| Jul 15 | K27 over Ninjas in Pyjamas | 54.4% | ✗ |
| Jul 12 | 9z over PARIVISION | 52.6% | ✓ |
| Jul 11 | FaZe over PARIVISION | 55.8% | ✗ |
| Jul 11 | Alliance over 9z | 52.6% | ✗ |
| Jul 10 | FaZe over BetBoom | 51% | ✓ |