Who's locked in — and who's grinding

Tier 1 invites go out off the Valve Regional Standings, so the teams inside the line lock in a full season of big events — while the rest race for Major qualification through open qualifiers and the odd tier 1½ LAN. This page pivots our invite projection onto teams: who is set up with regular tier 1 access next season, and who is on the outside. Each event is weighted by its impact on the VRS — a model read from prize pool, field strength and the next Major-cutoff timing.

Built off the same model as the Race to Tier 1 Invites.

A team is locked in once it is projected into at least half of the 4 global tier 1 events; the rest are grinding. Regional invites still show as chips but sit outside that count, so a team isn't judged on events its region can't attend. Season score sums the impact of every event a team is projected into — a relative index of how much VRS opportunity their season holds, not a points total. Teams are placed by projected invites at each event's cutoff, updated for results since the last official ranking, so the board can shift before an event locks. Event data via Liquipedia.

Not betting advice. Every percentage on this page describes what past results imply, not what will happen. The model knows match results and nothing else — it cannot see a roster change until the new lineup has played, and it has no opinion on map vetoes or on whether a match is online or on LAN. We publish its hit rate and calibration so you can judge it for yourself. No bookmaker odds or affiliate links appear on this site.