Race to Tier 1 Invites

Tier 1 events invite teams directly off the Valve Regional Standings (the closed partner leagues ended in 2023). Organisers pick how deep to go, but a global top 12 block is the line most tier 1 invites anchor on — and staying inside it also keeps a team clear of the tier-2 eligibility ceiling Valve applies below #12. This page tracks who's safely inside, who's on the bubble, and who's close enough that a single result could flip the cut.

Major seeding is a separate race with its own snapshot — see the Race to the Major.

About P(top 12): a Monte Carlo estimate of each team finishing in the top 12 at the invite cutoff on Nov 2, 2026, simulating the upcoming matches before then, ranked by a form rating (recent results weighted by opponent strength and margin) rather than by VRS points — shown alongside the official VRS points. Teams we have little match data for start from their VRS points on that same rating scale, and the field simulated for the cutoff is the global top 60, not just the rows printed below. The "Δ vs cutoff" column is the live points gap to #12. Momentum reads form against standing: Breaking in/Climbing means current form would push a team up to or past the cut by the next update, At risk/Sliding means they're inside now but trending to be overtaken.

Not betting advice. Every percentage on this page describes what past results imply, not what will happen. The model knows match results and nothing else — it cannot see a roster change until the new lineup has played, and it has no opinion on map vetoes or on whether a match is online or on LAN. We publish its hit rate and calibration so you can judge it for yourself. No bookmaker odds or affiliate links appear on this site.