Race to Tier 1 Invites
Tier 1 events invite teams directly off the Valve Regional Standings (the closed partner leagues ended in 2023). Organisers pick how deep to go, but a global top 12 block is the line most tier 1 invites anchor on — and staying inside it also keeps a team clear of the tier-2 eligibility ceiling Valve applies below #12. This page tracks who's safely inside, who's on the bubble, and who's close enough that a single result could flip the cut.
Major seeding is a separate race with its own snapshot — see the Race to the Major.
| # | Team | VRS | Δ Cut | Elo | P(top 12) | Verdict | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spirit | 2,011 | +326 | 1563 (12m) | 100% | Safe | – Holding |
| 2 | Falcons | 1,950 | +265 | 1592 (11m) | 100% | Safe | – Holding |
| 3 | MOUZ | 1,873 | +188 | 1564 (9m) | 99.9% | Safe | – Holding |
| 4 | 9z | 1,847 | +162 | 1550 (15m) | 99.9% | Safe | – Holding |
| 5 | Vitality | 1,836 | +151 | 1489 (7m) | 96.4% | Safe | – Holding |
| 6 | Natus Vincere | 1,802 | +117 | 1490 (5m) | 93.2% | Safe | – Holding |
| 7 | Legacy | 1,773 | +88 | 1480 (5m) | 87.8% | Likely | – Holding |
| 8 | FURIA | 1,771 | +86 | 1540 (10m) | 96.5% | Safe | – Holding |
| 9 | BetBoom | 1,742 | +57 | 1498 (11m) | 83.9% | Likely | – Holding |
| 10 | Aurora | 1,690 | +5 | 1524 (9m) | 85% | Likely | – Holding |
| 11 | G2 | 1,688 | +3 | 1492 (9m) | 60.9% | Likely | – Holding |
| 12 | PARIVISION | 1,685 | 0 | 1490 (10m) | 49.6% | Coin-flip | – Holding |
| Top 12 ↑ — the cutoff tier 1 invites anchor on · teams below are outside it | |||||||
| 13 | FaZe | 1,677 | -8 | 1551 (11m) | 78.5% | Likely | ▲ Breaking in |
| 14 | FUT | 1,663 | -22 | 1470 (7m) | 19.3% | Outside looking in | – Holding |
| 15 | The MongolZ | 1,637 | -48 | 1508 (8m) | 25.4% | Outside looking in | – Holding |
| 16 | MIBR | 1,611 | -74 | 1479 (5m) | 9.6% | Long shot | – Holding |
| 17 | Alliance | 1,583 | -102 | 1503 (7m) | 9.2% | Long shot | – Holding |
| 18 | TYLOO | 1,565 | -120 | 1511 (5m) | 5.1% | Long shot | – Holding |
About P(top 12): a Monte Carlo estimate of each team finishing in the top 12 at the invite cutoff on Nov 2, 2026, simulating the upcoming matches before then, ranked by a form rating (recent results weighted by opponent strength and margin) rather than by VRS points — shown alongside the official VRS points. The "Δ vs cutoff" column is the live points gap to #12. Momentum reads form against standing: Breaking in/Climbing means current form would push a team up to or past the cut by the next update, At risk/Sliding means they're inside now but trending to be overtaken.
Who's in line for the next invites
For each upcoming tier 1 event, the projected invite line at its cutoff — updated for results since the last official ranking. P(invite) estimates each team's chance of landing inside the direct-invite slots.
Esports World Cup 2026 86Prime VRS farm
| # | Team | Official | P(invite) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spirit | 1 | 100% | Safe |
| 2 | Falcons | 2 | 100% | Safe |
| 3 | MOUZ | 3 | 100% | Safe |
| 4 | 9z | 4 | 100% | Safe |
| 5 | Vitality | 5 | 100% | Safe |
| 6 | Natus Vincere | 6 | 100% | Safe |
| 7 | Legacy | 7 | 100% | Safe |
| 8 | FURIA | 8 | 100% | Safe |
| 9 | BetBoom | 9 | 100% | Safe |
| 10 | Aurora | 10 | 99.9% | Safe |
| 11 | G2 | 11 | 99.9% | Safe |
| 12 | PARIVISION | 12 | 99.9% | Safe |
| 13 | FaZe | 13 | 99.7% | Safe |
| 14 | FUT | 14 | 99.4% | Safe |
| 15 | The MongolZ | 15 | 98.8% | Safe |
| 16 | MIBR | 16 | 98% | Safe |
| 17 | Alliance | 17 | 96.3% | Safe |
| 18 | TYLOO | 18 | 94.3% | Safe |
| 19 | Astralis | 19 | 90.9% | Safe |
| 20 | B8 | 20 | 86.7% | Likely |
| 21 | BIG | 21 | 80.4% | Likely |
| 22 | GamerLegion | 22 | 72.2% | Likely |
| 23 | magic | 23 | 65.2% | Likely |
| 24 | Luminosity | 24 | 55.6% | Coin-flip |
| Invite line · top 24 | ||||
| 25 | Inner Circle | 25 | 44.9% | Coin-flip |
| 26 | paiN | 26 | 35.6% | Coin-flip |
| 27 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 27 | 26.8% | Outside looking in |
BLAST Open Fall 2026 86Prime VRS farm
| # | Team | Official | P(invite) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spirit | 1 | 99.6% | Safe |
| 2 | Falcons | 2 | 99.3% | Safe |
| 3 | MOUZ | 3 | 98.9% | Safe |
| 4 | 9z | 4 | 97.6% | Safe |
| 5 | Vitality | 5 | 96.5% | Safe |
| 6 | Natus Vincere | 6 | 94.1% | Safe |
| 7 | Legacy | 7 | 91.3% | Safe |
| 8 | FURIA | 8 | 86.9% | Likely |
| 9 | BetBoom | 9 | 80.7% | Likely |
| 10 | Aurora | 10 | 72.3% | Likely |
| 11 | G2 | 11 | 64.9% | Likely |
| 12 | PARIVISION | 12 | 55.6% | Coin-flip |
| Invite line · top 12 | ||||
| 13 | FaZe | 13 | 44.5% | Coin-flip |
| 14 | FUT | 14 | 35.5% | Coin-flip |
| 15 | The MongolZ | 15 | 26.5% | Outside looking in |
FISSURE Playground 5 78Prime VRS farm
| # | Team | Official | P(invite) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spirit | 1 | 100% | Safe |
| 2 | Falcons | 2 | 100% | Safe |
| 3 | MOUZ | 3 | 99.9% | Safe |
| 4 | 9z | 4 | 99.7% | Safe |
| 5 | Vitality | 5 | 99.4% | Safe |
| 6 | Natus Vincere | 6 | 98.7% | Safe |
| 7 | Legacy | 7 | 97.9% | Safe |
| 8 | FURIA | 8 | 96.3% | Safe |
| 9 | BetBoom | 9 | 94.2% | Safe |
| 10 | Aurora | 10 | 90.8% | Safe |
| 11 | G2 | 11 | 86.2% | Likely |
| 12 | PARIVISION | 12 | 80.3% | Likely |
| 13 | FaZe | 13 | 73.2% | Likely |
| 14 | FUT | 14 | 64.7% | Likely |
| 15 | The MongolZ | 15 | 54.9% | Coin-flip |
| Invite line · top 15 | ||||
| 16 | MIBR | 16 | 45.1% | Coin-flip |
| 17 | Alliance | 17 | 35.3% | Coin-flip |
| 18 | TYLOO | 18 | 26.5% | Outside looking in |
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 85Prime VRS farm
| # | Team | Official | P(invite) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spirit | 1 | 77.9% | Likely |
| 2 | Falcons | 2 | 69.1% | Likely |
| 3 | MOUZ | 3 | 60.3% | Likely |
| 4 | 9z | 4 | 50.5% | Coin-flip |
| Invite line · top 4 | ||||
| 5 | Vitality | 5 | 40.6% | Coin-flip |
| 6 | Natus Vincere | 6 | 31.5% | Outside looking in |
| 7 | Legacy | 7 | 23.5% | Outside looking in |
Event data via Liquipedia.