// Event · Tier B

Journey Autumn 2026

2 Oct – 3 Oct 2026 LAN 24 teams $20,000 30 days before the cut
Race impact ?
66
4th largest of 17 before the cut

Why it matters

Facts beside our number
Valve's event weight
0.37
From its prize pool of $20,000, through Valve's curve. It scales what every result here is worth.
Teams in the race known to attend
9
SportsBetExpertNinjas in Pyjamas100 ThievesJiJieHaoEternal FireBC.GameVocaFOKUSSINNERS
Between 1 and 99% for the Major, on the event's list or in bo3's fixtures.
Timing
30 days before the cut
TodayCut · 2 Nov
Starts in 1 day. Everything here still counts on the day.

Race impact is ours: how many points of Major chance this event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race. For each team, how likely a top-half or a bottom-half finish is here in our runs, and how far apart its chance of the Major is after each. After the cut it is 0.

Who it matters to

9 teams in the race known to attend

Each team's chance of the Major today, and after each finish here, from our simulation's runs. The first figure is where they stand today.

TeamTodayWhen it pays off
Out before the quarter-finals
3%
-15 points
Quarter-final
25%
+7 points
Semi-final
45%
+26 points
Final
66%
+47 points
Win it
—
too few runs

SportsBetExpert need a quarter-final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 19% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 15 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs HAVU, 2 Oct SportsBetExpert's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
20%
-24 points
Quarter-final
40%
-3 points
Semi-final
47%
+3 points
Final
60%
+17 points
Win it
79%
+35 points

Ninjas in Pyjamas need a semi-final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 43% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 24 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs XEPT, 2 Oct Ninjas in Pyjamas's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
14%
-29 points
Quarter-final
31%
-11 points
Semi-final
43%
0 points
Final
52%
+9 points
Win it
76%
+34 points

100 Thieves need a semi-final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 43% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 29 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs Anteiku, 2 Oct 100 Thieves's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
1%
-7 points
Quarter-final
6%
-2 points
Semi-final
10%
+2 points
Final
19%
+11 points
Win it
55%
+47 points

JiJieHao need a semi-final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 8% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 7 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs EAC EXTRA, 2 Oct JiJieHao's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
9%
-9 points
Quarter-final
13%
-5 points
Semi-final
18%
0 points
Final
25%
+7 points
Win it
43%
+25 points

Eternal Fire need a semi-final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 18% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 9 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs Nordic Partners, 2 Oct Eternal Fire's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
-2 points
Quarter-final
2%
-1 points
Semi-final
2%
0 points
Final
10%
+7 points
Win it
—
too few runs

BC.Game need a final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 2% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 2 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs Glitch, 2 Oct BC.Game's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
6%
-16 points
Quarter-final
19%
-3 points
Semi-final
40%
+18 points
Final
61%
+39 points
Win it
78%
+55 points

Voca need a semi-final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 22% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 16 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs BASEMENT BOYS, 2 Oct Voca's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
-2 points
Quarter-final
2%
-1 points
Semi-final
3%
+1 points
Final
7%
+4 points
Win it
20%
+17 points

FOKUS need a semi-final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 3% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 2 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs MTX, 2 Oct FOKUS's page →
Out before the quarter-finals
<1%
-1 points
Quarter-final
<1%
-1 points
Semi-final
2%
0 points
Final
3%
+2 points
Win it
7%
+5 points

SINNERS need a semi-final for this to help. Anything short of it leaves them at or below the 2% they hold today. Going out before the quarter-finals costs them 1 points of Major chance while rivals play on.

First match: vs Lilmix, 2 Oct SINNERS's page →

The field

24 known · strongest first, by our Elo
In the race · 43%
100 Thieves
Europe #20
Elo 1,623 · 35th
In the race · 43%
Ninjas in Pyjamas
Europe #22
Elo 1,618 · 36th
In the race · 18%
Eternal Fire
Europe #51
Elo 1,614 · 39th
In the race · 2%
SINNERS
Europe #44
Elo 1,586 · 47th
In the race · 22%
Voca
Americas #17
Elo 1,576 · 51st
In the race · 3%
FOKUS
Europe #39
Elo 1,572 · 52nd
In the race · 8%
JiJieHao
Europe #25
Elo 1,564 · 57th
Sangal
Europe #234
Elo 1,558 · 60th
In the race · 19%
SportsBetExpert
Americas #12
Elo 1,545 · 65th
In the race · 2%
BC.Game
Europe #30
Elo 1,541 · 66th
Sashi
Europe #37
Elo 1,538 · 67th
9INE
Europe #54
Elo 1,524 · 70th
Johnny Speeds
Europe #79
Elo 1,487 · 97th
BASEMENT BOYS
Europe #65
Elo 1,471 · 113th
BBL
Europe #40
Elo 1,459 · 127th
Prestige
Europe · no Valve standing yet
Elo 1,414 · 175th
HAVU
Europe #90
Elo 1,387 · 216th
EAC EXTRA
Outside the top 40
Elo 1,379 · 231st
Nordic Partners
Europe #94
Elo 1,361 · 265th
MTX
Europe #218
Elo 1,323 · 449th
Lilmix
Europe #162
Elo 1,238 · 532nd
XEPT
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
G
Glitch
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
A
Anteiku
Outside the top 40
No Elo yet
How these numbers are made
  • Ours: race impact, the chances, the finishes and Elo, from our forecast of 1 October (how our Elo is scored). Valve's: the standings and the event weight.
  • Race impact is how many points of Major chance the event is expected to move, summed over the teams in the race.
  • Event weight is the prize pool through Valve's curve. A stage or qualifier also takes half the pool of each finished event it feeds.
  • The whole method: the model, its sources, how well it has done and what it cannot see.