← all matches · PGL Astana 2025 · May 16, 2025
Natus Vincere vs Astralis
Astralis beat Natus Vincere 2–1 at PGL Astana 2025 on May 16, 2025 in a BO3 series.
Maps
| # | Map | Natus Vincere | Astralis | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nuke | 13 | 16 | Astralis |
| 2 | Mirage | 13 | 8 | Natus Vincere |
| 3 | Ancient | 6 | 13 | Astralis |
What the result was worth
Our Elo model made Natus Vincere the favourite here, giving Astralis a 36% chance going in. The upset moved Astralis's rating +15 points to 1,519 as it stood that day.
The two had met 2 times before this, with Astralis ahead on 1–1 — so this result took the head-to-head to 2–1.
Astralis came into the series having won 3 of their previous 5 matches on record here.
Head to head before this match
Natus Vincere 1–1 Astralis across 2 meetings.
| Date | Event | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | BLAST Bounty Spring 2025: Closed Qualifier | Natus Vincere 2–0 Astralis |
| Oct 30, 2024 | BLAST Premier: World Final 2024 | Natus Vincere 0–2 Astralis |
These maps, before this series
Each side's record on these maps going into the match — the series above is not counted, so the numbers are the form the two teams brought with them rather than the result of it.
| Map | Natus Vincere | Astralis |
|---|---|---|
| Nuke | 6–6 | 11–7 |
| Mirage | 18–11 | 7–15 |
| Ancient | 15–8 | 12–12 |
Form going in
Natus Vincere
Astralis
Elo here is our own opponent-weighted rating as it stood on the day, replayed from the results available then — not where the two sides stand now, which is on strength ratings, where the method is written out. How often the model has been right is on the prediction accuracy page.
Not betting advice. Every percentage on this page describes what past results imply, not what will happen. The model knows match results and nothing else — it cannot see a roster change until the new lineup has played, and it has no opinion on map vetoes or on whether a match is online or on LAN. We publish its hit rate and calibration so you can judge it for yourself. No bookmaker odds or affiliate links appear on this site.